Regional climate change report

[NZstorm]

Released last week by the Office of the Prime Ministers Chief Science Advisory Committee. I'm not sure what the short word for that is. But it makes for interesting reading. Quite a dramatic lift in our mean temperature is forecast. Over the next 28 years (out to 2040) New Zealand's mean temperature is forecast to rise 0.9C. That is the mid range projection.

A rise in the mean temperature of 0.9C essentially shifts our climate 200km further north. To be pedantic, our climate is predicted to shift north at a rate of 7km a year, 70km in 10 years.

Auckland's current mean temperature from what I can gather is 15.3C. I have based that on the last 5 year averages from Auckland Airport 93110. So by 2040 we could have a mean temperature of 16.2C To put the rise in context our mean temperature 30 years ago was about 15.2C. So we are heading into a period of much sharper temperature rises according to predictions.

[Bradley]

All I'll say is that alot of people and companies have made a huge amount of money from this climate change theory, if they are correct however waiting until 2040 to act will be far too late. A tough one thats for sure!!

[NZstorm]

In the last 10 years Auckland Airports's average annual temperature has fluctuated from between 14.7C and 15.7C.

So it will be a hard number to keep tabs on.

[jamesrobert]

"I'm not sure what the short word for that is."

I could suggest one or two.....

[RWood]

"I'm not sure what the short word for that is."

I could suggest one or two.....

Perhaps you'll enlighten us with your expertise?

[melja]

Does anyone live up to your "Expertise" RWood we are all different and have different opinions so its about time you let them express them even if they don't conform with yours.

I just cant see it warming up that quick, 15.2C to 15.3C in the last 30 years but to 16.2C in the next 28 years just seems ridiculous.

[RWood]

The earlier poster needs to explain the timespans implied by the 15.2C and 15.3C means.
If someone can dig up an Enso-neutral chart for the last 3 decades or so there might be a starting point.

Meanwhile I have every right to object to the kind of cynical "seagull trolling" that other poster employs - popular on certain blogs.

[Bradley]

RWood - age does not necessarily mean wisdom and the fact you necessarily are always right and anyone else who has a different opinion to you needs to be ridiculed. It might pay for you to remember that

[NZstorm]

To be pedantic, our climate is predicted to shift north at a rate of 7km a year, 70km in 10 years.

According to predictions, in 10 years time Auckland will have the same climate as Waipu Beach, Northland.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

"I'm not sure what the short word for that is."

I could suggest one or two.....

It could be CHAC but i'm not to sure on this one

[Tornado Tim]

Please remember to not attack the person, just the opinion. Failure to do so will result in warnings and your post getting deleted.

[RWood]

RWood - age does not necessarily mean wisdom and the fact you necessarily are always right and anyone else who has a different opinion to you needs to be ridiculed. It might pay for you to remember that

I haven't even offered my opinion on the original report's claims - but I'm entitled to ask for a more concrete view from a person who clearly dismisses it out of hand in a contemptuous fashion, indeed in a way that is strongly reminiscent of rightwing/libertarian bloggers whose agenda is to ridicule any and all such reports regardless.

I am questioning the remark about a 0.1C rise in the Auckland means over the 30-year period, as it looks too small at first sight at least.

[RWood]

Over the next 28 years (out to 2040) New Zealand's mean temperature is forecast to rise 0.9C. That is the mid range projection.

That is not what the report states. I just re-read the PDF: It states that by 2040, the mean will be 0.9C higher than the 1980-2000 average.

I see some data at CliFlo which cites an increase of 0.7C in 30-year means for Auckland Aero (1941-70 to 1981-2010) in a 40-year timespan (albeit with some extrapolation for the earlier years using intersite comparison I think) - so what is the huge deal about 0.9C in some (mainly) future scenario?

It cites a presentation by NIWA and James Renwick for the origin of the numbers predicted, but I can't find that anywhere online.

[diessoli]

Auckland's current mean temperature from what I can gather is 15.3C. I have based that on the last 5 year averages from Auckland Airport 93110. So by 2040 we could have a mean temperature of 16.2C To put the rise in context our mean temperature 30 years ago was about 15.2C. So we are heading into a period of much sharper temperature rises according to predictions..

I just cant see it warming up that quick, 15.2C to 15.3C in the last 30 years but to 16.2C in the next 28 years just seems ridiculous.

0.9 refers to the mean across the whole country relative to the 1980-2000 average and your inferences w/r to the temperature rise in Auckland are not valid. And although they talk about the climate "in" 2040, those are really 20 averages with 2040 as the midpoint (as the footnotes in the report say).

D.

[RWood]

Auckland's current mean temperature from what I can gather is 15.3C. I have based that on the last 5 year averages from Auckland Airport 93110. So by 2040 we could have a mean temperature of 16.2C To put the rise in context our mean temperature 30 years ago was about 15.2C. So we are heading into a period of much sharper temperature rises according to predictions..

I just cant see it warming up that quick, 15.2C to 15.3C in the last 30 years but to 16.2C in the next 28 years just seems ridiculous.

0.9 refers to the mean across the whole country relative to the 1980-2000 average and your inferences w/r to the temperature rise in Auckland are not valid. And although they talk about the climate "in" 2040, those are really 20 averages with 2040 as the midpoint (as the footnotes in the report say).

D.

Never stops them rushing in though ... and then critcising me for objecting to blatant trolling ...

[jamesrobert]

"Perhaps you'll enlighten us with your expertise?"

"It could be CHAC but i'm not to sure on this one."

Chaac (also spelled Chac or, in Classic Mayan, Chaahk is the name of the Maya rain deity. (Wikipedia)

[diessoli]

I am also aware that forecasts over about three days are suspect, the seasonal forecasts are generally rubbish, so to forecast ahead forty years is just plain madness. No amount of smart-arse offensive political name calling can change that.

Are you saying that climate prediction is the same as forecasting the weather 40 (or more) years ahead?

D.

[jamesrobert]

[NZstorm]

0.9 refers to the mean across the whole country relative to the 1980-2000 average and your inferences w/r to the temperature rise in Auckland are not valid. And although they talk about the climate "in" 2040, those are really 20 averages with 2040 as the midpoint (as the footnotes in the report say).

The forecast rise for the country is 0.9C out to 2040.
In theory Auckland's mean temperature will be 0.9C higher, but it could be more or it could be less. Its only a prediction.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

This is my last post. I object to being labelled a troll (I'm too old to know what it means), and I strongly object to being labelled a rightwing/libertarian blogger. I do not regard this forum as a blog. Someone is just a bit too precious.

?

[NZstorm]

The climate change update report seems to omit a proper assessment of recent temperature data. We are told the change from the 1990 mean temperature to the 2040 mean temperature is predicted to rise by 0.9C. But there is no mention of how much of that rise has occurred to date. I would be interested to see this info for NZ also Auckland.

[RWood]

I am also aware that forecasts over about three days are suspect, the seasonal forecasts are generally rubbish, so to forecast ahead forty years is just plain madness. No amount of smart-arse offensive political name calling can change that.

Are you saying that climate prediction is the same as forecasting the weather 40 (or more) years ahead?

D.

He has simply repeated the tired old mantra, confusing two entirely different things. The media have a lot to answer for, helping to sustain this one.

[RWood]

The climate change update report seems to omit a proper assessment of recent temperature data. We are told the change from the 1990 mean temperature to the 2040 mean temperature is predicted to rise by 0.9C. But there is no mention of how much of that rise has occurred to date. I would be interested to see this info for NZ also Auckland.

Perhpas you'd better put your number on the record? Unfortunately, despite excellent health, I might struggle to be around for the assessment at the latter date.

[Nev]

The climate change update report seems to omit a proper assessment of recent temperature data. We are told the change from the 1990 mean temperature to the 2040 mean temperature is predicted to rise by 0.9C. But there is no mention of how much of that rise has occurred to date. I would be interested to see this info for NZ also Auckland.

I'm pretty sure data for the national 'seven-station' series can be found somewhere online.

However, by my calculations based on NIWA's MetService records for Akld Aero, the 1991 midpoint for its 1981-2000, 20-year average annual mean-temp was 15.41C. And although the rise in its average mean-temps for this century's first decade wasn't quite as dramatic as previous decades, over the last 5 years it averaged 15.62C, and 15.77C over the last 3 years. So one could say a rise in more recent years of about 0.21C to 0.36C since the 1991, 20-year average.

Below is a table of average 10 year annual mean-temps for Akld Aero…

(1961-1970) > 1965 … 14.88C
(1971-1980) > 1975 … 15.19C
(1981-1990) > 1985 … 15.34C
(1991-2000) > 1995 … 15.47C
(2001-2010) > 2005 … 15.54C

(Note: Proxied Mangere data used for any missing months)

[Bradley]

Yet if you look at Christchurch Airports average 10 year temps there is absolutely no indication of global warming, I would love a climate change supporter to explain how Christchurch could be exempt from such a world-wide phenomena? If anything the trend is that Christchurch is getting cooler!!

1954 - 1962 - 11.55C
1963 - 1972 - 11.63C
1973 - 1982 - 11.49C
1983 - 1992 - 11.76C
1993 - 2002 - 11.50C
2003 - 2012 - 11.51C