Large Tasman Low June 15 to 18th

[matttbs]

what the heck, was very promising but now the thickness over canterbury during wed/thur is only 532

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

What you looking at. Latest run for gfs thickness 512 as per other thread for then.

[matttbs]

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... fresh+View

I got this site from weatherwatch.co.nz.
What you looking at?

[TonyT]

Theres a lot of variation between models and from model run to model run at present. Welcome to the world of forecasting.

[Tornado Tim]

The front on the east of the upper north island looks quite potent tomorrow with relatively high ML cape and an EHI of 0.55 and significant shear.
That value is fairly high for NZ so id say there is a risk of Tornado on the coast at least.

I think there is a risk of storms developing on this front also due to the upper jet, forcing and the resultant latent heat due to abundant mid level moisture.
Seems like the front will come across Auckland around 8-9PM and around 10-11PM for Hamilton, hopefully laced with lightning

[CWUweather]

Decent development occurring over the city currently. earlier than i expected. going to be very wet tomorrow i feel

[melja]

Rain on the west coast all day today but now very heavy in the last few hours and windy, not sure why M/S has the rain warning for the coast south off hokitka as the rain band looks to be coming ashore more to the north.
Nelson also looks to be missing the bad rain as of yet.
Just ticked over 40mm for today at the bach with much more to come.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Steady light to moderate rain overnight. No heavy stuff as yet. 18mm so far.

[Orion]

Steady light to moderate rain here also;
5.0 degrees at present.

[Richard]

5deg also and 12mm so far,just started to get heavier in the last few mins

[Andy]

Rain falling here as well 20mm so far temp 3 degrees.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Yes, the bulk heavy stuff seems to be out to sea in the Canterbury Bight. Wonder when it will start onshore.

[snowstormwatcher]

21mm here for the event so far. 6 degrees.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

I wonder what's causing the sheltering over the city now when the rain band is coming from the NNW... Rain not as heavy and widespread as models have predicted so far. Stopped raining completely here now. Will see if it starts up steady again in next hour or so.

[Richard]

Dont worry there's heavier stuff coming from the north,raining well here now.

[spwill]

The snow level looks to be below 1000m in places this morning, going by some web cams .

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Dont worry there's heavier stuff coming from the north,raining well here now.

Yup, we have it here now. Huge drops in it

[Chris Raine]

Steady light rain here 1-1.5mm an hour 19.5mm to 0900 this morning

[spwill]

Snow level in places is down to about 700m, Mnt forecast had it above 1500m for today

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Good steady rain band coming through again now from the north. 24.5mm so far.

[David]

Gloomy morning with light rain here, falling at about 1 mm/hr. Just reached 100mm for the month.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Looks like the rain band to the North of Canterbury is running out fast at the back end....Models show it should be feeding in for at least another 24 hours..

[Orion]

Had had 25mm rain to 9am this morning; a further 8mm there now making total of 33mm for the event so far.
Presently 5.2 degrees and steady moderate rain continues.

[Tornado Tim]

Yes overcast all morning as well with light steady rain falling.
Around 6mm so far today with a mild 14°C.

[David]

Auckland VHF warning says NE 40 knots gusts 60 knots in the Hauraki Gulf this evening!

GALE WARNING A26 FOR MANUKAU HARBOUR, WAITEMATA HARBOUR
Northeast 25 knots gusting 35 knots, rising to 35 knots gusting 50 knots this afternoon, Then easing below warning and advisory criteria this evening.
GALE WARNING A26 FOR HAURAKI GULF
Northeast 35 knots gusting 50 knots, rising to 40 knots gusting 60 knots for a time this evening, then easing below warning and advisory criteria tonight.
GALE WARNING A26 FOR THE AREA FROM BREAM HEAD TO CAPE COLVILLE
Northeast 35 knots gusting 50 knots, rising to 40 knots gusting 60 knots this afternoon, then easing below warning and advisory criteria this evening.
This warning cancels and replaces ADVISORY A25