Thunderstorms western North Island 24 April

[NZstorm]

Looks like good moisture tomorrow (Wednesday) with surface dps 16C indicated for the west of the North Island. An upper trough is forecast to bring some rain with a thunder risk into the west of the North Island Wednesday afternoon (including Auckland). The set up is not huge like Sunday but given the good moisture and deep layer lapse rates 6.2C, thunderstorms definitely possible. Isolated squalls 50knots.

Looks to be another trough line crossing overnight Wednesday but more likely to affect Taranaki southward.

[Manukau heads obs]

M/S agrees, small tornadoes penciled in again for the likely places

[NZstorm]

Not looking great on sat pic this morning. You can see the shortwave just out to the NW of us on the sat pic. We will certainly get some heavy showers but my thunder expectations have dropped a bit.

There is some glaciated shower cloud around Auckland this morning.

M/S agrees, small tornadoes penciled in again for the likely places

You can measure the tornado risk directly by looking at the shear. The shear today is not great but I guess you can say there is a very low chance of a tornado. The moist air is certainly good for tornadoes.

[Manukau heads obs]

yeah, the CB's coming through here are just your garden variety

[Nev]

This morn's update now also includes all of Northland (tornado risk mainly S of Akld)...

MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Wednesday 24 Apr 2013
Issued at: 8:30am Wednesday 24 Apr 2013

A front and small low moving out of the north Tasman Sea are expected to move onto the northern and central North Island this evening. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms associated with this front from Northland to northern Taranaki from late afternoon or evening, and about eastern Bay of Plenty tonight. These thunderstorms are expected to produce localised heavy rain in the 10-25mm/hr range, squally winds and small hail. There is also a risk of a small tornado, mainly near the west coast south of Auckland.

In the South Island, a seperate front moving across the Tasman Sea should move onto the west coast tonight. There is a moderate to high risk of thunderstorms associated with this front, bringing localised heavy rain, small hail, and possibly one or two small tornadoes.

No other thunderstorms or severe convection expected over New Zealand today.

MetService TS Outlook - Is. Apr 24, 0830am.png

[Manukau heads obs]

The arrow points at my place,LOL
Typically I am away next few days....

Next line of showrs lookd good

[NZstorm]

Some of the showers this morning are drenching.

[David]

Some of the showers this morning are drenching.

We got 3mm here from the last one, but most of the 'meaty' ones are sliding through south Auckland - the airport has already had about 10mm rain today

[David]

(11.10) Muggy with a dewpoint of 17-18C here, that should help convection I hope?
Edit - big temperature drop of 4.5°C just after I posted that

[David]

Some lightning showing up in the next area of rain to move in later. Wasn't expecting it to be so wet today - up to 16mm here since midnight.

[NZstorm]

Yes a rainy day for Auckland, no sunshine and staying a bit on the cool side.

[NZstorm]

Some lightning showing up in the next area of rain to move in later. Wasn't expecting it to be so wet today - up to 16mm here since midnight.

The thunderstorm out there showing some organisation on radar. Looks on target for Brian's place.

[David]

The thunderstorm out there showing some organisation on radar. Looks on target for Brian's place.

Nooo! He won't even by there to see it... we need one to cross central/eastern Auckland instead

[seej]

Yes been watching a few flashes out the window to the w/sw, nice booming thunder heard.

[Brassnz]

I'd say a direct hit on Laingholm. Several very bright flashes (and massive booms). The last one nearly made me find Jesus.

[NZstorm]

I can see the lightning from Grey Lynn. Raining here.

[bmo]

Yes nice thunder, can hear it over here

[seej]

Seems like a lot of the lightning is obscured by rain. May be more to this storm than we think...looks to be severe thunderstorms off the coast now too. Hate to be on a boat out there...

[NZstorm]

Can hear distant thunder from here too.

[David]

Hope some makes it across here, apart from one rumble heard on Saturday haven't heard decent thunder in ages

[seej]

One big intracloud bolt over the entire Waitakere ranges and over to Green Bay way. Nice crackle with it!

[David]

Hearing the odd very distant rumble now

[NZstorm]

Just saw a nice IC streak across the sky to south.

[Brassnz]

Absolutely massive series of IC and CG to the east of here, over what was probably 3-4 seconds without ceasing. Sensational show!!

[Michael]

Just saw large flash to W