Subtropical Low - 15th-17th April

CWUweather · Unread post by **CWUweather** » Sun 07/04/2013 13:18

GFS giving this a good chance of a good drenching. Long way off i know but still looking likely. Thought it needed a new thread as its the biggest low have seen heading our way in a long while!

Manukau heads obs · Sun 07/04/2013 13:35

and ECMWF is playing along too, and so is BOM ..so models in agreement..for a change...

CWUweather · Unread post by **CWUweather** » Sun 07/04/2013 15:22

Definitely looking like the first prolonged period of rain for the north of the country in atleast 3-4 months.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 07/04/2013 15:31

I have been cautious to say anything for fear of it disappearing from the models in a few days! Would be nice to get at least 50mm this month for a change

CWUweather · Unread post by **CWUweather** » Sun 07/04/2013 15:32

David wrote:I have been cautious to say anything for fear of it disappearing from the models in a few days! Would be nice to get at least 50mm this month for a change

With most models in agreement and been saying the same for a week atleast i would imagine that it wont disappear haha. I would also think that more than 50mm is on the cards

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sun 07/04/2013 17:56

Well here's hoping the models don't change a not in the coming days.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sun 07/04/2013 18:02

Thats a fair way out to start a topic for it but lets hope it does follow through, as i mentioned earlier it presents a snow risk for some places in the south of the south island possibly even Canterbury.
But not to really low levels just around 400m and above i would say, well its safer to say that being this far out and the fact its still only the second month of autumn.
The combination of an incoming frontal system from the south Tasman and this low could prove interesting, but for now its armchair weather model observing.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sun 07/04/2013 18:20

Yes looong way out and could easily change. BUT it is great to have something to look forward to. It's been about 5 months since we had a decent low.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 07/04/2013 20:47

Have to see what happens?

CWUweather · Unread post by **CWUweather** » Sun 07/04/2013 21:23

Storm Struck wrote:Thats a fair way out to start a topic for it but lets hope it does follow through, as i mentioned earlier it presents a snow risk for some places in the south of the south island possibly even Canterbury.
But not to really low levels just around 400m and above i would say, well its safer to say that being this far out and the fact its still only the second month of autumn.
The combination of an incoming frontal system from the south Tasman and this low could prove interesting, but for now its armchair weather model observing.

What do you reckon, if all goes well, the chances of snow are at Mt cook village? Going there for school on sunday, monday and tuesday

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 07/04/2013 22:35

Looks ominous. A few thunderstorms around. A very La Nina feature, perhaps?

CWUweather · Unread post by **CWUweather** » Sun 07/04/2013 22:43

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Looks ominous. A few thunderstorms around. A very La Nina feature, perhaps?

Yeh hopefully, The village is about 750m above sea level... so cross fingers for me haha $\:D/$

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 08/04/2013 06:54

This type of set up would be good for snow in the Mackenzie in June.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 08/04/2013 07:53

Jim Salinger putting his neck out as well
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/8521526 ... he-horizon

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 08/04/2013 09:27

Next week is still a long way out in the modelling, see how it all looks mid week.

jamesrobert · Unread post by **jamesrobert** » Mon 08/04/2013 09:44

We all know how good Jim Salinger's predictions are.....

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Mon 08/04/2013 13:11

Weather watch don't have any confidence of it pulling off it seems with no mention of it at all, they normally like to say we predicted it first

CWUweather · Unread post by **CWUweather** » Mon 08/04/2013 14:59

melja wrote:Weather watch don't have any confidence of it pulling off it seems with no mention of it at all, they normally like to say we predicted it first

Just as you say that.... check their facebook page

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Mon 08/04/2013 16:10

If I were weatherwatch I wouldn't even have posted it......
Posting a long range forecast run makes it look like an amateur outfit.

"Supposed" forecasting companies need to tread very carefully before posting these things, imagine if all the forecasted rain evaporates in the next few runs. Just because its been consistent in few extended runs does not mean by any measure that it will happen.
Why couldn't they wait a few more days when it becomes more 'certain'? Is the whole point of these articles is just to prove they were the first outfit to forecast it?

Manukau heads obs · Mon 08/04/2013 16:25

they did talk up a big low from the tropics for around the march 28th well before that date
which evaoprated
luckily though there was showers on the last few days of the month with a break down in the blocking high pressure...so there was pattern change at least
for this current system, its looking like the ducks are lining up...there is new MJO expected that will be the trigger for it, etc

CWUweather · Unread post by **CWUweather** » Mon 08/04/2013 16:58

Looking fruitful http://weathermap.co.nz/forecast-maps

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 08/04/2013 17:58

Latest run of the GFS has it a South Island West Coast event.

Just a little bit of rain for the rest of us.

CWUweather · Unread post by **CWUweather** » Mon 08/04/2013 18:09

NZstorm wrote:Latest run of the GFS as it a South Island West Coast event.

Just a little bit of rain for the rest of us.

I'm happy with that.... Heading to Mt Cook Village on Sunday for school. No work for me!

Also, the latest GFS runs only goes as far out as Sunday... will move further East on Monday i would imagine

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 08/04/2013 18:17

the latest GFS runs only goes as far out as Sunday... will move further west on Monday i would imagine

GFS is a 15 day model(384hrs) but some of the providers such as Wyoming only have 7 days.(192hrs)

I would keep an eye on the European for actual timing.

CWUweather · Unread post by **CWUweather** » Mon 08/04/2013 18:25

NZstorm wrote:
the latest GFS runs only goes as far out as Sunday... will move further west on Monday i would imagine
GFS is a 15 day model(384hrs) but some of the providers such as Wyoming only have 7 days.(192hrs)

I would keep an eye on the European for actual timing.

Could you please link the 384 hour maps?

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