Ex-cyclone Evan near NZ, and Christmas Weather

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Fri 21/12/2012 12:40

Probably time to leave the Evan thread in the weather abroad area, and move discussion in here.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 21/12/2012 21:02

cool to watch the collision going on the moment on the sat animation
ripping shreads out of the cloud sheet on the western side of former TC Evan
as the westerly pattern from the tasman collides with it

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 22/12/2012 07:37

Auckland should miss a lot of the rain due to sheltering effects in E flow.

Looks like humid, low clouds/drizzle for Xmas day,

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 22/12/2012 07:54

Yes, Auckland may end up with low clouds /drizzle showers Xmas day due to the high humidity and onshore flow, the weather will tend to brighten in the afternoon.

Looks like sunny spells could lead to a few heavy afternoon/evening showers across the North Island and upper South Island due to the high dewpoint levels.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 22/12/2012 08:06

wow, check out the new convection that developed overnight...
if it does that as it moves over, there will be heavy rain...
if it slides over the top of the auckland area and we get a NE flow, then Auckland is in the firing line for rain

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 22/12/2012 11:33

Its been in the models for a few runs now, looks like much of the South Island will get a good dose of rain on the 26/27th December.
Canterbury could be looking at up to 50mm or slightly more with some heavy falls at times, so im sure that will go down well with the early campers.
A big swing in the origional outlook of sunny weather for this period.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 22/12/2012 12:12

ex Evan is coming in fast now!

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Sat 22/12/2012 13:02

Jasestorm wrote:Its been in the models for a few runs now, looks like much of the South Island will get a good dose of rain on the 26/27th December.
Canterbury could be looking at up to 50mm or slightly more with some heavy falls at times, so im sure that will go down well with the early campers.
A big swing in the origional outlook of sunny weather for this period.

Looks more up the east coast to me, not so much a chch event.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 22/12/2012 19:07

Yes.looking like a cool event as the system moves over here. Christmas Day looks to be a hot one however with temperatures likely to hit a record breaking Christmas Day temperature of 35C.

...but then it could only get to 18C

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 22/12/2012 19:24

I see, that MetService in it's long range forecast have said that exTC Evan is moving east into the Tasman Sea?
I'm confused?

QUOTE:
On Tuesday, Christmas day, the low is expected to move east into the Tasman Sea

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sat 22/12/2012 21:34

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Yes.looking like a cool event as the system moves over here. Christmas Day looks to be a hot one however with temperatures likely to hit a record breaking Christmas Day temperature of 35C.

...but then it could only get to 18C

They only have Waipara on 24deg and Timaru 22deg for Christmas Day so why would CHCH be 31deg i wonder

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sun 23/12/2012 07:06

I see the MS now have CHCH on a more realistic high of 28 deg for Christmas day

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 23/12/2012 07:43

Richard wrote:I see the MS now have CHCH on a more realistic high of 28 deg for Christmas day

Looks like very high temperatures inland South Island. Certainly topping 30C inland Otago/Canterbury.

The coastal NE should keep Christchurch and Dunedins' temperature down.

Temps could reach 30C in some parts of the lower North Island but cloud cover will limit heating.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sun 23/12/2012 09:30

NZstorm wrote:
Richard wrote:I see the MS now have CHCH on a more realistic high of 28 deg for Christmas day
Looks like very high temperatures inland South Island. Certainly topping 30C inland Otago/Canterbury.

The coastal NE should keep Christchurch and Dunedins' temperature down.

Temps could reach 30C in some parts of the lower North Island but cloud cover will limit heating.

Yes think so,she's going to be very hot one in this valley,thankfully we'll be near CHCH mostly on the day

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Sun 23/12/2012 09:43

Christmas forecasts for the Waikato seem to be OK, Mostly Cloud turning Mostly Sunny with a chance of showers.
Not too bad really

Manukau heads obs · Sun 23/12/2012 09:45

looking less impressive now...for rain...
still it is dragging down moisture in the flow around the high..

Manukau heads obs · Sun 23/12/2012 10:36

I see M/S do now have heavy rain warnings out:
http://metservice.com/national/warnings ... r-warnings

Cloud thickening here now, looking more like rain now

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 23/12/2012 12:57

SE wind is freshening now, overcaste. Sunshine today would have seen the temperature really come up.
Currently 24C, dewpoint 18C.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 23/12/2012 17:37

interesting article here:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/8113055 ... -Christmas
refers to the unusually very tall CB towers detected by the new TRIMM satellite, when Evan was it its peak

iomkiwi · Unread post by **iomkiwi** » Sun 23/12/2012 19:48

Rain has finally set in here - and over in Russell to by the look of it.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 23/12/2012 19:55

Looking forward to the substantial falls over the Canterbury Plains on Boxing Day. No thunder with it but some serious drizzle fallage will be quite appreciated here.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 23/12/2012 22:02

a warm night...here...21C at 10pm...

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 23/12/2012 22:39

Manukau heads obs wrote:a warm night...here...21C at 10pm...

Interestingly Metservice is showing Auckland still on 22C. It has been 20C here for about 3 hours now.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Sun 23/12/2012 22:44

Yes its going to be one uncomfortable night if you don't have air-con....

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sun 23/12/2012 23:22

Yep still like 22 with 90+% humidity at 11.30pm. Glad there is no work tomorrow.

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