Cold outbreak July 14-15

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Thu 11/07/2013 18:11

That magic 522 thickness line is back again I see. $\:D/$ Always a good sign. Models have been a bit either way for this event so playing this one close to my chest.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 11/07/2013 20:50

00ZGFS takes the cold air a long way north but I suspect it will come back a bit in future runs.

Thickness chart for midnight Sunday.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Thu 11/07/2013 21:00

NZstorm wrote:00ZGFS takes the cold air a long way north but I suspect it will come back a bit in future runs.

Thickness chart for midnight Sunday.

Could be good for thunder/hail chances for you if that keeps up nzstorm.. want that to stay like that in terms of Thickness, but looks coastal for canterbury going by that.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 11/07/2013 21:29

mikestormchaser wrote:
NZstorm wrote:00ZGFS takes the cold air a long way north but I suspect it will come back a bit in future runs.

Thickness chart for midnight Sunday.
Could be good for thunder/hail chances for you if that keeps up nzstorm.. want that to stay like that in terms of Thickness, but looks coastal for canterbury going by that.

Being southerly, likely a non event for Auckland. But will get chilly here!

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 11/07/2013 21:50

Yes for thunder here you like to see the cold upper level system get out over the warm Tasman to pick up some moisture.

I'm driving from Wellington to the Central Plateau on Sunday, hopefully there will be no snow problems.

Avalanche · Unread post by **Avalanche** » Thu 11/07/2013 22:30

spwill wrote:Yes for thunder here you like to see the cold upper level system get out over the warm Tasman to pick up some moisture.

I'm driving from Wellington to the Central Plateau on Sunday, hopefully there will be no snow problems.

You might have to race the southerly to the Desert Road spwill lol Good Luck!! I see theres alot of snow on the Desert Road thanks to this current storm skifields will be loving this.

Looks promising for snow to 200 metres around Wellington.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Fri 12/07/2013 07:38

Do we really need two threads for the same event?

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Fri 12/07/2013 08:20

Avalanche wrote:
spwill wrote:Yes for thunder here you like to see the cold upper level system get out over the warm Tasman to pick up some moisture.

I'm driving from Wellington to the Central Plateau on Sunday, hopefully there will be no snow problems.
You might have to race the southerly to the Desert Road spwill lol Good Luck!! I see theres alot of snow on the Desert Road thanks to this current storm skifields will be loving this.

Looks promising for snow to 200 metres around Wellington.

Just the sort of promise I hate. We were doing well with more sun in 9 days of July than 23 days of June. The followup is loathsome and it beats me how anyone can enjoy it.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Fri 12/07/2013 09:25

Richard wrote:Do we really need two threads for the same event?

The other thread was for the June 9th event, but the OP has changed the subject heading.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 12/07/2013 14:46

Hammer webcam indicates its been snowing there

petem8nz · Unread post by **petem8nz** » Fri 12/07/2013 15:02

Razor wrote:Hammer webcam indicates its been snowing there

Quite right My Brother is in Hanmer on holiday and said it was snowing

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Fri 12/07/2013 15:44

Looking like a reasonable event now with the precipitation levels increased abit, so should be a decent enough settling of snow to sea level nothing like the last few years but something

.
I am not sure why MS are going with 300m? its clearly cold enough air even the metrogram runs lowest 521 through Sunday and a strong run on the 850mb temps at -8C.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Fri 12/07/2013 17:32

I certainly wont enjoy it as it will be Southwest/bee bop

RWood wrote:
Just the sort of promise I hate. We were doing well with more sun in 9 days of July than 23 days of June. The followup is loathsome and it beats me how anyone can enjoy it.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 12/07/2013 18:44

Forecast sounding for Dunedin midday Sunday. Cb tops up the east of the country will be low topped so this reduces the risk of sea level snow.

Dunedin hill suburbs will get a coating.

UKmet output.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 12/07/2013 18:49

Avalanche wrote:
You might have to race the southerly to the Desert Road spwill lol Good Luck!! I see theres alot of snow on the Desert Road thanks to this current storm skifields will be loving this.

.

Planning on a leisurely drive to the Chateau but I have never driven there from Wellington before.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 12/07/2013 18:55

spwill wrote:
Avalanche wrote:
You might have to race the southerly to the Desert Road spwill lol Good Luck!! I see theres alot of snow on the Desert Road thanks to this current storm skifields will be loving this.

.
Planning on a leisurely drive to the Chateau but I have never driven there from Wellington before.
I see the altitude of the Chateau is 1119m

The road between Waiouru and Ohakune is where you could have issues. There is 100% chance the road will close later in the day so get there early.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Fri 12/07/2013 19:09

on the 15th august 2011 had to go through taranaki,though snow was there too.

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Fri 12/07/2013 21:34

Storm Struck wrote:Looking like a reasonable event now with the precipitation levels increased abit, so should be a decent enough settling of snow to sea level nothing like the last few years but something .
I am not sure why MS are going with 300m? its clearly cold enough air even the metrogram runs lowest 521 through Sunday and a strong run on the 850mb temps at -8C.

Yeah! At the moment I am going to put my neck on the line and say that the low will deepen and slow towards the SE

.Looking fairly decent for a Canterbury sea level event. I was expecting it to go a bit dry with less moisture but if that low keeps tracking the way it is, this might end up quite a good if not short, swift dump. $\:D/$

Talbotm · Unread post by **Talbotm** » Fri 12/07/2013 22:46

Not sure why we started this thread as i had already started one for this event.

David · Unread post by **David** » Fri 12/07/2013 23:09

Wow, GFS has Auckland only around 9C on Monday, with an 850mb temp of -5C. Chilly!

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 12/07/2013 23:12

Talbotm wrote:Not sure why we started this thread as i had already started one for this event.

Its got me stumped

Skywatcher · Unread post by **Skywatcher** » Sat 13/07/2013 06:47

Razor wrote:
Talbotm wrote:Not sure why we started this thread as i had already started one for this event.
Its got me stumped

Because the other thread was originally about the 9th and 14th but was later changed to just the 14th. Better to have different threads for separate events anyway.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sat 13/07/2013 08:00

Skywatcher wrote: Because the other thread was originally about the 9th and 14th but was later changed to just the 14th. Better to have different threads for separate events anyway.

So ok, if it was later changed to the 14th,why have another thread for the 14th.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sat 13/07/2013 08:16

Razor wrote:
Talbotm wrote:Not sure why we started this thread as i had already started one for this event.
Its got me stumped

Maybe because the other one is for Canterbury only

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sat 13/07/2013 08:38

David wrote: Maybe because the other one is for Canterbury only

But the other thread has some discussion regarding the desert road snowfall

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