03Stormchaser wrote:What a joke the The Severe Thunderstorm Outlook was today. Canterbury had a low risk indicated this morning. I was surprised but sometimes I miss something in these very marginal setups. Then about 2pm they upgraded it to a mod risk along the coast from North Otago up to about Rakaia. Now I see last update at 6:22pm they completely removed any risk from Canterbury and across the country leaving the West Coast under a low risk.
I have this feeling that occasionally on public holidays and weekends the Severe Thunderstorm Outlook is produced by Junior forecasters. I think I've mentioned this before and was quickly told that no this wasn't the case but today's forecasts either show this or someone had a complete brain fade!
Would be interesting to know what they were thinking...
I didn't follow the set up today but having had a quick look back there was some moisture along the coast. How far inland did this coastal moisture advect? Looks to have been a short wave coming in later in the day, too late for peaking heating by the looks.
Time of the year is not great.
I'm sure the Met Service would buddy up the juniors with experienced staff.
Yes, it didn't look like a set-up for any possible thunderstorms but if the risk element is there,it's better to put out a warning just incase something may happen, just to cover their 'donkeys'
NZstorm wrote:
I didn't follow the set up today but having had a quick look back there was some moisture along the coast. How far inland did this coastal moisture advect? Looks to have been a short wave coming in later in the day, too late for peaking heating by the looks.
Time of the year is not great.
There was thick fog around Halswell this morning but apparently nothing out here at West Melton according to my wife.
Well actually i noticed the forecast for potential thunderstorms as i left Oamaru this morning thought not much happening here but as I headed south of Dunedin and there to the south I could see Cb's advancing .At Dacre a southwesterly kicked in with heavy rain , hail and squalls .
I find it hard to see what they saw before the 2pm update that pushed it up to a mod outlook. It was a nice blue dome day so satellite wouldn't show any thing brewing, light SW and Temp was increasing but dp was dropping. I just couldnt find any thing to support this, talked to Aaron and he was as surprised as me.
Any way nice few days ahead by the looks of it to end this week.
EDIT: Dacre is miles outside the Nth Otago and Canterbury outlook they had. Mind you they must have thought this would spread up the coast. I had this as moving out to sea about Dunedin.
Was in the St James MTBing yesterday and it was NW all day and was coming right out as far as sefton/ashely both driving up and coming home so little chance of thunder with that.
Nights certainly look warm for the next 3 or 4 days with a quite humid air mass across northern and western parts of NZ, current Auckland dewpoint is 16C.
NZstorm wrote:
I'm curious as to how the April numbers for Auckland compare with December numbers. Could the April mean temp end up higher than December?
We had a pretty warm December though! Not sure of the official means, but here the April mean temp (the min+max mean) is 1.7C lower than last December
This is interesting:
Shows how much March was an extension of summer!
This month according to my station its 1.2°C dep from normal. (ignore Jan 2009 that was only less than a half month of data)
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Very, very long way off and probably not accurate at all, but the long range forecast maps on weather watch (powered by weathermap.co.nz) are showing an interesting setup on the 8th, 9th, 10th or May. Large high over aussie and the tasman, and a low to the east of us with southerlies over the whole country. Going to be cold
Live updates from Northern Christchurch!
Weather enthusiast turned analyst since 1996, now running CWU on Facebook!
joliver657 wrote:Very, very long way off and probably not accurate at all, but the long range forecast maps on weather watch (powered by weathermap.co.nz) are showing an interesting setup on the 8th, 9th, 10th or May. Large high over aussie and the tasman, and a low to the east of us with southerlies over the whole country. Going to be cold
Looks like it will be sooner than that with GFS hinting for last few runs at some cold air sometime mid to late next week. Will have to see how it pans out but certainly some signs there - not much moisture at this stage but GFS going for 522-524 thickness at present. Anyways not really prepared to speculate about that just yet.
Another nice mild day, 20 the high today and should be warm again tomorrow.
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
A great arch of clear sky below the cloud to the North-west;
NW has risen to a High Wind (I had difficulty keeping car-door from slamming);
19.7 degrees at the moment.
Lovely day with a light northerly and some patchy high cloud. NW a little gustier over the last hour and reached 25 today. Very warm for this time of year.
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
