Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

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Razor
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by Razor »

Oh dear god, are we done with this yet?
Christchurch Rocks
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by Weather Watcher »

I wonder if that photo is actually of one of the waterspouts that occurred around Auckland a few months ago (I can't remember the date). It sort of looks like a waterspout.

Later edit: The waterspout date was 14 February 2012. There are several photos on the internet of the one off Takapuna, which would be in the general direction WAITNT has indicated. They look similar to the above one. The photo may not be a hoax, just a mistake????.

Just a thought.
spwill
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by spwill »

Razor wrote:Oh dear god, are we done with this yet?
My feelings as well Razor and thanks Tony for closing the thread for 24hrs.


Perhaps we should start a thread about the inability of MetService to warn for such severe thunderstorm events, they also missed a severe hail storm in Chch in September and failed to to issue warnings while the event was ongoing .
WIATNT
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by WIATNT »

spwill, so are we saying that being confronted with evidence to make one rethink ones view is OK if it is targeted toward Metdervice, but not stormchasers reaching conclusions based on false and half-backed evidence?

I'm an analyst by trade. I work across many disciplines. Having seen claims that there was a tornado in Hobsonville (just down the road) I looked for evidence. All I found was evidence that it was simply a severe localised storm.

Claims were made by experts that wind speeds of 110 kph such as those reported couldn't be due to a squall, it had to be a tornado. And then we found that that airspeed (Whenuapai) and another one recorded of 150kph (Snapper Rock) were several kilometers away from the most severe damage and in the case of snapper rock in a totally different suburb.

On this forum the Tornado Defenders put up suggestions that it was an invisible tornado hidden by the rain, and yet a single second hand observation of 'swirling clouds' interpreted as a tornado by a Joe Average was prima facie evidence that it was a tornado.

Video evidence taken in the eye of the storm showed straight line violent wind and rain with no evidence of vortex or updraft.

A picture presented as a photo of the tornado was proven to be taken some 9km from ground zero facing a funnel perhaps 5km further way over the Hauraki Gulf.

Despite the storm taking place in broad daylight with hundreds of people in the storm's path and thousands able to see any tornado come and go, there appears to be no video or images of a tornado, only straight line vicious winds and rain.

Contributors on here have been bagging Metservice for not predicting/forecasting such extreme weather in advance.

I'm perplexed that these critics try and flick prima facie evidence from their collective fingers when the evidence gets in the way of a good theory.

I have no interest in storm chasing, but I have plenty of interest in statements made as fact when they are assumptions only. When evidence dismantles assumptions, sometimes it is difficult to see the evidence for what it is.

If Philip Duncan's alternative is correct, that this was perhaps the most violent localised squall/storm ever recorded, then how could that have been forecast?

I would challenge this forum to put up alternatives for the Tornado theory, look at the evidence, analyse it and see what falls out the other end.

I tell clients I'll look at the evidence, try and verify it, critically analyse it, let the evidence speak for itself in forming my advice...

I challenge this forum to step back, collate the evidence, critique it and move on... using this extreme event to bag Metservice is probably not a wise move when the evidence being used to date is actually shifting sand.


Tease out the evidence... the indisputable facts, and take a fresh look.

Philip Duncan... any thoughts?

Perhaps Philip Duncan could explain if he still believes it was a tornado, and if so, how certain he is now, and why does he hold that view.
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tgsnoopy
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

spwill wrote:
Razor wrote:Oh dear god, are we done with this yet?
My feelings as well Razor and thanks Tony for closing the thread for 24hrs.
Ditto, in fact I thanked Tony by PM.
Flutterbye
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by Flutterbye »

Razor wrote:Oh dear god, are we done with this yet?

I agree.

'Like a dog with a bone' springs to mind....

Tornado or not, it was severe - it's not the first time that Metservice have put out warnings after an event and it won't be the last. They have to acknowledge that they don't ALWAYs get it right!
jamie
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by jamie »

Flutterbye wrote:
Razor wrote:Oh dear god, are we done with this yet?

I agree.

'Like a dog with a bone' springs to mind....

Tornado or not, it was severe - it's not the first time that Metservice have put out warnings after an event and it won't be the last. They have to acknowledge that they don't ALWAYs get it right!
=D>
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by WIATNT »

Flutterbye, credibility is what's at stake... both sides... weather watchers and metservice. One's argument is much more credible if one argues from a point of knowledge/evidence rather than emotion and supposition.

Tornado or not... it certainly was severe. If it wasn't a tornado (and the evidence does not show that it was) then it was certainly an extremely extreme local event.

If they had put out a warning, what difference would it have made? I suspect very little.
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by jamie »

WIATNT wrote: If they had put out a warning, what difference would it have made? I suspect very little.
So why even have them and why issue them after the fact :-k
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by NZstorm »

Photo showing a missile through the wall of a weatherboard house at Hobsonville.
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tgsnoopy
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

WIATNT wrote:If it wasn't a tornado (and the evidence does not show that it was) then it was certainly an extremely extreme local event.
Oh FFS stop flogging the poor horse! :mad:
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by WIATNT »

tgsnoopy... so you can't critique the evidence relating to whether it was a tornado or not? Play the ball...

Go on, have a go! :-)
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by spwill »

WIATNT wrote:spwill, so are we saying that being confronted with evidence to make one rethink ones view is OK if it is targeted toward Metdervice
.
WIATNT, you gave us a list of the facts as you saw them several pages back,great, but I noticed you had given no consideration to points/ reports others on this forum had made.

MetService failing to provide severe watch/warnings is more important than this discussoin about how damage was done at Hobsonville.
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Cook
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by Cook »

Is this a weather forum or a forum about the Metservice?
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by WIATNT »

Spwill, what about credibility? If Metservice issued warnings everytime it looked like there might be a thunderstorm they would soon lose credibility as even Philip Duncan acknowledges it's very hit and miss.

Do you know if it is actually possible to forecast micro-storms with any degree of precision? I'd seen weather forecasts of wild weather a few days out. Here (about 6km west of Hobsonville) the temp rose mid morning, very tropical... and the clouds were getting blacker...I went out to mow the lawn before it rained... I opened the front door and it just started teaming down... no wind, no warning... there was some lightning and the power went out... turned out our transformer blew up and had to be replaced... ups to Vector who left at 11pm...

If you go on about metservices credibility while using a discredited argument case definition, then you lose your argument's strength.

Call it was it was... an explosive storm. a weather bomb... but to call it a tornado when the evidence doesn't stack up just gets you into a discussion where your position is on sinking sand... regardless of how well the house is designed, the foundations need to be solid.

I've noticed no one had debunked the evidence I've put forward dismantling the tornado theory.

I saw a video on NZ Herald with Philip Duncan saying that a tornado hadn't been confirmed. That was late afternoon. I've seen a metservice blog soon after the event referring to a tornado being reported... I have not seen and evidence that it actually was a tornado. The evidence seen suggests strongly it wasn't.

Everyone agrees it was a severe explosive storm. Was there evidence available to metservice that there would be a violent explosive storm. I doubt it... at least not with any certainty.

Philip Duncan forecast the low probability of local tournados... but where? Would anyone change their actions knowing that? I doubt it. Would the workers at Hobsonville who were killed have moved their truck a metre further away from the tilt slabs thinking they might blow over in a a freak gust of wind? I doubt it. Would the misses get her washing in... maybe.
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by Flutterbye »

Cook wrote:Is this a weather forum or a forum about the Metservice?
So ONE thread where Metservice is being discussed turns it into a forum about Metservice? Besides, Metservice is about the weather and they shouldn't be so damned defensive when the general public, (read 'taxpayer'), feel that they've been slow off the mark when it comes to a severe weather event.
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by WIATNT »

spwill wrote: WIATNT, you gave us a list of the facts as you saw them several pages back,great, but I noticed you had given no consideration to points/ reports others on this forum had made.
Spwill, I have... I've criically evaluated all the evidence... someone posted a photo of THE tornado... I said, ok, let's work out the location. Folk did so off list and we found where the photo was taken within 5m... and proved it was a photo of some other event at some other time...

I've considered every point made... and critically evaluated them... have you?
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by spwill »

WIATNT wrote:

Philip Duncan forecast the low probability of local tournados... .
So we can say Philip Duncan/WeatherWatch outperformed MetService.

I can only repeat WIATNT,you gave us a list of the facts as you saw them several pages back but you had given no consideration to points/ reports others on this forum had made.
ben g
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by ben g »

GraemeWi wrote:Image

This one was on the TVNZ website and the source credited to Christina Woods
I recon the photo was taken at least a year ago, from around tawa drive in Albany, with greville road and the rosedale landfill, now grassed over to the right. the light poles of the northern motorway running across the picture. Spout would be around browns bay, few awesome videos of it on YouTube. Keep up the debate.
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tgsnoopy
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

WIATNT wrote:tgsnoopy... so you can't critique the evidence relating to whether it was a tornado or not? Play the ball...

Go on, have a go! :-)
Do us a favour, take a hike. I don't appreciate you appearing out of the blue and then ramming your thoughts down our throats. I have no opinion as I haven't bothered to look at the evidence, nor do I intend to. There are however many others on here that know way more than me who might otherwise bother to debate it if you were reasonable.
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Tornado Tim
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Hey all,
Please remember the forum rules when you post: here Point Number 5

I don't want this thread shutdown due to a flame war, stick to factual points and don't make it personal!
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by WIATNT »

spwill wrote:
WIATNT wrote:

Philip Duncan forecast the low probability of local tournados... .
So we can say Philip Duncan/WeatherWatch outperformed MetService.

I can only repeat WIATNT,you gave us a list of the facts as you saw them several pages back but you had given no consideration to points/ reports others on this forum had made.
Spwill, how can you say I gave no consideration to points/reports others on this forum had made?

When I asked for evidence it was a tornado Someone posted a photo of THE tornado... I critically evaluated it... asked for help to locate where it was taken from... others asked around and we located the position to within 5 metres some 10 km away some time previous to this storm. How is that not considering others points reports.

Someone said their evidence was one person seeing some swirling cloud and based on that they said it was a tornado so it must be a tornado. Someone else said it was an invisible tornado... I looked at the videos and concluded the evidence was that it was a violent straight line storm...

How is that not considering points others have made?

I've been open to accepting it was a tornado... if someone can show me the evidence. Philip said the winds were reported at 110/150km consistant with a tornado... except they were recorded some 5km from the damage was done...

I've critically evaluated all the evidence claiming it was a tornado... the evidence suggests it wasn't...

Show me the evidence that it was... not someone seeing swirling clouds... not a video taken 10k away on another day pointing away from this storm. Not a hole in a house wall... There were hundreds of witnesses, if not thousands... where are the photos/videos/descriptive accounts of a twister? There are none that I've found so far.

Show me the evidence... that's all I've asked. If you can't do that then the emperor is naked.

By all means scoff at metservice... but make sure you're standing on solid evidential ground before you do.
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

WIATNT wrote:Philip Duncan forecast the low probability of local tournados... but where?
Actually that may have been another Weatherwatch forecaster. Philip may have agreed or just passed on the forecast.
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

I must say members on this forum have had alot more patience then I would have had with you, but its time to drop it, if you have nothing construct to say don't say it.
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Re: Moist NW flow and severe weather, Upper NI, 5 Dec -

Unread post by jamie »

I think one of the biggest pieces of evidence that there was a tornado embedded somewhere in there is the different destruction patterns observed by people on this forum who have a lot of experience with analyzing "was it straight winds or tornado"? Go back previous years on this forum and you will see we do critically evaluate the evidence of the destruction on quite a regular basis and come to a conclusion. You are failing to evaluate the debris field.

Straight line winds blow straight. It causes a mono direction of debris. Tornados have debris at random. From my understanding we have two different debris fields within the wide damage path.

I'm walking away from this because you clearly have nothing better to do than repeat your points. Points taken. Do we have to agree.....no. Please don't expect a reply from me when you write your next essay on here!