Trough Much of NI and Eastern SI, 4th February

[spwill]

The current 12.7C in Alex must feel cool, yes 30mm is a big fall for Alexandra , more rain has fallen in Alex this year than Auckland. Hopefully plenty more rain to come from this system for us as it is looking anticyclonic ahead.

[bmo]

36mm here and wouldn't mind more

[Manukau heads obs]

the next frontal line looks to be getting a bit more organised for rain for northland/auckland
but its moving faster now, so dont think its going to deliver that much rain?
taranaki and king country will do better
the second front/trough does not look all that promising either?

sure glad we got the unexpected (but has happened here before in similar setups) rain early this morning

[Orion]

Sun was out earlier but sky has clouded over again. Occasional spots of rain again.
Moderate to fresh southerly has risen here in the last half-hour.
Temp. 19.2 degrees and falling.

[Richard]

6mm so far here and falling quite heavily,19deg

[NZstorm]

Low drizzly overcast in Grey Lynn with the temperature not rising, stuck on 21C. Dp21C.

[kiwisk8er]

Rain, glorious rain. Showers coming through all morning. Waiting for the next lot to arrive...

[Skywatcher]

Light to moderate rain here for the last 45 minutes...

[Orion]

One of my spies reports heavy rain and low visibility between Rangitata River and Orari.
Light rain here at the moment, getting heavier; moderate southerly breeze;
16.2 degrees, 76% humidity.

[Richard]

Has become rather humid with a bit of sunshine,77% and 21deg and 7mm of rain.

[Tornado Tim]

24-25°C across northern Waikato, DP hovering around 20 to 21°C.
Warm and humid

[spwill]

These very moist systems do tend to have a lot of cloud cover with them, obviously this limits the chance for good heating. 21C dewpoint here,temp 22C, brighter and a little warmer over south and west Ak today with the northeasterly

I see some thundery Cbs have occurred on the front over the sea NW of Taranaki.

[Tornado Tim]

24 to 26°C now according to Weather stations in the North Waikato with Hamilton AWS on 25.4°C.

Hopefully this temp will keep up till the line incoming from the west.....

[David]

These very moist systems do tend to have a lot of cloud cover with them, obviously this limits the chance for good heating. 21C dewpoint here,temp 22C, brighter and a little warmer over south and west Ak today with the northeasterly.

Yes, despite the 20-21C dewpoint today it hasn't felt that uncomfortable (to me anyway), thick cloud kept the temperature under 23C and there is a gusty NE blowing.

[Tornado Tim]

MS T-storm outlook, update:

CHART AMENDED: TO INCREASE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK FROM NORTH TARANAKI AND TAUMARUNUI TO THE AUCKLAND CITY AREA TO MODERATE. TO REDUCE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK TO LOW FOR NORTH CANTERBURY AND THE KAIKOURA COAST.

A front is forecast to cross the South Island today and the North Island tonight or during Tuesday. This front is preceded by a warm, humid northerly flow bringing rain to much of the country, with some heavy falls, as per the latest Severe Weather Warning and Watch. The front is followed by a strong, colder southerly flow.

There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms over Westland, Buller and Nelson through the afternoon, which could locally boost rainfall rates up to 25mm per hour and possibly more about the ranges.

There is now a moderate risk of thunderstorms from mid Canterbury up to Wairarapa this afternoon and evening associated with the strong southerly change as it heads north. Thunderstorms here could bring hail of 5 to 15mm in diameter,locally heavy rain of 10-25mm/hr and strong wind gusts around 100 km/h. Over north Canterbury and the Kaikoura Coast, there is an additional low risk that one or two thunderstorms may become SEVERE producing damaging wind gusts in excess of 110 km/hr, as well as hail of 10 to 20mm in diameter and possibly a small tornado about coastal north Canterbury.

Meanwhile, over the North Island, a trough ahead of the front, together daytime heating and very humid conditions is likely to produce thunderstorms in western areas later this afternoon and early evening extending across to Bay of Plenty tonight. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms over this broad area,as indicated on the chart, with a lower risk extending into the ranges of Gisborne and Hawkes Bay. Thunderstorms here are likely to produce locally heavy rain up to 25mm per hour and strong wind gusts around 100 km/h. There is now a MODERATE risk that one or two thunderstorms could become SEVERE in the west from North Taranaki and Taumarunui to the Auckland city area producing downpours with rates over 25mm per hour, damaging wind gusts in excess of 110 km/h and possibly a small tornado.

Elsewhere, no thunderstorms or significant convection expected.

Temp at Hamilton AWS up to 26°C and 27°C here, these temps look great!

[Skywatcher]

Southerly change has arrived here with some subterranean thunder...

[Razor]

Southerly change has arrived here with some subterranean thunder...

Yes, long wobble here in town but not too severe

[Manukau heads obs]

I see there is a watch out now for this CB line
looking black to my west now
Sun was out briefly before

[snowstormwatcher]

Mod/heavy rain here in Fairlie since around 10am, Don't have my rain gauge set up here but at a guess there's been around 20-30mm. Currently 12 degrees.

[Tornado Tim]

I see there is a watch out now for this CB line

Watch Details are as follows for peoples reference:

This watch affects people in the following weather forecast districts:
Auckland
Waikato
Waitomo
Taumarunui
Taupo
Taranaki

A front preceded by very warm moist unstable air is expected to move onto the west of the North Island later this afternoon. Embedded thunderstorms are likely in the band of heavy rain as it moves through.

This is an alert to the potential that one or two thunderstorms may become SEVERE supporting possible rainfall rates of 20-40mm/hr, damaging wind gusts that may exceed 110km/hr, and the possibility of an isolated tornado, especially in coastal locations.

This band of possible severe weather is expected in coastal areas from Waitomo to north Taranaki from late afternoon and further inland from Auckland to Taumaranui during the evening before weakening and moving further east.

Rainfall of this intensity can cause flash flooding, especially about low-lying areas such as streams, rivers or narrow valleys, and may also lead to slips. Driving conditions will also be hazardous with surface flooding and poor visibility in heavy rain.

Wind gusts of this strength can cause some structural damage, including trees and power lines, and may make driving hazardous. If any tornados occur, they will only affect a very localised area.

Issued by: Paul Mallinson

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

4.5mm here with light rain mainly. 3 day models have been a bit over the show with the track of the rainfall for this one. Not sure we will get the 20mm or so that I thought we would get. Looks like chain showers could develop late tonight lasting through tomorrow morning though. We need whatever we can gather badly!

[Storm Struck]

Yes today was never really going to produce much unless we got that good heating which we didnt as i expected, however there was a long low rumble not long ago here sounded like towards New Brighton but could have been out west even.
Its actually really quite an odd feeling out there, 17C with a cool southerly and 89% humidity.
That band will shift up the south island in the coming hours leighton as the GFS models predict once the southerly gets stronger etc.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Might be running a little behind schedule.

[melja]

While we need the rain I do believe Chch had about normal rain last month and out here in Rangiora I think we had around 60-70mm so while its dry its just normal summer dry and nothing on what the guys in the north are having to put up with.
Good spring growth has now burnt off making it look much worse than normal but I guess the silly ones that try and run a dairy farm on land that sould only ever have sheep on will find it tough.

[David]

Bit of heavy rain here now, rain rate up to 40 mm/hr in brief bursts. Looks a bit patchy on the radar unfortunately!