NZ Weather Forum

With a high risk in many central areas of the North island and moderate in northern inland areas of the South Island,an appropriate thread is needed.

Ive got 4 hours work in Amberley and plan to be home early afternoon in readiness,look forward to seeing if the mornings warnings change from this evenings.

Nice! I'll be chasing Waikato stuff for sure. Noting overly long distance tho.

Depends how they develop around here as to whether i go for a drive or not Jamie,where i am is just on the edge of the mod risk line so a drive nearer to Hamner could be on the cards.

Ill check the models in the morning, if anything looks good I will probably head up from chch.

From my quick look nothing thundery north of Hamilton due to warm upper level air but we will still get showers.
There is a shortwave crossing the country which should lead to some lightning south of Taupo where the upper level air is colder.

Will head north if things look ok with Steve. I think up where you are Richard could be ok tomorrow, perhaps even better then the Nelson Lakes area. Should be converging winds in the area plus good afternoon temperatures.

Chch will have a brisk NE wind tomorrow but up there it could be quite nice

i dont know what to make of the sky this morning,certainly not one that you would get all excited about but then the satellite clearly shows the shortwave mensoned by Steven which looks like moving over NZ during the day,so it will be interesting

Should team up Aaron and Steve we could say meet at the Hurunui pub,what do ya reckon?

Not sure how excited I'll be over this, but will watch as things develop and may consider heading into the Waikato.

The mod risk has now shifted further north but still in the low risk,oh well,well see.
The low cloud has cleared here now leaving patchy middle to high cloud

A trip down to Otorohanga, Waitomo and Te Kuiti might be on the cards for me. Will see how things develop early on, then make the call to head off.

I see they have moved the risk into Auckland now

Looks like a convergence zone will run down the west of the North Island from Auckland to Wanganui.
The convective temperature for heavy showers is 23C which should be easily achieved despite all the cloud cover.
The farmers will welcome the precip.

NZstorm wrote:Looks like a convergence zone will run down the west of the North Island from Auckland to Wanganui.
The convective temperature for heavy showers is 23C which should be easily achieved despite all the cloud cover.
The farmers will welcome the precip.

Whats the trigger temp for a decent thunder storm?

This Thunderstorm watch area is massive!

Will there be much on show today with all the cloud cover ?

spwill wrote:Will there be much on show today with all the cloud cover ?

This is my concern. It might be one of those days where you cant actually see much.

Richard wrote:
Should team up Aaron and Steve we could say meet at the Hurunui pub,what do ya reckon?

Aaron has your cell so I guess we will be in touch

The t-storm outlook differs in the high risk of severe storms to the severe storm watch.
The outlook has it covering Hamilton while the watch has it further south.

I tend to agree, storm's occurring in overcast conditions arnt visually appealing.

Some weak CG strikes being picked up just NW of Whanganui. Starting fairly early.....

Tornado Tim wrote:Some weak CG strikes being picked up just NW of Whanganui. Starting fairly early.....

The storm must be elevated. Quite an area of mid level cloud coming onto the North Island now.

NZstorm wrote:

Tornado Tim wrote:Some weak CG strikes being picked up just NW of Whanganui. Starting fairly early.....

The storm must be elevated.

I was thinking the same thing, the echo's coming back on the NP Radar looked a bit weak for a SFC based storm.

PS: Hint hint whats in NZAPStrike.net

Thanks for that Tim.

Surfaced based instability is not going to be that great today with all the cloud cover.

Looking good Tim.

Starting to brighten slightly here. Hopefully we can clear to some blue sky patches.

Low cloud clearing here now but there is plenty of med/high cloud.
Can see a line of towering Cu over West Auckland.photo

03Stormchaser wrote:

Richard wrote:
Should team up Aaron and Steve we could say meet at the Hurunui pub,what do ya reckon?

Aaron has your cell so I guess we will be in touch

No my cellphone was killed dam it all,just post here if you are going to head up,do you have internet access while on the road??

Not really sure if anything is going to develope or not though there some good build ups around the foothills,another hour or so will tell.