Cold outbreak July 14-15
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
- Lawrence
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Re: Cold outbreak July 14-15
That magic 522 thickness line is back again I see. Always a good sign. Models have been a bit either way for this event so playing this one close to my chest.
- NZstorm
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Re: Cold outbreak July 14-15
00ZGFS takes the cold air a long way north but I suspect it will come back a bit in future runs.
Thickness chart for midnight Sunday.
Thickness chart for midnight Sunday.
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Re: Cold outbreak July 14-15
Could be good for thunder/hail chances for you if that keeps up nzstorm.. want that to stay like that in terms of Thickness, but looks coastal for canterbury going by that.NZstorm wrote:00ZGFS takes the cold air a long way north but I suspect it will come back a bit in future runs.
Thickness chart for midnight Sunday.
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
Stormchasers.co.nz
- NZstorm
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Re: Cold outbreak July 14-15
mikestormchaser wrote:Could be good for thunder/hail chances for you if that keeps up nzstorm.. want that to stay like that in terms of Thickness, but looks coastal for canterbury going by that.NZstorm wrote:00ZGFS takes the cold air a long way north but I suspect it will come back a bit in future runs.
Thickness chart for midnight Sunday.
Being southerly, likely a non event for Auckland. But will get chilly here!
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Re: Cold outbreak July 14-15
Yes for thunder here you like to see the cold upper level system get out over the warm Tasman to pick up some moisture.
I'm driving from Wellington to the Central Plateau on Sunday, hopefully there will be no snow problems.
I'm driving from Wellington to the Central Plateau on Sunday, hopefully there will be no snow problems.
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Re: Cold outbreak July 14-15
You might have to race the southerly to the Desert Road spwill lol Good Luck!! I see theres alot of snow on the Desert Road thanks to this current storm skifields will be loving this.spwill wrote:Yes for thunder here you like to see the cold upper level system get out over the warm Tasman to pick up some moisture.
I'm driving from Wellington to the Central Plateau on Sunday, hopefully there will be no snow problems.
Looks promising for snow to 200 metres around Wellington.
- Richard
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Re: Cold outbreak July 14-15
Just the sort of promise I hate. We were doing well with more sun in 9 days of July than 23 days of June. The followup is loathsome and it beats me how anyone can enjoy it.Avalanche wrote:You might have to race the southerly to the Desert Road spwill lol Good Luck!! I see theres alot of snow on the Desert Road thanks to this current storm skifields will be loving this.spwill wrote:Yes for thunder here you like to see the cold upper level system get out over the warm Tasman to pick up some moisture.
I'm driving from Wellington to the Central Plateau on Sunday, hopefully there will be no snow problems.
Looks promising for snow to 200 metres around Wellington.
- TonyT
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Re: Cold outbreak July 14-15
The other thread was for the June 9th event, but the OP has changed the subject heading.Richard wrote:Do we really need two threads for the same event?
- petem8nz
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Re: Cold outbreak July 14-15
Quite right My Brother is in Hanmer on holiday and said it was snowingRazor wrote:Hammer webcam indicates its been snowing there
I'm no expert but I love severe weather!
- Storm Struck
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Re: Cold outbreak July 14-15
Looking like a reasonable event now with the precipitation levels increased abit, so should be a decent enough settling of snow to sea level nothing like the last few years but something .
I am not sure why MS are going with 300m? its clearly cold enough air even the metrogram runs lowest 521 through Sunday and a strong run on the 850mb temps at -8C.
I am not sure why MS are going with 300m? its clearly cold enough air even the metrogram runs lowest 521 through Sunday and a strong run on the 850mb temps at -8C.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
- Michael
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Re: Cold outbreak July 14-15
I certainly wont enjoy it as it will be Southwest/bee bop
RWood wrote:
Just the sort of promise I hate. We were doing well with more sun in 9 days of July than 23 days of June. The followup is loathsome and it beats me how anyone can enjoy it.
- NZstorm
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Re: Cold outbreak July 14-15
Forecast sounding for Dunedin midday Sunday. Cb tops up the east of the country will be low topped so this reduces the risk of sea level snow.
Dunedin hill suburbs will get a coating.
UKmet output.
Dunedin hill suburbs will get a coating.
UKmet output.
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Re: Cold outbreak July 14-15
Planning on a leisurely drive to the Chateau but I have never driven there from Wellington before.Avalanche wrote:
You might have to race the southerly to the Desert Road spwill lol Good Luck!! I see theres alot of snow on the Desert Road thanks to this current storm skifields will be loving this.
.
Last edited by spwill on Fri 12/07/2013 18:54, edited 1 time in total.
- NZstorm
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Re: Cold outbreak July 14-15
The road between Waiouru and Ohakune is where you could have issues. There is 100% chance the road will close later in the day so get there early.spwill wrote:Planning on a leisurely drive to the Chateau but I have never driven there from Wellington before.Avalanche wrote:
You might have to race the southerly to the Desert Road spwill lol Good Luck!! I see theres alot of snow on the Desert Road thanks to this current storm skifields will be loving this.
.
I see the altitude of the Chateau is 1119m
- Michael
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Re: Cold outbreak July 14-15
on the 15th august 2011 had to go through taranaki,though snow was there too.
- Lawrence
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Re: Cold outbreak July 14-15
Yeah! At the moment I am going to put my neck on the line and say that the low will deepen and slow towards the SE .Looking fairly decent for a Canterbury sea level event. I was expecting it to go a bit dry with less moisture but if that low keeps tracking the way it is, this might end up quite a good if not short, swift dump.Storm Struck wrote:Looking like a reasonable event now with the precipitation levels increased abit, so should be a decent enough settling of snow to sea level nothing like the last few years but something .
I am not sure why MS are going with 300m? its clearly cold enough air even the metrogram runs lowest 521 through Sunday and a strong run on the 850mb temps at -8C.
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Re: Cold outbreak July 14-15
Not sure why we started this thread as i had already started one for this event.
- David
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Re: Cold outbreak July 14-15
Wow, GFS has Auckland only around 9C on Monday, with an 850mb temp of -5C. Chilly!
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Re: Cold outbreak July 14-15
Its got me stumpedTalbotm wrote:Not sure why we started this thread as i had already started one for this event.
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Re: Cold outbreak July 14-15
Because the other thread was originally about the 9th and 14th but was later changed to just the 14th. Better to have different threads for separate events anyway.Razor wrote:Its got me stumpedTalbotm wrote:Not sure why we started this thread as i had already started one for this event.
- Richard
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Re: Cold outbreak July 14-15
So ok, if it was later changed to the 14th,why have another thread for the 14th.Skywatcher wrote: Because the other thread was originally about the 9th and 14th but was later changed to just the 14th. Better to have different threads for separate events anyway.
- David
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Re: Cold outbreak July 14-15
Maybe because the other one is for Canterbury onlyRazor wrote:Its got me stumpedTalbotm wrote:Not sure why we started this thread as i had already started one for this event.
- Richard
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Re: Cold outbreak July 14-15
But the other thread has some discussion regarding the desert road snowfallDavid wrote: Maybe because the other one is for Canterbury only