Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

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Razor
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by Razor »

TonyT wrote:Yes it could, trouble is, I didnt see any warm advection in the 0z model run :-(
That'll put a *ahem* dampner on discussions.... :-w
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by TonyT »

Razor wrote:
TonyT wrote:Yes it could, trouble is, I didnt see any warm advection in the 0z model run :-(
That'll put a *ahem* dampner on discussions.... :-w
I probably shouldnt have mentioned it, you'd have all been happier that way... :lol: :lol:
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by NZstorm »

Razor wrote:
TonyT wrote:Yes it could, trouble is, I didnt see any warm advection in the 0z model run :-(
That'll put a *ahem* dampner on discussions.... :-w

The warm advection has occurred in the last few days so the moisture is in place now. The snow event can be called warm advective because that's ultimately the source of the moisture/heavy snow.
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by Talbotm »

Well maybe the metservice are looking at different models as the latest road snowfall has porters now receiving 100cm Thats a big change from the 60cm they were predicting earlier
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Where do you go to get those type of models nzstorm?? they are easier to read when it comes to 500mb temps etc.
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by Richard »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:It would be a bit of nuisance if this turns into a fizzer as I ordered 16 loads of dry firewood. Went to Pack'n Save and bought $699 of groceries, including 10 litres of milk and other groceries I wouldn't need to buy, just in case we got snowed out. The freezer is now over fulling and the pantry is full of cans of food, just incase we can't get out for days. I bought lots of cans of petrol for the generator for when the power goes off and showels for when we have to scoop off the drive so we can get to the garage. The bill so far is $1285.
Coffee and tea supplies are OK but on the way home from work tomorrow, I''ll have to buy 15 dozen beer to keep me through this cold outbrreak, although a warm toddy would be much better, maybe rum or mulled wine or a sloe gin.
Sorry, for being cynical, but people do go to extremes when an event like this may or not occur :smile: :D
I know what you mean John,i went to the supermarket today and it was chocker
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by trickytiger »

Can't say i've even been close to the supermarket... Will have a look as i'm going past to the petrol station to fill the car's tank right up after course tomorrow.
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by Avalanche »

mikestormchaser wrote:Where do you go to get those type of models nzstorm?? they are easier to read when it comes to 500mb temps etc.
I copy and pasted this for you mikestormchaser. cheers

http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... RES=0&WMO=
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by Dean. »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:It would be a bit of nuisance if this turns into a fizzer as I ordered 16 loads of dry firewood. Went to Pack'n Save and bought $699 of groceries, including 10 litres of milk and other groceries I wouldn't need to buy, just in case we got snowed out. The freezer is now over fulling and the pantry is full of cans of food, just incase we can't get out for days. I bought lots of cans of petrol for the generator for when the power goes off and showels for when we have to scoop off the drive so we can get to the garage. The bill so far is $1285.
Coffee and tea supplies are OK but on the way home from work tomorrow, I''ll have to buy 15 dozen beer to keep me through this cold outbrreak, although a warm toddy would be much better, maybe rum or mulled wine or a sloe gin.
Sorry, for being cynical, but people do go to extremes when an event like this may or not occur :smile: :D
Haha sounds like Cairns under a cyclone watch...apart from the firewood!
Will enjoy watching the outcome from these 27 degree winter days in Cairns...actually wish I was back home :wave:
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by Talbotm »

The metservice has put another update at 9.11pm still saying snow to near sea level yet the latest GFS at 534 doesn't support that does it??
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Avalanche wrote:
mikestormchaser wrote:Where do you go to get those type of models nzstorm?? they are easier to read when it comes to 500mb temps etc.
I copy and pasted this for you mikestormchaser. cheers

http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... RES=0&WMO=
Thank you indeed avalanche :)
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by tich »

With such a strong outburst of cold air coming all the way from Antarctic, I can't image it not snowing to sea-level in the South Island, and low down in the central North Island. Are GFS predicting warmer air coming from around the low expected to the east?
At least it should hold off (the really cold air) until after Wednesday night, so I can get back to Chch tomorrow afternoon.
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by matttbs »

Wow from "where gonna get so much snow to sea level" to "not looking very promising" is doing my head in! I think I'm just gonna wait and see what happens. Models are changing too much which must be making it a nightmare to predict. Can we still expect -10deg wind chill? I have 600 dairy cows under my watch and would hate to loose some from the cold
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by gopolks »

Dont live in chch anymore, hope you guys get ya snow, I would be jealous, but i was in the usa for CT big snow storm in feb, 24 inches of the stuff, thought the snow would be nice and hard to walk on, but it was like a freakin powder, I just sunk.

In nelson now, so no chance of snow. :-(
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by melja »

That's why dairy farmers shouldn't chop down all the shelter belts on the Canterbury plains, it will get them one day.
I would find the most sheltered area on your farm.
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by trickytiger »

a lot of trees gone from our farm (because of border dyking not being allowed anymore and 2 new pivots going in to replace that system) and most our cows are currently up on the run-off hill at 400 - 450m asl
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by matttbs »

Animals would have been fine if they were on farm but since their grazing they have bugger all shelter. Maybe because we are right on the ocean we will escape the majority of this storm. Time will tell I guess
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

matttbs wrote:Animals would have been fine if they were on farm but since their grazing they have bugger all shelter. Maybe because we are right on the ocean we will escape the majority of this storm. Time will tell I guess
The wind chill will be what gets them by the coast.
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by Storm Struck »

I know the models are leaning the other way and it probably sounds like wishful thinking, but I just get the feeling a lot of the models are missing something with this event.
Something is making it warmer when it really shouldn't be, this air is coming from the ross ice shelf which doesn't happen that often I don't even think the 2006 snowstorm brought air from that far south.
For now its safer to focus on snow for the tail end part of the system as that's when the coldest air shows on the models, but at the end of the day they are just computer model systems.
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by matttbs »

Does anyone know what the percentage of computer models that actually come true?
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by TonyT »

matttbs wrote:Does anyone know what the percentage of computer models that actually come true?
You need to read up on "Anomaly correlation" or AC. Typically the AC is used as a forecast verification metric for models with the analysis at hand. A good value for a 5-day forecast is AC = 0.90 which is where ECMWF and GFS generally lie. This suggests that at 5 days the forecast grid of data is usually at about 90% of what happens. Of course that does vary from model run to model run, and from grid to grid, and probably seasonally as well. It also wont tell you about persistent model errors (like not making blocking highs block for long enough east of NZ).
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by CWUweather »

Storm Struck wrote:I know the models are leaning the other way and it probably sounds like wishful thinking, but I just get the feeling a lot of the models are missing something with this event.
Something is making it warmer when it really shouldn't be, this air is coming from the ross ice shelf which doesn't happen that often I don't even think the 2006 snowstorm brought air from that far south.
For now its safer to focus on snow for the tail end part of the system as that's when the coldest air shows on the models, but at the end of the day they are just computer model systems.
I agree, something isnt adding up, or atleast i dont think so!
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by David »

I have to say I'm somewhat surprised how GFS has suddenly 'warmed up' it's predictions in the last 24hrs or so.
Whatever happens, I'm just glad uni is over for the semester so I can keep warm inside over the next few days lol
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by matttbs »

TonyT wrote:
matttbs wrote:Does anyone know what the percentage of computer models that actually come true?
You need to read up on "Anomaly correlation" or AC. Typically the AC is used as a forecast verification metric for models with the analysis at hand. A good value for a 5-day forecast is AC = 0.90 which is where ECMWF and GFS generally lie. This suggests that at 5 days the forecast grid of data is usually at about 90% of what happens. Of course that does vary from model run to model run, and from grid to grid, and probably seasonally as well. It also wont tell you about persistent model errors (like not making blocking highs block for long enough east of NZ).
Thanks for that Tony :smile:
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Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

Unread post by harveyt86 »

Hi all, long time lurker first time poster. I'm a real amatuer but to my untrained eyes looking at the models it seems like the wind is coming from a little too far east now during the heaviest precip? Either way it looks like being an interesting few days ahead!
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