Possible Storms South Island 3/1/13

[Richard]

Considering there's potential for storms for both the east and West Coast today and that its not associated with the resent wet NW flow,a separate thread is needed.

The signs look promising for my area with a NE wind blowing,if a westerly was to come up the chances of storms would then be zero,fingers crossed.

[Razor]

Already some decent CB's to the south here in ChCh with plenty of solar radiation and a light NE

[NZstorm]

If theres going to be a storm it needs to hurry up and happen as the upper level airmass is progressively warming over the South Island today. I am yet to see a good storm day when the afternoon upper level temperatures are in a warming trend. There looks to be a window over North Otago for some isolated lightning this afternoon but it doesn't look great.

[Storm Struck]

I would have thought convergence would be enough for todays set up, NE onshore winds against the colder southerly change later on.
I am actually surprised to see the NE this morning, i thought the SW would be still blowing especially up here but we have general main ingrediants anyway.

[Richard]

No chance here,bloody NW is blowing now

[Razor]

All looking pretty benign here in ChCh now, and I see Metservice only going for Isolated Showers now too

[Powermad]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH Issued by MetService at 02:33 pm Thursday 03 January 2013

Valid until 08:00 pm Thursday 03 January 2013

This watch affects people in the following weather forecast districts:

Canterbury Plains

North Otago

Dunedin

Onshore winds have triggered showers over the foothills in South Canterbury and North Otago. These are expected to continue and turn thundery from mid to late afternoon until early evening, and may spread into the Dunedin District. Any storms that form in this areas this afternoon have the potential to bring locally heavy rain and large hail with diameter 20mm or more. Large hail can cause significant damage to crops, orchards, vines, glasshouses and vehicles, as well as make driving conditions hazardous. Should severe weather approach or if you feel threatened, take shelter immediately.

[Razor]

There is a slight hint of developments to the west of here. Looks like the action for folk further south today

[Chris Raine]

Lots of Accugen around flattening out at about 20000 feet . Vertical growth would have to punch through this warming layer to get a Cb ,, Virga around yet to see preciptation hit the ground

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I'm in agreement with SteveW. Not enough oooomph today as the upper atmosphere warms.
Some Cu going up but only mediocris.
I noticed that most of the snow has melted off the ranges too on the way home from work this afternoon, that was there this morning.

[Orion]

Some interesting-looking clouds boiling up to the south-east of here, towards the Rangitata River.
20.7 degrees here at present; fresh south-easterly breeze; sunny; other clouds crossing from west.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Looking a little better to the SW here. Wind has picked up a little. Prob relating to that little bit of development on radar.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Another one taken 15mins later. Gusty ENE here now.

[Orion]

Large raindrops falling, off and on, over the last ten minutes here.
Still sunny! the cloud responsible is nearby to the west however.

[Chris Raine]

We have some Cb's around Oamaru and a breezy on shore NE blowing . Some large raindrops perodically hit the ground

[03Stormchaser]

2013-01-03 17.31.19.jpg

Mayfield, things geting nasty!

[Orion]

A distant roll of thunder ( a good thirty seconds after the splurt of static on the radio).
Clouded over here.

[Orion]

Just as soon as things get interesting I have to disconnect the computer!
More lightning-static and thunder.

[Orion]

Yes, that cloud is looking nasty! More frequent lightning-static, big drops of rain, just on the edge of it at the moment I think. Ha! A hailstone or two by the sound of it on the roof. (posting from phone )

[03Stormchaser]

Large funnel celd.oud west of mayfield

[Richard]

Oh good stuff Orion,as i posted earlier a mod to strong NW all day here,so the only build ups i can see from here is around the Kaikoura rangers.

[03Stormchaser]

How do you contact metservice, this maybe come a nando!!

[Hordur]

Thanks, keeping an eye on the "nado"...

[Rogue]

Hope you guys are getting some decent footage!

[Hordur]

There is a fairly sharp upper trough just moving across the east coast of the South Island as this is written. Some storms have been generated in Canterbury, as noted here with medium size hail. There have also been some lighting strikes in the vicinity of Dunedin. Once the trough moves away, which should happen soon, everything will die down.