Thunderstorms South Island 16/1/2013

[Richard]

Things look very good with a high risk south of CHCH,a moderate risk on the West Coast and a low risk up my way.
i'll be working close to CHCH today and will have a good view to the south.

[Razor]

Yeah beat me to it.... I have a strong suspicion the action will be further south of here today, but happy to be wrong. Extensive high cloud cover here in ChCh at present

[Manukau heads obs]

Heating started here in palmerston,,waimete
We heading north today...Chase day!

[Chris Raine]

I will be out and about this arvo watching for developments around Oamaru

[Manukau heads obs]

High cloud moved in now,will slow down heating
We 15 minutes from omaru

[Richard]

Well there's no NW wind here which normally wrecks any chances of storms,so thats hopeful,also MS have warnings out for my area for the next 24 hours,some thunder and lightning will be great but i hardly think we need any more rain with it though,maybe the weather gods could just send a few dry storms instead

[Powermad]

I'll be on the road after 5.

[NZstorm]

To keep the set up in perspective the instability won't be too great as the colder air is late coming in. Should be enough instability for thunder though. Not cold enough for tornadoes in my opinion.

[Manukau heads obs]

Looking at sat image,looks like it will be
The southerly wind change that will b the trigger?
Ie early evening?actualy,looking at surface charts,looks more like
The cbs will spread from inland,and become more intense on the east coast
Due to wind convergence

[NZstorm]

Surface winds at 4pm from GFS

[Manukau heads obs]

Just driven past waimate
Hills inland looking like a good
Trigger already

[Razor]

Still fairly prominent high cloud layers around here. Really struggling to believe the forecast.

[Manukau heads obs]

But its not a heating from sun setup

[Manukau heads obs]

Looking like development inland from timaru starting up
Update:
High cloud thinning out in south canty now

[Razor]

I see there is a moderate risk tomorrow, looks a more likely candidate to me.

Some minor developments here this afternoon just not the right timing or ooopmh for full development it seems- so far anyway!

[Lacertae]

The warning map has changed at 15:45 ...

[mikestormchaser]

nzstorm where is your pick for storms to fire the most please?? and yes when i looked at the chart last night the SW change doesnt get in untill around midnight.

[Razor]

The warning map has changed at 15:45 ...

Looks more in line with whats happening now, suggest its waaaaaay south today

[Manukau heads obs]

Drat

Oh well
Warming up in ashburton
19c
Lots of sun here now

[Storm Struck]

It was always going to be a much later time for when the southerly comes up, to me a moderate risk still exists right up the east coast until midnight and then further after that further north.
The warning maps actually should say evening/night up this way, storms can still keep firing after dark we are in the middle of summer now.
High cloud has cleared away much more now and with that theres more CU development going up, abit stronger over the peninnsula and foothills.
The wait continues as expected
The tracker is starting to pick up some activity over Otago.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Not looking very "Lightningery" here although sort of hazy and there are the odd bits of instability through flat layers.

[Thunder]

Can see Cb tops in behind Timaru in the distance. Came down to Rakaia as a precaution but as Jason says nothing may happen till later.

This is the sky at the moment, there is a convergence line to the left of me but doesn't seem to want to get any higher.

IMG_8032.JPG

Cb tops to the south. Probably behind Timaru at the moment going by radar.

IMG_8037.JPG

[Orion]

Drat

Oh well
Warming up in ashburton
19c
Lots of sun here now

You've been making good time, Brian - I expect we passed each other on the main road as I'm not long back home from Ashburton myself.
21.5 degrees here, sunny, partly cloudy.

[Manukau heads obs]

Through rolleston now
Staying at my cousins place in burwood
Maybe we can all meet up in a pub?

[Razor]

Through rolleston now
Staying at my cousins place in burwood
Maybe we can all meet up in a pub?

Wrong side of town, I'll be at one in Lyttelton shortly. Enjoy your time in Canterbury