Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

[Bradley]

At least 1-2C too warm for it to snow to any great depth at sea-level on Thursday in Canterbury at this stage, the models in general have ramped up moisture over the past few days but increased the temp of the polar mass by around 1-2C...

[David]

Interesting... the other day GFS had the 850mb temp -4 to -5 even up north, now up to -1. Perhaps it won't be unusually cold up here after all

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

So sea level snow out of the question in any decent numbers then?? All those times we are always lacking moisture and this time theres too much moisture and its warmed up the Thk levels

It will still be great snow for you though! Well Should be.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Amazing that there is 9 pages before the event

[TonyT]

So sea level snow out of the question in any decent numbers then?? All those times we are always lacking moisture and this time theres too much moisture and its warmed up the Thk levels

Nothing is ever out of the question, just less likely

[Razor]

Amazing that there is 9 pages before the event

and what's wrong with that? Its an internet chat room about weather after all

[Talbotm]

I must say some people are panicking in CHCH city i had to wait for over an hour at city firewood and the wife said the supermarkets are packed. All the bread had sold out at hornby pack n save. There was a few people filling gas bottles today too.

[Razor]

Amazing that there is 9 pages before the event

and what's wrong with that? Its an internet chat room about weather after all

[matttbs]

A few people around here (farmers) are quite worried about stock well being, if we do get a wind chill of -10C i think we will see a few stock losses throughout the region

[mikestormchaser]

Amazing that there is 9 pages before the event

and what's wrong with that? Its an internet chat room about weather after all

I dont think he is suggesting anything is wrong with that razor, just unusually alot of posts leading up to an event

[matttbs]

So have the chances of sea level snow gone for wednesday night and into thurs? Im half way between ashburton and timaru so maybe we will be a deg or two colder than you guys in christchurch?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Amazing that there is 9 pages before the event

and what's wrong with that? Its an internet chat room about weather after all

I dont think he is suggesting anything is wrong with that razor, just unusually alot of posts leading up to an event

Yes. There was discussion on another topic about lots of posting before the actual event. I was just commenting on that

[Avalanche]

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Hi Tim, not sure if ive done it right but please let me know. This is a image i saw before about the thicknesses is this right??

[Bradley]

The latest models are of a big concern to me if anyone is wanting snow from 100m above sea level down to sea level, even looking at the temps from the May 28th event the current temps being thrown up for Thursday/Friday are 1-2C warmer then May 28th and even that event was a few degrees too warm for snow in the city. Anyway it's not looking good for anything at all at sea level at this stage

[Talbotm]

Yea but as the southerly kicks in properly by friday there will be snow showers to sea level surely??

It sounds like this storm is turning into a fizza??

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Yea but as the southerly kicks in properly by friday there will be snow showers to sea level surely??

Friday looks most likely but with all the rain prior very little chance of anything settling I would think. I think a rain warning needs to be issued! State around here currently.

[TonyT]

Y
It sounds like this storm is turning into a fizza??

See if you still feel that way on Saturday

[snowstormwatcher]

It sounds like this storm is turning into a fizza??

Not really, Just looks like lots of rain/sleet at sea level and heaps of snow up higher. but then warm advective snow can fall a lot lower than what the models would suggest.

[Flutterbye]

Yea but as the southerly kicks in properly by friday there will be snow showers to sea level surely??

Friday looks most likely but with all the rain prior very little chance of anything settling I would think. I think a rain warning needs to be issued! State around here currently.

If snow is heavy enough, it'll settle no matter how wet it is! Thick snow settled on my fishpond in September 2010 and you can't get much wetter than that!

[NZstorm]

Avalanche, that is the 500mb temperatures.

This is the thickness. 1000mb to 500mb (near surface to 5000m)

[Talbotm]

It sounds like this storm is turning into a fizza??

Not really, Just looks like lots of rain/sleet at sea level and heaps of snow up higher. but then warm advective snow can fall a lot lower than what the models would suggest.

What are your thoughts on this Tony?? could the warm advective bring the temp down??

[melja]

Funny how people put so much trust in those models and there thickness levels but when they start saying what they don't want to hear they say to dismiss what there saying

Anyway don't think I would be to worried about the snow at this point in the lowland plains but rather the huge amount of rain coming up in those models, think about another 100+mm on top of what we have had and much more in the foothills the ashley bridge in Rangiora has lost one of its piers today because of flooding so I think there will be flooding carnage if this rainfall comes true.

[TonyT]

Yes it could, trouble is, I didnt see any warm advection in the 0z model run

[Avalanche]

Avalanche, that is the 500mb temperatures.

This is the thickness. 1000mb to 500mb (near surface to 5000m)

Yay thanks nzstorm thats what i been looking for. cheers

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

It would be a bit of nuisance if this turns into a fizzer as I ordered 16 loads of dry firewood. Went to Pack'n Save and bought $699 of groceries, including 10 litres of milk and other groceries I wouldn't need to buy, just in case we got snowed out. The freezer is now over fulling and the pantry is full of cans of food, just incase we can't get out for days. I bought lots of cans of petrol for the generator for when the power goes off and showels for when we have to scoop off the drive so we can get to the garage. The bill so far is $1285.
Coffee and tea supplies are OK but on the way home from work tomorrow, I''ll have to buy 15 dozen beer to keep me through this cold outbrreak, although a warm toddy would be much better, maybe rum or mulled wine or a sloe gin.
Sorry, for being cynical, but people do go to extremes when an event like this may or not occur