Cold southerly low level snow 27-28th May

[Talbotm]

Looks promising at 850mb. Will have to wait for GFS runs closer to monday.

[snowstormwatcher]

Looks like a Southland/otago event, maybe coastal Canterbury north of Rakaia. Wont be much if anything down this way.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Found this on the press website. Tony forecasting the air to be cold enough for sea level snow. Obviously moisture an issue with the wind direction. Slight tilt though and could be a different story.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/y ... -next-week

[Talbotm]

Lets hope we get a SSW flow at the very least. ideal would be SSE but i dont like the chances of the latter. Time will tell.

[TonyT]

It wouldnt surprise me to see a small trough form in the coldest air tucked in behind the front. Worth keeping an eye on.

[NZstorm]

Just glancing the gfs this morning,

Still looking like snow to sea level for the South Island and to 200m over the lower half of the North Island.
I would take the 'maybe' off the thread title!

The west of the North Island could be hit by squally thunderstorms/hail.

[spwill]

I have been waiting for the very cold air to drop out of the modelling, no still there

In a real contrast a brief spell of tropical air catches the top of NZ Sat night( dewpoint 18C) before very cold air moves over the North Island Tuesday .

[melja]

W/W on the radio this morning making some bold calls about snow, looks cold but bugger all moisture and the wind direction will mean even less.

[Richard]

Tony may well be right about a small low developing,GFS has one over Canterbury coast Monday 26th though

[Talbotm]

Lets hope tony is right as we need some moisture for this system as that will make a big difference as to whether we see snow or not also a slight wind change will help.

[Razor]

Metservice seems to have bailed out on this event for Canterbury with only a few showers forecast Monday and fine weather Tuesday

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Metservice seems to have bailed out on this event for Canterbury with only a few showers forecast Monday and fine weather Tuesday

They havent updated yet today. That was yesterday for Monday and Tuesdays was computer generated and not modified. It just comes over into the 5 day forecast just after midnight. Tuesday will change when they do their updates around 11am.

[cantygal]

Bang on Leighton.
Models look to have cold and sleet/ snow Tuesday morning in my book Meija for Canterbury. I heard that item on the radio but tend to agree with them.

[Dean.]

Looks very coastal for Canterbury!

[Razor]

Roger that. Its changed all right

[Bradley]

Metservice still going for 9C max for Christchurch for next Tuesday on their latest forecast, how is that possible with -6C at 850hpa over the top of us all day?? That would normally translate into a maximum temp of around 4-5C at sea level!

[spwill]

Given the strong upper level system I'm expecting to see snow to sea level for parts of the south later Monday

[seej]

Where is this cold air originating? The isobars look to reach right down to Antarctica!

[melja]

Yeah sure there is lots of talk of cold but snow needs moisture and deep cloud bases not the type of clouds we get in chch on a SW which tend to be the cold dry thin type.
There may be a flurry or two but doubt it very much that any will settle.

[spwill]

Yes, a southwesterly tends to put most of action southwest of Dunedin City.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Yes moisture has always been the issue with this one for Canterbury. If we get chain showers they can often pack a punch with the very cold air so I think its a matter of whether the chain showers develop or not as to we will see anything settle. Its a very coastal event for Canterbury it would seem either way. If you live in Inland Canterbury I wouldnt be surprised if you saw nothing.

[Richard]

. If you live in Inland Canterbury I wouldnt be surprised if you saw nothing.

great thats what i want to hear

[Storm Struck]

Like i say you have to remember deeper shower clouds are likly early next week because of the sea temps and the damp land enhancements, its very flip flop but i dont think precipitation will be a huge issue this time there wont be heaps but what the models show are missing other factors.
I think with this one we will get a clearer idea say come Sunday when the models should perk up abit.

[CWUweather]

Weatherwatch.co.nz going to town for chchon monday and tuesday haha

[NZstorm]

Looking like a heavy snow set up for the central and southern North Island Tuesday. It would be a warm advective snow event if it comes off. Snow to 400m I think.

Snowfall could reach heavy criteria over Southland/Catlins as well. Models showing the airmass just about as cold as it can get for that latitude. 700mb temps -20.