Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 22nd
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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Re: Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 21st
I think the main rain band may take a lot longer to come ashore than anticipated.
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Re: Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 21st
The second storm of today, heading away to the Southeast about 5pm
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Re: Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 21st
weak T storm just passed west of Tauranga looks like that could be it now for a while ,moons out !
ttttttttttt
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Re: Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 21st
The line in the west is looking weaker now.
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Re: Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 21st
It's teasing us. Bound to cross us at some point, don't think I will sit up waiting tho. Will probably be best show for years and I will sleep through it.
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Re: Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 22nd
I recon that lightening active cell to the NW has us in our sights. Easy on the radar refresh button, the extra power output seems to kill them..
Re: Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 22nd
Just heard very loud rumble, hopefully the first of a few to come
- NZstorm
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Re: Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 22nd
My thinking today is 500j/kg to 800j/kg for Auckland Waikato. That's still very good instability.Just spoke to the metservice guys the Whenuapai sounding indicated around 2300 j/kg of CAPE @ 00z.
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Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 22nd
Long story short it stands for convective available potential energy and is what fuels thunderstorms. NZ usually have a few hundred. In the tropics and thundery places it is in the thousands like today was here.seej wrote:Sorry guys for my ignorance, but what is CAPE?
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Re: Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 22nd
For CAPE of 2300j/kg you need to go to Darwin or USA. The tornado alley loaded gun soundings are a classic for the big CAPE numbers.
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Re: Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 22nd
It was confirmed that today's whenuapai sounding @ 00z was at least 1700 j/kg (SFC based).NZstorm wrote:For CAPE of 2300j/kg you need to go to Darwin or USA. The tornado alley loaded gun soundings are a classic for the big CAPE numbers.
MU CAPE was still a significant 900j/kg.
I wasnt so sure about the metservice figure, hence why I did a double check.
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
- NZstorm
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Re: Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 22nd
The sounding packages at both Wyoming and Plymouth State Universities use mixed layer CAPE. Mixed layer CAPE accounts for mixing and takes the mean dp in the lowest 100mb.
Wyoming has the NZWP 00Z CAPE at 633j/kg.
Wyoming has the NZWP 00Z CAPE at 633j/kg.
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Re: Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 22nd
just add that CAPE is just a theoretical number and highly fluid. I tend to use the mixed layer numbers as this is commonly used in USA storm chasing. Although the RUC model does use best CAPE.
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Re: Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 22nd
Yes Mixed Layer CAPE is best, but forecasting systems such as the GFS only output a SFC based value.
So in terms of a GFS confirmation you match types with types otherwise its unfair.
But even so 1700j/kg SFC based is very impressive for NZ
So in terms of a GFS confirmation you match types with types otherwise its unfair.
But even so 1700j/kg SFC based is very impressive for NZ
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
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Re: Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 21st
Peopled_Diagram wrote:I did look out for you Brian!
But OMG you chose to go shopping instead of chasing!!! Oh for shame (wink).
I like that
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
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Re: Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 22nd
Well get all ours tomorrow with the westerly change.
Re: Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 22nd
Very nice lightning display in the distance, takes 40-50 seconds for the sound to get to us
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Re: Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 22nd
Thunder heard here now. This lightning tracker seems to be picking a few things up in north Auckland http://nzapstrike.net/live.php
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Re: Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 22nd
yup, good ligthning and thunder and heavy rain here...woke me up....
21mm here so far for the day
21mm here so far for the day
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Re: Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 22nd
Hope we get some good heavy rain to cool things down... muggy as tonight 18C dewpoint!
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Re: Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 22nd
Lightning has unfortunately stopped for now. Moderate rain here now. No wind. Warm with lots of mozzies!
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Re: Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 22nd
No sooner than I posted that, rain has become torrential.
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Re: Thunderstorms Upper North Island - April 19th - 22nd
Intracloud lightning above us. Obscured by rain.