NZ Weather Forum

The forecasted temps for here in the Chch area have been very poor of late and well of the mark.

Yes, I have noticed that, but I don't think that, that is really important.

melja wrote:The forecasted temps for here in the Chch area have been very poor of late and well of the mark.

Agree..and its not just a few degrees out

A couple of thundery troughs will cross the country in the next few days. Friday sees thunderstorms along the South Island West Coast. You wouldn't count Canterbury out for Saturday afternoon depending on heating.
Another trough late Sunday brings thunderstorm potential to the west of the North Island. Hopefully that system will provide the chance of afternoon convection on Monday as well, depending on how quickly it moves. So plenty to keep an eye on.

Yes i was thinking Saturday for Canterbury as well,fingers crossed.

NZstorm wrote:Hopefully that system will provide the chance of afternoon convection on Monday as well, depending on how quickly it moves. So plenty to keep an eye on.

Monday looks the best bet for Waikato it seems at this stage with left over moisture and temps in around 18 to 20C in the afternoon.
Will have to see what the models pull up at a later date....

Can see a distant CB from here over the hunter hills at the back of Cave/Waimate. Looks good on the radar.

It does look quite busy, doesn't it. Will keep an eye on that.

Yeah, Distant Thunder here now. Looking very black to the SW.

Storm on the webcam here
http://www.getwirelessnz.com/west-cam.html

Thunder and lightning just to the south of here now, managed to get some lightning on Footage which is a first for me.

Observed some high white cauliflower clouds towering up to the east; cloud closing in now from east through south.

Unstable line to the south now. Much clearer seen from here because some of the trees have gone. or

Gif Image I made of previous webcam link I posted:

Southerly in Ashburton now.

Dramatic looking clouds from the south now with a little increase in wind.
Unstable 'ceiling', clouds I call them, showing instability.

Just had a few bigger than pea sized hail stones here, now just very dark clouds

Shower with large raindrops in St Albans now.

A little hail mixed within the shower here

That was a little unexpected, quite impressive dark turbulent skies with good strong development and a heavy shower with large rain drops.
Was this cold air aloft or a sneaky upper level trough?
Yeah Saturday looks like a potential day something to watch for

Just got that heavy shower here now along with a single flash of lightning

Went off to Hornby to do some shopping this evening.
Some glaciated clouds and a few heavy spits whilst driving home but nothing much.

Late report. We had a heavy thunderstorm in Oamaru for about 20 minutes starting at about 4.15pm . Gave us about 10mm of rain in 30 minutes ,Reports of heavy hail , continuous thunder and lightning and torrential rain at Duntroon around 4.30pm

That would have to have been the most unusual storm ive ever seen,i was outside as it was getting dark,i saw the wall of cloud coming but no way did it look like it was going to bring lightning,it just looked like low cloud.

That Canterbury storm yesterday developed off the approach of the polar jet stream which was lifting the air (PVA).
Tomorrows set up lacks a jet stream/surface heating but the upper air is colder.

Set up over the North Island still looks good late Sunday but you would have to say Monday is uncertain as the system is tracking east (away). Hopefully it will slow down in future model runs.