Large Tasman Low June 15 to 18th

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NZ Thunderstorm Soc
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Large Tasman Low June 15 to 18th

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Looks like a large Tasman low is set to become the dominant weather feature from this WE June 15th .
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by matttbs »

Yes I think we are going to have quite a wet week ahead of us beginning Sunday. It won't take much to accumulate, the soils still soaked from the last rain event!
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

According to the models, it should hang around over NZ to about Thursday before drifting off, or being absorbed in a SW flow. Should be quite a bit of rain around, in many parts of the country.
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by NZstorm »

Latest run of gfs has the South Island getting the rainfall hit from this system Sunday/Monday. Looks to be about right considering the strong onshore flows. I think Bay of Plenty should get a good soaking too. Heavy snow possible in the Canterbury foothills so may be good for Mt Hutt.
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Yes latest GFS run going for around 100mm for CHCH city. No doubt that will back off a bit but looking more likely for a significant rain event.
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by matttbs »

wednesday night has a thickness level of 520 for canterbury. Isnt that cold enough for sea level snow?
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by melja »

Not much moisture round at that time tho so not much use having cold temps if the rains not around.
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by TonyT »

matttbs wrote:wednesday night has a thickness level of 520 for canterbury. Isnt that cold enough for sea level snow?
Usually, yes.
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by melja »

Going by this then I don't think even the hill of Canterbury will even get snow but im sure it will swing around a bit more yet.
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

I haven't been expecting low level snow with this at all really. I reckon top of ski fields will do alright but that's about it. 100mm in this mornings GFS down to around 60mm. Big question is will the next GFS run in an hour or so step it back up or continue to taper off to be far less significant. Only time will tell.
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by spwill »

Perhaps some low level snow on the back side of this low system next week.

Of interest for northern NZ will be the chance of thunder Sun through to mid week.
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Looking less significant all the time now on gfs. 40mm now.
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by Avalanche »

Its looking significant for the Nelson Region, 300mm one news had just mentioned.
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Still looking reasonably significant for rainfall especially for the likes of a lot of Christchurch which have never ending plasters on the roads that the council puts on them 2-3 times a month :crazy: and the storm water systems abit un balanced.
The end of the week has the cold tail end Charlie polar rodent which when this low first appeared a week ago was bringing that air in with it, so there could be some scattered wintry showers on Thursday maybe in the ice form :-w .
But anyway lets have a taste of H20 for now by the gallon :lol: , having said that I don't wish it apon anyone living the region currently but that's mother nature :P
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by Bradley »

The Bureau Of Meteorology combined forecast model going for 200mm+ for inland Canterbury and around 125mm for Christchurch up to Tuesday afternoon...here's hoping they are way off!!
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by Avalanche »

Well i must say the latest GFS is interesting this morning, A really cold southerly with a developing low of the south island east coast could get interesting. Certainly looks like a lot of rain for the next few days. Poor ole Nelson's been getting a few flooding storms in recent times.
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by spwill »

There is model agreement for the cold air this time, could be a significant weather week next week.
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

There is model agreement for the cold air this time
yes
now you can pull out all the chocks!
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

I see Metservice have severe weather warning issued now for Canterbury but only south of Rakaia.
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by Chris Raine »

Looks like we are in the firing line in North Otago for this incoming event
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by wembley »

We could try getting planes up loaded with tonnes of soot to drop into the cloud tops in strategic areas of that low to just nudge it off course so it harmlessly tracks out into the ocean and misses us completely.

The soot, being black would absorb the sun's heat and warm up the cloud tops also possibly weakening the system.
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by matttbs »

Looks more likely for low level snow in Canterbury from Wednesday night onwards
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Yeah at this stage very cold air from Wednesday night in line with some good moisture too, so we could be looking at a decent dump of snow to sea level into Thursday.
But lets just wait and see how the models shape up over the coming days first, we need to get through phase one of this low first :B .
I like how the 850mb runs at a good temperature for a good amount of time, this will over time bring the others into line should it stay similar, straight onshore gale southerly wind flow too so none of this offshore crud.
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by sw_windbow »

80-120mm for Dunedin is a great teetering stack of rain for these weary old catchments. The Leith will start this event sitting on 0.6 cumecs which is about twice normal, and the ground is well wet from last month's 140ish mms and the 40mms at the start of this month.
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Re: Large Tasman Low

Unread post by Razor »

Gee this looks like a real doozy for the next 5-6 days, something for everyone
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