Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Archive of NZ Weather & Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
Avalanche
Posts: 162
Joined: Wed 09/06/2010 17:24
Location: Wellington
Has thanked: 20 times
Been thanked: 6 times

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by Avalanche »

harveyt86 wrote:Hi all, long time lurker first time poster. I'm a real amatuer but to my untrained eyes looking at the models it seems like the wind is coming from a little too far east now during the heaviest precip? Either way it looks like being an interesting few days ahead!
Yea i see that harvey, but by that stage the coldest air is already here surrounding NZ so it shouldnt matter.
matttbs
Posts: 466
Joined: Mon 27/05/2013 19:16
Location: Inland mayfield 310asl
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 7 times

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by matttbs »

Metservice have forecast snow for timers and ashVegas thurs/fri and lots of it by the looks of it, 30+cm
Auckland & Tauranga
User avatar
CHCH Weather Chaser
Posts: 3460
Joined: Thu 26/06/2008 16:10
Location: Halswell / Hoon Hay Christchurch
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Latest GFS very consistant with moisture showing 90mm for CHCH but the thing that has changed is the thickness had dropped down to 520 on the back end for around 15mm of it. So at this stage looks like rain with heavy falls through to late Thursday then snow looking more likely at sea level overnight Thursday throughout Friday.
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas

2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by NZstorm »

12Z gfs has a secondary upper trough over the South Island Friday. Last couple of model runs have had it out to the west of the South Island but latest run has it over the SI. Something to keep an eye on in the gfs as this would generate snow showers to sea level.

GFS model for midnight Friday.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
mikestormchaser
Posts: 2711
Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
Has thanked: 355 times
Been thanked: 607 times

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

NZstorm wrote:12Z gfs has a secondary upper trough over the South Island Friday. Last couple of model runs have had it out to the west of the South Island but latest run has it over the SI. Something to keep an eye on in the gfs as this would generate snow showers to sea level.

GFS model for midnight Friday.
yaaaay :) back on track it seems thurs night/ into fri!! \:D/
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
Bradley
Posts: 1516
Joined: Wed 01/05/2013 21:06
Location: Christchurch
Has thanked: 142 times
Been thanked: 269 times

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by Bradley »

Wow, metservice going for 9C for Christchurch Thursday now, seems like it could be about 3-4C too warm!!!
Avalanche
Posts: 162
Joined: Wed 09/06/2010 17:24
Location: Wellington
Has thanked: 20 times
Been thanked: 6 times

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by Avalanche »

The moisture coming from this developing storm is getting more and more moisture in it, Latest GFS has it now well truely affecting Wellington too. Just wondering from what you pro weather forecasters can see is this gonna turn into low level snow for us like 100 or 200 metres?? Or is it going to end up being heavy sleet and rain for 24 hours??
melja
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
Location: Waikawa, Picton
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 74 times

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by melja »

Yeah I think 9deg is a little optimistic by M/S :lol:
Bradley
Posts: 1516
Joined: Wed 01/05/2013 21:06
Location: Christchurch
Has thanked: 142 times
Been thanked: 269 times

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by Bradley »

This is turning more and more like a June 06' event, very little snow for anything at sea level in Canterbury but a massive amount for anything inland and at elevation...
Avalanche
Posts: 162
Joined: Wed 09/06/2010 17:24
Location: Wellington
Has thanked: 20 times
Been thanked: 6 times

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by Avalanche »

Bradley wrote:Wow, metservice going for 9C for Christchurch Thursday now, seems like it could be about 3-4C too warm!!!
How the heck is it gonna be 9 degrees when the isobar lines come directly from the antarctic?? I think the metservice have got it wrong, or the computers generating the models are just plan confused and havnt factored in the freezing cold southerly currently on its way. Its abit like the 2006 storm, warm front comes across Tasman sea and collides with freezing southerly which caused mass snow dump in Canterbury. Maybe the MS are finding this hard to forecast?
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5121
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 717 times
Been thanked: 923 times

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by Razor »

Its also getting more and more easterly in the wind as the predictions progess too. I find it really hard to see sea level snow in that scenario, just not believing it is going to be anything other than a large and annoying amount of rain for most of us - yet. Happy to be wrong!
Christchurch Rocks
Avalanche
Posts: 162
Joined: Wed 09/06/2010 17:24
Location: Wellington
Has thanked: 20 times
Been thanked: 6 times

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by Avalanche »

Razor wrote:Its also getting more and more easterly in the wind as the predictions progess too. I find it really hard to see sea level snow in that scenario, just not believing it is going to be anything other than a large and annoying amount of rain for most of us - yet. Happy to be wrong!
Just got Phil duncans report, hes still saying snow to sea level possible even tho it maybe brief to sea level for Wellington. I think i will go with Phils forecast. MS seem to playing it safe
RWood
Posts: 3745
Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
Location: Wellington
Has thanked: 188 times
Been thanked: 123 times

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by RWood »

Avalanche wrote:
Razor wrote:Its also getting more and more easterly in the wind as the predictions progess too. I find it really hard to see sea level snow in that scenario, just not believing it is going to be anything other than a large and annoying amount of rain for most of us - yet. Happy to be wrong!
Just got Phil duncans report, hes still saying snow to sea level possible even tho it maybe brief to sea level for Wellington. I think i will go with Phils forecast. MS seem to playing it safe
Charming - if it happens. Already a very drab damp month here (last sunny day was the 7th with a shortish topup on the 10th). The only upside is that following the southerly there may be a fine period like the aftermath of the August 2011 event.
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

Dan Corbett on TV1 breakfast mentioned about the marine layer..i.e the southerly needs to overcome that
(i.e the 12C sea surface temperature to the SE of the South Island is warming the air above it)
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6216
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Has thanked: 468 times
Been thanked: 1064 times

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by Nev »

Bradley wrote:Wow, metservice going for 9C for Christchurch Thursday now, seems like it could be about 3-4C too warm!!!
9C is the high for today, with tomorrow's high being 7C.
'NiwaWeather' currently going for a high of 8C today and 5C tomorrow.
Growler
Posts: 72
Joined: Sat 13/08/2011 21:08
Location: The Town of the Future! Today!
Has thanked: 23 times
Been thanked: 32 times

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by Growler »

I see the 500 drops down to 520 for some of the precip again now. This really has been a very confusing week of runs, I am still no clearer on what may or may not take place!
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
matttbs
Posts: 466
Joined: Mon 27/05/2013 19:16
Location: Inland mayfield 310asl
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 7 times

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by matttbs »

weatherwatch still predicting snow to sea level for christchurch tonight, but metservice just has rain and wintry showers
Auckland & Tauranga
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5121
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 717 times
Been thanked: 923 times

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by Razor »

Dan Corbett on radio saying no significant snow risk for chch city. Sounds like metservice styled on 200-300m levels
Christchurch Rocks
User avatar
TonyT
Moderator
Posts: 2878
Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
Has thanked: 352 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by TonyT »

The current situation is so marginal, with such a big lump of moisture to play with, the models really do need to get the temps bang on or the snow level will change significantly. While all the data I can lay my hands on still says sea level will be in the melt zone, it will only take a 1-1.5deg temp change at 850 and it will be all on for sea level snow. In Christchurch the margins for error on this are very very fine, and the consequences in terms of the outcome just huge. Places like Darfield, Hanmer, Oxford, Cheviot are all really in the gun though, and I hope everyone there stays safe.
Fujita Phil
Posts: 759
Joined: Wed 03/12/2003 15:44
Location: Dunedin, NZ
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 11 times
Contact:

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by Fujita Phil »

It's gone very quiet here since people now think this is a non Chch event :-#

Looking great on the radar from the south and it getting colder here in Dunners :D
There is no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothes.
melja
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
Location: Waikawa, Picton
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 74 times

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by melja »

I was just thinking that too.
LittleTreeHouse
Posts: 70
Joined: Wed 26/05/2010 19:53
Location: Southbridge, Canterbury
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by LittleTreeHouse »

TonyT wrote:In Christchurch the margins for error on this are very very fine, and the consequences in terms of the outcome just huge. Places like Darfield, Hanmer, Oxford, Cheviot are all really in the gun though, and I hope everyone there stays safe.
Hi Tony :) What are your thoughts on places like Southbridge & Leeston? We have been known to get snow when the city doesn't and then we have nothing when the city does! I use the Metservice forecast for Rakaia as it's the only one kinda close and that is saying snow to sea level Friday at the moment?
User avatar
TonyT
Moderator
Posts: 2878
Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
Has thanked: 352 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by TonyT »

I truly dont know! This is totally a double or nothing wait and see situation.
mikestormchaser
Posts: 2711
Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
Has thanked: 355 times
Been thanked: 607 times

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Southbridge.. that isnt to far away from rolleston is it?? new model run GFS is through, suggests snow from about 10 or 11pm tomorrow night into fri.
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
User avatar
Tornado Tim
Moderator
Posts: 4920
Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
Has thanked: 102 times
Been thanked: 202 times
Contact:

Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Just saw an article segment on 3 news mentioning a particular Facebook page and the author, not sure what to make of it :?
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
Locked