Complex Low - Apr 20th-21st

[Richard]

For the second day now the MetService have a moderate risk of heavy rain for inland Canterbury and Marlborough

MetService - Severe Weather Outlook

Issued: 2:03pm Wednesday 17 Apr 2013
Valid from Friday 19 April 2013 to Monday 22 April 2013

A complex low is expected to develop over the Tasman Sea, moving towards New Zealand on Friday to lie west of the country during the weekend, with a strong, moist easterly flow spreading over central and southern New Zealand.

Rain is likely in many areas from Friday through the weekend. The most significant accumulations are forecast in Marlborough and about the Canterbury foothills, where there is a moderate confidence of rainfall amounts reaching warning criteria on Saturday and Sunday. There is a low confidence of heavy rain in North Taranaki on Friday and early Saturday. In Bay of Plenty, there is low confidence of significant heavy rain late Friday till early Saturday, and again from late Sunday till Monday. Additionally, in the east from Wairarapa to the Canterbury Plains and also Wellington, Nelson, northern Buller there is a low confidence of rain meeting warning criteria on Saturday and Sunday.

Finally, easterlies may reach severe gale in parts of Nelson, Buller and northern Westland later on Friday and Saturday.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes, Richard, looks like a substantial rainfall for Canterbury over the WE, the most substantial for a while.
Don't know the totals but could be 50mm for some places.

[Richard]

I reckon too John,it looks like it could one of those types of onshore rain bearing systems that damp big time when they hit hill ranges

[Tornado Tim]

GFS is pulling some serious CAPE numbers for Northern to central North Island on the 21st.
Up to 1550j/kg! Thats big CAPE for NZ.
Higher numbers are reached on sea due to to warm sea SFC temps.

Will have see how it firms up a bit more but sure looks promising

[Richard]

I see the warnings for the east South Island and the strong winds for the other side have now been removed from the forecast but hopefully some good rain periods still,did have a descent 10 min shower about 5.00,certainly some very threatening looking cloud about from about mid afternoon onwards.

[Storm Struck]

I think you will find Richard thats because we are now in the warning time within the next few days, so its not classed on the severe outlook.
Cloudy all day here only just set in with light drizzle stuff before and now a brief steady shower has just passed over, pretty cool having them form on the coast that quick.
The next 3 days will be rather wet to say the least.

[CWUweather]

Severe weather watch now in palce for canterbury

[CWUweather]

Not much happening down here yet. Might stay up and watch it unfold. Could get interesting in a couple of hours!

[Razor]

Would rather have a half decent day til after 3pm for my twin lads 5th birthday party please jOliver not everyone is obsessed with rain

[CWUweather]

Would rather have a half decent day til after 3pm for my twin lads 5th birthday party please jOliver not everyone is obsessed with rain

Did i say i was obsessed with rain? I AM ALLOWED MY OPINION

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Chch will miss lots of rain. Radar evident due to se flow

[CWUweather]

Chch will miss lots of rain. Radar evident due to se flow

Not really. the forecast for later on looks formidable

[Richard]

Been some heavy showers during the night, 18mm so far.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

The flow has turned more easterly which is allowed good moisture into the city now

[snowstormwatcher]

3mm overnight here in Nelson, Light rain currently.

[Skywatcher]

Heavy rain peaking at 32mm/h woke me just after 5. 13.8mm recorded here since 4am.

[Richard]

The flow has turned more easterly which is allowed good moisture into the city now

Yes ,and how BP is sheltering Birdlings flat area too,just a steady mod rain here ATM

[Orion]

So far, 15mm rain here.
8.8 degrees with a fresh south-easterly.

[Richard]

So far, 15mm rain here.
8.8 degrees with a fresh south-easterly.

Not a breath of wind here

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Not a breath here Richard either. 14mm here, didnt start raining till 4am roughly. Rain has eased over the last hour. Only very lightly raining now. Radar not as impressive - the band is losing its oompth as its comes towards the city from the sea.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Rain has stopped and radar showing clearance. Breeze has developed now.

[Storm Struck]

It fair bucketed down around 2am just from a narrow shower band heading inland from the coast, then again between 5-6am seems to be quite intense on the coast and when it hits the foothills.
Just steady to occasional heavy rain since but the easterly has picked up abit, easily topping 29mm so far here.
Its the heaviest ive heard on the roof in a long time and if it had kept up there would have been flooding.
The easterly flow is evident with the peninnsula sheltering a narrow band to the south on the radars.

[melja]

Down in twizel this weekend and there is bugger all to report from here with just spits of rain and no wind and a cool 8deg.
Not coming past the coastal foothills at all.

[spwill]

Mt Hutt catching some snow http://www.nzski.com/mountain.jsp?site=mthutt still a bit early to be of use for the upcoming ski season

Oamaru currently on 8.5C

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Still sitting on 14mm in which all fell in 4 hours between 4am-8am. BP certainly sheltering the city. Might be dry with the odd drizzle patch/spot of rain at the rugby tonight.