Major Tasman Sea depression & E airflow 15-20th June

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Major Tasman Sea depression & E airflow 15-20th June

Unread post by CWUweather »

Yes I know it's a long way out but this system seems to be being mentioned a lot. I see Tony is saying snow down to 200m in Canterbury early next week.
Still a week out and I know things can change but looking interesting. And Kick off for the test match on Saturday in Christchurch could get interesting!
What are your thoughts?
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

I think it would be wicked to have a test match while its snowing just for viewing purposes! :D Although the trend that is consistent is that it does seem to be more like a mild NW night as this stage with the colder air starting into Sunday. Far too early to really comment on this as we will know. Something to watch. Tony going 20-50mm with snow to 200m and then snow on hills with 10-20mm for the above outlook period. Thickness for Christchurch has dropped down to 525 on the GFS which with the right variables can bring snow to sea level. I would personally like to see that drop closer to 520 however. Moisture and 500 thickness will definitely deviate throughout the working week and it will be a case of waiting for some consistency to develop in the models.
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by CWUweather »

Rugby would be good with snow haha. And yeh hopefully we will start to see some consistency in the models in the next few days
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by spwill »

Watch for model agreement, ECMWF paints a less cold picture with east/northeast flow, high country snow.
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by TonyT »

joliver657 wrote:Yes I know it's a long way out but this system seems to be being mentioned a lot. I see Tony is saying snow down to 200m in Canterbury early next week.
Just repeating what I read on here... :lol: :lol: :crazy:

But seriously, a lot of variables need to come together over the next 5 days before we have a clear idea. Best to get some rough ideas out there now, and get people talking, but dont put too much faith in any of the numbers till we get closer to the event.
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by NZstorm »

The scenario given on the latest GFS is warm advection snow. Hopefully Queenstown can score a good hit from this.
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by Bradley »

The latest model run has the polar outbreak back on the cards, they had it gone there in the latest run!!
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

TonyT wrote: But seriously, a lot of variables need to come together over the next 5 days before we have a clear idea. Best to get some rough ideas out there now, and get people talking, but dont put too much faith in any of the numbers till we get closer to the event.
I agree also adding to Tony's good point....

I don't think threads should be made from forecasts that are more than 3 days ahead of time.
I will now refer to a thread that was made "prematurely", the thread got to 3 pages long even before the forecasted event even happened. That means there was 3 pages full of "speculation" just based on a model output.
During that time the the supposed event could have easily disappeared in the models and then the forum is left with a thread based on a "dud" forecast output.

I support passing comments of a potential event in the future, just not threads based on a forecast output that is far too premature and therefor inherently unreliable.
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by matttbs »

What graph in the links do I need to look at to see the thickness levels? I tried but was unsuccessful.. Knowing my luck it was probably right in front of my face
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

matttbs wrote:What graph in the links do I need to look at to see the thickness levels? I tried but was unsuccessful.. Knowing my luck it was probably right in front of my face
http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php
It will show up by default on the meteogram if you just followed the steps accordingly.

This morning youll notice it doesn't show any polar air and not much in the way of moisture.
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by Bradley »

Models still going for between 20-30mm for inland central Canterbury from late saturday-Sunday, all things going well that could certainly translate into at least 10cm of snowfall above 200-300m asl...
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by CWUweather »

Weatherwatch.co.nz has put there latest forecast video out and they have mentioned the cold snap so looking all the more likely
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by Bradley »

Yep they sure are mentioning it in their forecasts, I think if it's good enough for them to mention it then we should be "allowed" to mention it in a thread here, perhaps if people don't want to comment on a potential weather event more then a few days out then they simply shouldn't go into that relevant thread :)
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by TonyT »

Just because weathertwatch (or any person or organisation) mentions it, doesnt make it any more or less likely to occur. #-o If its in any single model run then its the most likely outcome as far as that model computation is concerned. If it occurs over several different models run at the same time, or in several runs of the same model (ensembles) then you could could consider it "becoming more likely".

No one is saying you cant talk about this event ahead of time. Tim's point was that he didnt feel a separate thread should be created until 3 days out. I'm not sure I agree with that, as there can be a lot of posts for moderators to shift around to a dedicated thread if we wait till 3 days out. However, perhaps starting this one 7 days out was a little excessive!
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

TonyT wrote: Tim's point was that he didnt feel a separate thread should be created until 3 days out. I'm not sure I agree with that, as there can be a lot of posts for moderators to shift around to a dedicated thread if we wait till 3 days out.
I think it should be taken at a rule of thumb not a strict rule, but I still stand behind what I said.
Weather event threads shouldn't be made too far ahead of time, when forecasts are prone to flip flop.
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by melja »

HAHA WeatherWatch said it was going to happen it must be true :-w
I don't take much interest in what they say now after hearing Richard Green on newstalk zb this morning saying we wont get any more warm 18deg days like Saturday, I have heard that from him every Monday for a month now and he's been wrong evey time.
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

I like the idea of only creating an event specific thread three days out. All other talk about it can go into the General Thread for that month.

HAHA WeatherWatch said it was going to happen it must be true

Btw getting sick of the baiting of Weatherwatch by a few on here. Keep your criticism constructive please.
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Exactly do we not all get the weather wrong in here ourselves I am sure we do ;-) , we would be just as useless if not better at the same time should we be working for Met Service or Weather Watch [-X .
Everyone makes mistakes its normal, I will admit though there are some little things with MS that really are not rocket science to know.
But then we get that for our own local knowledge of how the weather develops through different windflows and patterns, should MS forecasters have office bases across regions of NZ maybe :-k .

Anyway I always say with a rule of thumb just make a topic 2-3 days out before an event, because things change so much over a week and we have this expectancy that it will snow to very low levels if not sea level which is now looking less likely.
We wont know until say Wednesday to be sure whether we have a topic that runs dead or carries on, in this instance its ok because the low is now being plotted to hit us Friday/Saturday instead of Sunday/Monday.
But as I say the air is looking abit too warm with the THK values right up and the 850 as well, its also more a S-SE flow and not much of a polar drag like it was showing.
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by jamie »

Uh why not just make a topic for model discussion of upcoming event (model disc - southerly blast 14-18 June) and 2-3 days out create a new thread (southerly blast 14-18th june) if its looking likely? The term model disc at the start of a topic would be helpful in filtering out all the talk (which i must i admit most of the time i enjoy) but i also dont think dumping it in general weather topic is the right place either.
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by Orion »

With the greatest respect, and as a complete amateur :mrgreen: , I would like to say that I have enjoyed reading the "distant early warning" threads and becoming slightly more familiar with the contingencies that affect the final outcome.
I can't recall many forecasts that haven't eventuated, actually, and always marvel at you experts' talents =D>
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by NZstorm »

I have no problem with long range threads when there is a high level of interest and multiple posts in a day. I agree with Jamie, label the thread as model discussion.
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by matttbs »

I agree with the last two posts. This thread should be renamed "premature weather thread, let's all complain about it"
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by spwill »

03Stormchaser wrote: Btw getting sick of the baiting of Weatherwatch by a few on here. Keep your criticism constructive please.
Agree
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by CWUweather »

Okay, i probably shouldn't have created the thread, but it's always good to get peoples opinions!
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Re: Very cold southerly blast possible 14th-18th June

Unread post by TonyT »

03Stormchaser wrote:I
HAHA WeatherWatch said it was going to happen it must be true

Btw getting sick of the baiting of Weatherwatch by a few on here. Keep your criticism constructive please.
I didnt read that as criticism of Weatherwatch, but rather of the original post which seemed to show blind faith in that particular prediction.
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