Subtropical Low - 15th-17th April

[CWUweather]

We are still a few days out but having watched each update via the models for this I am not seeing this as a significant rain event for the eastern South Island. Obviously this can change but the track seems to have it moving away quickly to the east on the back end with the southerly change. I think Buller, Nelson and perhaps the lower North Island at this stage look like best bets going by most runs but we need to wait longer for consistancy in the models and greater confidence.

I agree. Lately the models have been showing it as more of a north island'upper south island event. so we willhave to wait and see as you say

[Storm Struck]

The latest does have it pushing east fairly quickly so maybe just one belt of rain from the north as the arm sweeps down on Tuesday and a clearing scene on Wednesday with occasional showers.
The next developing low after this one could be one to watch but thats ever further out.

[CWUweather]

The latest does have it pushing east fairly quickly so maybe just one belt of rain from the north as the arm sweeps down on Tuesday and a clearing scene on Wednesday with occasional showers.
The next developing low after this one could be one to watch but thats ever further out.

Looking at the long range forecast maps it is very obvious that our weather pattern is rapidly changing. Bring on winter. Thats all i can say

[CWUweather]

Models have swung it back south again now on tuesday! who knows

[CWUweather]

GFS certainly changing its mind. putting further south. We just to need to wait until friday for saturday night to be 100% sure

[CWUweather]

Weatherwatch maps have it further south too. starting to sort its self out again

[williams16]

I think we will get a clear picture of whats happening late in the weekend, but where ever it ends up somewhere will get some much needed rain.

[Michael]

ECWMF has it with another low and west or NW flow following or UK met the uglier (and earlier prediction) SW flow behind,you know what I prefer...

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

ECWMF has it with another low and west or NW flow following or UK met the uglier (and earlier prediction) SW flow behind,you know what I prefer...

Yes. Jim Hickey mentioned something about the low from the NW tonight on his weather broadcast on TV One.
The SW flow could be ugly for Auckland, especially around Michael's area.?

[CWUweather]

This is midnight Sunday 14th, Metservice 3 day rain forecast map! They are going to town

[David]

GFS has been saying 20-30mm for us, certainly won't end the drought but it would be a good start

[CWUweather]

Looking at the latest models, definitely going for a lower north island, upper and western south island event

[CWUweather]

And Noon tuesday Metservice 5day map

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

...not all that deep or a bomb tho' ?

[CWUweather]

...not all that deep or a bomb tho' ?

It is the first big rain event in months though

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

...not all that deep or a bomb tho' ?

It is the first big rain event in months though

Could be the drawing in of cold weather from the south could be a feature of this low as well

[CWUweather]

The band of showers moving up form the south is forecast to just kinda hold there and bring in the cold air. its not moving northwards at all

[Storm Struck]

Hes talking about once the low has shifted east into the Pacific, it will disrupt the dominance of the highs and draw very cold air up for around the 20-22nd April a real good wintry blast or two with juicy thunder and hail in toe .
I would say this low coming isnt really any different to the one that got us i think was it last month? just that this one is more widespread and getting the bulk of the rain to north island areas that need it.
Even though alot of areas will get some needed rain im not sure the duration will exceed warning criteria in most areas, if it was more slow moving this low we would be looking at some juicier totals.
This low is just really on a trip to the Chatam Islands to chill for abit from being up near QLD.

[CWUweather]

Hes talking about once the low has shifted east into the Pacific, it will disrupt the dominance of the highs and draw very cold air up for around the 20-22nd April a real good wintry blast or two with juicy thunder and hail in toe .
I would say this low coming isnt really any different to the one that got us i think was it last month? just that this one is more widespread and getting the bulk of the rain to north island areas that need it.
Even though alot of areas will get some needed rain im not sure the duration will exceed warning criteria in most areas, if it was more slow moving this low we would be looking at some juicier totals.
This low is just really on a trip to the Chatam Islands to chill for abit from being up near QLD.

Well i like the sound of that. A wintry blast or 2 haha

[melja]

Man now were talking the 20-22nd for weather events, that's a long way off

[CWUweather]

Metservice going to town for CHCH on 16th, 17th, 20th and 21st. Bloody hell

7567-13dfb8aa400-13e05d75c00-13dfc1d406a.0.png

[Storm Struck]

The latest in the models has brought those rain totals back up again, so it looks as though there will be some heavy rain from Tuesday evening now.
We can start to be fairly reliant on the models from now being only a few days out.

[spike_01]

Rain in Welly right now.. Looks like we will be in the centre of this system coming next week..

[Richard]

A quote from the MS website,rain developing for Waipara with a zero chance of 1mm,

Tuesday 16

Rain developing, northeasterlies turning southeast.
Issued: 1:47pm 13 Apr
17°CDaily max9°CMorning min
0%Rain 1+ mm 0%Rain 10+ mm

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Latest run has the bulk of the rain further north again with nothing much to talk about for us here again. Getting close now so need the next run to move it back a bit further south.