Subtropical Low - 15th-17th April

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 14/04/2013 16:34

The latest Metservice severe weather outlook is showing a moderate confidence of heavy rain / gales over north/west NI on Tuesday

wembley · Unread post by **wembley** » Sun 14/04/2013 17:54

How much rain will Central Otago get?

CHCH Weather Chaser · Sun 14/04/2013 17:57

wembley wrote:How much rain will Central Otago get?

From this system coming, very little if anything. Any rain that does fall looks like it will be light and scattered.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sun 14/04/2013 20:10

Looks like some heavy falls currently falling up the top of the NI. The radar is showing blue right at the far reaches of its beam.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 14/04/2013 21:44

great looking sky today, mamatus showing in the high cloud at times
was like looking at the sky from an approaching TC

wembley · Unread post by **wembley** » Sun 14/04/2013 21:54

Looks like I'll miss out on all the fun as it were.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sun 14/04/2013 21:57

Manukau heads obs wrote:great looking sky today, mamatus showing in the high cloud at times
was like looking at the sky from an approaching TC

Yea that's true. Looked like that here too.

That radar keeps getting better. Looks like a broad area of rain.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 14/04/2013 22:11

CHCH Weather Chaser wrote: Any rain that does fall looks like it will be light and scattered.

As long as it is wet

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 14/04/2013 22:21

Interesting that the dates labelled on this thread when it was started a week ago are still the expected dates for this low pressure system... not often you see that happen

littleheaven · Unread post by **littleheaven** » Sun 14/04/2013 23:27

Torrential rain in Glenfield, North Shore, at the moment. Can't remember the last time I heard rain this heavy.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 15/04/2013 06:33

looks like the low has peaked for intensity already?

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 15/04/2013 06:38

Looks like patchy rain today for Auckland.

The very strong moist NE flow will give some good orographic rain to eastern high ground particularly western BOP.

Possible heavy shower/thunderstorm over Auckland tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon from a trough line.

The heaviest precip with this system looks to stay west of the North Island ( a baroclinic zone by the looks) and this moves across the South Island tomorrow.

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 15/04/2013 07:54

Still looking like around 25mm hopefully... not enough but would be the biggest fall here this year

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Mon 15/04/2013 09:07

Two directions of movement in the rain band being seen on radar. Main rain band heading SE while there are heavy showers on the leading edge moving SE but sliding SW as a train at the same time.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 15/04/2013 17:40

Light spotty rain in Auckland today but a couple of heavier showers this morning.

Tomorrow should be a warm day in the north with a definite thunder chance in my opinion. There will be lift there tomorrow with the upper trough moving in and the subtropical jet just to our north. Just comes down to whether we can get the instability. Latest run of the gfs is supportive of some pm instability.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Mon 15/04/2013 18:02

The models really have been very up and down with this low, now the south island is back to getting bugger all.
At the end of the day i know its only model runs, so in the next few days we will know for sure.
The second lot to hit us on Friday/Saturday looks nasty and could be some big southerly gales on the east coast of both islands.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 15/04/2013 18:03

finally getting proper rain here now

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 15/04/2013 18:18

Radar looks a bit depressing... most of the rain off the west coast!

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 15/04/2013 20:06

Storm Struck wrote:The models really have been very up and down with this low, now the south island is back to getting bugger all.
At the end of the day i know its only model runs, so in the next few days we will know for sure.
The second lot to hit us on Friday/Saturday looks nasty and could be some big southerly gales on the east coast of both islands.

Not what I was planning for my twin lads 5th birthday party thanks...

snowstormwatcher · Unread post by **snowstormwatcher** » Mon 15/04/2013 20:19

I see Metservice are saying rain with heavy falls tomorrow for Nelson yet their rainfall graph doesn't support this. My pick is around 40-50mm for the city with 60-70mm in my location closer to the hills.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 15/04/2013 20:27

Model sounding for Auckland tomorrow.

Possibly too warm to get enough instability.

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 15/04/2013 20:28

Metservice page for Kerikeri is showing 100mm for there today. Lucky them

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Mon 15/04/2013 20:41

Boy, the wind has suddenly stepped up a gear here.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 15/04/2013 21:17

Nice Cs today with halo. I thought someone may of had a piccy?

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Mon 15/04/2013 21:27

some good development of the rain band occurring at the moment. This is easily seen on the satellite loop and the radar. Some places should get some decent falls tonight.

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