Low looks like bringing wet couple of days from Queens Bday.

CHCH Weather Chaser · Fri 31/05/2013 11:06

Thought I would make a new thread for a system coming in from the Tasman for around the Queens Birthday period. There were hints for this a few days back and the models dismissed this but the last two runs have got this back on track. This morning the GFS put out 40mm for CHCH and now 67mm in the run just through. Perhaps some decent snow for some of the ski-fields. Something to watch closely.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Fri 31/05/2013 11:26

Some of the models plot a deep low crossing the south island on the GFS surface maps, and flicking a very strong Southerly flow along the east coast but the models cant quite agree yet.
Tony has brief snow flurries to 200m on tuesday with wintry showers so it could be something to watch for, and perhaps something that the metrogram you have there hasnt picked up on.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 31/05/2013 15:21

Looks like substantial rain

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Fri 31/05/2013 15:47

600+mm on the coast this weekend too, will be at the batch so look forward to the thunderstorms.

CWUweather · Unread post by **CWUweather** » Fri 31/05/2013 20:54

Looking like the wettest day of the year to dat actually

CHCH Weather Chaser · Sat 01/06/2013 09:16

Im not sure why the Metservice 3 day maps since they are GFS based are not matching the metvuw maps. I know they usually only update the morning and evening run but they have been well off for this upcoming event. Chch this morning still being plotted at over 50mm but the 3 day maps don't show this at all...it shows the band moving through within 12 hours but it meteogram shows lasting much longer than that.

Weather Watcher · Unread post by **Weather Watcher** » Sat 01/06/2013 10:28

The 3 day rainfall maps on metservice.com can either be based on the GFS, UKMO or ECMWF models. The forecasters each day choose which model they feel is doing the best overall.

CHCH Weather Chaser · Sat 01/06/2013 11:06

Weather Watcher wrote:The 3 day rainfall maps on metservice.com can either be based on the GFS, UKMO or ECMWF models. The forecasters each day choose which model they feel is doing the best overall.

Thanks for that! Good to know. Do you think GFS is overplaying this then as the latest run now has 115mm in the run just through!

Weather Watcher · Unread post by **Weather Watcher** » Sat 01/06/2013 11:21

The GFS model is producing much more rain over Canterbury on Monday as it brings the new low out of the north Tasman Sea faster, and holds the southerly back over Canterbury longer setting up a good over-running situation. Both the EC and UKMO models are slower with the low and a little faster with the southerly. This is one to watch. If the GFS is right, we may also be considering a heavy snow situation through North Otago and Canterbury on Monday.

CHCH Weather Chaser · Sat 01/06/2013 14:43

Ok, will be interesting to see what the next GFS run shows then but its had most of its runs over the last 2 days at 50mm+. I take it you guys feel the GFS only has a very slim chance of being correct as there is no mention of the rain (not even low confidence) in your severe weather outlook.

CHCH Weather Chaser · Sat 01/06/2013 21:26

Being less than 48hours out from the event 75mm still being put out by GFS. UKMO showing nothing of the sort. You would of thought the gap would have closed...hope for metservice sake that the UKMO is right as they have not put anything in the severe weather outlook...when one model 48hours out shows 115mm surely you got to play it safe and have low confidence incase GFS did prove right....any thoughts?

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 01/06/2013 21:30

Jet stream/surface pressure pattern on Monday. Subtropical jet coming off Aussie and a polar jet over the South Island with low developing in between.

Avalanche · Unread post by **Avalanche** » Sat 01/06/2013 21:41

NZstorm wrote:Jet stream/surface pressure pattern on Monday. Subtropical jet coming off Aussie and a polar jet over the South Island with low developing in between.

A match made in heaven NZstorm lol. From what some of you experts on here can see due to the warm and cold clash would it create severe thunderstorms as well? Looking like another significant weather event. I hope the metservice get onto it quickly, cold+warm = SNOW!!! I will never forget 2006 that was an unreal weather event.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 01/06/2013 22:12

Ingredients are there for South Island snow, it depends on how it all comes togeather. Also a chance of thunder Tuesday over the upper North Island.

matttbs · Unread post by **matttbs** » Sat 01/06/2013 22:28

Where do you guys find all these graphs/data? (apart from metservice)

trickytiger · Unread post by **trickytiger** » Sat 01/06/2013 22:43

matttbs wrote:Where do you guys find all these graphs/data? (apart from metservice)

The one steve posted is from weatheronline.co.uk, you can find links to metvuw and ecmwf in the links menu at the top of the forum. the GFS graph that is posted here regularly is at: http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php

Avalanche · Unread post by **Avalanche** » Sat 01/06/2013 23:46

Latest GFS has it moving further north over wellington now

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sun 02/06/2013 09:48

Extremely wet here I n Queenstown
some thunder too

Avalanche · Unread post by **Avalanche** » Sun 02/06/2013 10:32

Hopefully its snowing on coronet peak. Is it very cold there in Queenstown?

CHCH Weather Chaser · Sun 02/06/2013 10:45

Avalanche wrote:Hopefully its snowing on coronet peak. Is it very cold there in Queenstown?

The webcam when i looked not long ago had washed away the dusting of snow.

CHCH Weather Chaser · Sun 02/06/2013 10:47

Looks like the GFS was wrong with the run just through showing just over 20mm. One of the biggest flops I can remember with the GFS in terms of its difference 48 hours out (115mm) to 12 hours out (20mm).

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 02/06/2013 11:32

Yes, looks like heavy rain on Coronet Peak is really damaging that snow cover from last week.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sun 02/06/2013 11:41

Avalanche wrote:Hopefully its snowing on coronet peak. Is it very cold there in Queenstown?

No snow, far too warm. Coronet Peak had a dusting yesterday left from last week but has washed away this mornign

Avalanche · Unread post by **Avalanche** » Sun 02/06/2013 11:54

dammm the guys will be gutted. Really mild here in Wellington today just passing cloud and the odd spit. GFS still showing heavy rain for Wellington on Tuesday and cold southerly mix could be interesting. Wondering if it will produce heavy snow at higher elevations.

CWUweather · Unread post by **CWUweather** » Sun 02/06/2013 11:58

CHCH Weather Chaser wrote:Looks like the GFS was wrong with the run just through showing just over 20mm. One of the biggest flops I can remember with the GFS in terms of its difference 48 hours out (115mm) to 12 hours out (20mm).

I think we can be sure we will get more than 20mm haha, see what the next runs says

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Low looks like bringing wet couple of days from Queens Bday.

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