General January Weather

[Manukau heads obs]

note that thin patchy high cloud does bounce around/reflect the suns rays nicely

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

33 for ChCh on thursday, I can't see it. 31.7C maybe with some higher temperatures further inland ?

[Richard]

33 for ChCh on thursday, I can't see it. 31.7C maybe with some higher temperatures further inland ?

No i see thats now been changed to a 29 deg high,but even that temp with a wind off cool ocean?.

Very foggy here ATM and 13 deg,no high cloud to cool things a little today so she'll be back in the 30's by late afternoon after yesterday max of 28deg.

[Orion]

Fine drizzle or "falling fog" here at present;
15.5 degrees, 82% humidity.
Visibility about 700m. No wind.

[Gary McConnochie]

33 for ChCh on thursday, I can't see it. 31.7C maybe with some higher temperatures further inland ?

Yes and I see Christchurch 33 but Ashburton with a high of 29. Maybe it should be the other way around. This is for Thursday by the way.

[Manukau heads obs]

I see Jim Salinger has stuck his neck out and made a call for 40C+ for some inland eastern SI areas

[jamie]

I see Jim Salinger has stuck his neck out and made a call for 40C+ for some inland eastern SI areas

Yea not sure I see what he's seeing. 40 would need hot NW

[Michael]

yes in your car it be 40 degrees probably more

[Nev]

Hmm… I think Jim Salinger was simply pointing out that the set-up could be similar to that of Feb 7, 1973 with regard to the east coast of both Islands, so more of possibility rather than a prediction.

[Michael]

Wasnt the 1973 event with a front arriving with a cooler change,wheres this ones more of a stable N/NE flow over dry country.

[Richard]

Yes it was,i remember the day well,i was at school in Rangiora,it was a light NW wind that day and changed SW smack on 3.00pm as we got out

[tich]

Judging by the anticyclonic situation, inland temps look likely to be the highest (say mid-high 30s) rather than the east coast.

[Manukau heads obs]

maybe a moderate Northerly airflow, meaning more time travelling over land, might be what is needed?
(and an airmass originating from the tropics (like from queensland..is this airmass originating from their, or just from around the top of the high to the east?))

I see the front page of the hearald has this article about 40C...but talks about SW winds?

[Nev]

I see the front page of the hearald has this article about 40C...but talks about SW winds?

Yeah, pretty sure that's a typo, i.e. should be warm north-westerlies rather than warm south-westerlies.

Affiliated publications have repeated the same gaffe…

[Razor]

ChCh high revised back to 24. Following the trend of the last few days. Classic example of "nowcasting"

[Andy]

32 here already

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

ChCh high revised back to 24. Following the trend of the last few days. Classic example of "nowcasting"

I have been reluctant to say anything but I feel the need. I would say this is a very poor piece of forecasting from the Metservice. The last 3 days they had forcasted 27 Monday and Yesterday and 29 for today. Then this morning they originally bumped it up to 30 but said 'Fresh Northeast' The temperature was never going to get to 30 with a NE, even struggle for 25. Now tomorrow it may be slightly warmer but the computer generated 2 hourly obs show easterlys averaging around 25-30km/h at present. I don't always read to much into those but based on that 30 is way off the cards. Anyways 23 is the high reached here today. Fine, hazy cloud about at times with fresh NE.

[Nev]

I see Banks Peninsula is currently over 28C with a NE'er (presumably that's lee side in Akaroa).

Also over 29 in Ashburton with a NE'er.

[Richard]

Ive just got back from CHCH where it was a nice pleasant temp,from Waikari till home you could the air con not working as effective,hopping out of the car was like stepping out into an oven,there's just no wind and its close 37deg,is this a taste of what's we are in for Thursday?

[Orion]

Have just returned to Mayfield where it's 30.4 degrees

[melja]

Nearly 40 in Chch I see with a high of 22C
Been a nice few days with no hot temps, the 22-23 range is very nice.

[Manukau heads obs]

sky news said that Jim Salinger said he has revised down his forecast from 40C to the low 30's
(which is what they got in Alexandra today)

[melja]

But its been that for days and days in most inland areas, nothing out of the ordinary and nothing for the media to get all excited over.
Doesn't fill me with great confidence in his or NIWA's climate change guesses with wild media comments like this.
I bet the guys at metservice had some laughts this morning over that tho but then again they have been well of the mark with there chch temps for the last 5 days or so.
Temps only between 18-22 here in rangiora since the 24th.

[snowstormwatcher]

High of 31 degrees here in Fairlie today.

[melja]

Canterbury rain radar playing up I think with it showing heavy rain of the north pegasus bay coast but I guess its picking up some kind of inversion heat thing going on with the low cloud bank that's setup out there.