Deep Subtropical Low - Sept 24-26

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 22/09/2013 16:45

GFS bringing it a little closer than it had before:

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 22/09/2013 17:18

Maybe your turn for the "Big Blow" ?

Manukau heads obs · Sun 22/09/2013 19:34

looking nasty

one big key is that sea temperatures are at their seasonal lowest around NZ
so that is alot of a cooling of tropical air mass from the north..i.e lots rain and lots of deepening...so lots of wind..
could end up being worse than if it was a tropical cyclone

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 22/09/2013 22:34

Looking like some very moist air with surface dewpoints 17-18C(UKMET) coming onto Northland later Tuesday.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Mon 23/09/2013 07:46

Gutted I'm going to miss this event. Looks a doozy. Reminds me of a bomb low we had in winter or spring in about 2008 or. 09. It was just before the I got the weather station so didn't have wind recorded but it was the strongest winds I've ever had at home. Ill try find the topic and map.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 23/09/2013 07:57

there should be more news coverage of this than there is...I feel...

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Mon 23/09/2013 08:00

Manukau heads obs wrote:there should be more news coverage of this than this is...I feel...

Yes i think you are right,the way its developing so far is really impressive

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Mon 23/09/2013 08:06

Here is the forecast for the July 2008 bomb low. Very similar. Although I don't think this is forecast to have a pressure drop at a bomb low rate. Has anyone had a look to see if it is or not?

Sorry this is the best I can do. We were not very good at loading maps for future reference on that topic.

ImageUploadedByTapatalk1379880373.627793.jpg

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Mon 23/09/2013 09:28

Yes this event looks to good one....
Even my Davis weather station is picking up a bad forecast in 24 to 48 hours time.

If this event comes from the NE, I suspect that winds will be most strongest a little higher up from the Surface due to the orographic lift effect. Even still strong winds expected at the surface.

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 23/09/2013 10:22

Marine warning for gusts to up 70 knots (130km/h):

http://www.metservice.com/national/warn ... e-warnings

Auckland VHF

STORM WARNING A53 FOR HAURAKI GULF, THE AREA FROM BREAM HEAD TO CAPE COLVILLE : Southeast rising to 35 knots gusting 50 knots Tuesday morning, to 50 knots gusting 70 knots Tuesday afternoon, then easing to easterly 30 knots gusting 45 knots Tuesday evening. GALE WARNING A53 FOR MANUKAU HARBOUR, WAITEMATA HARBOUR : Southeast rising to 25 knots gusting 40 knots Tuesday morning, to 40 knots gusting 60 knots Tuesday afternoon, then easing to easterly 25 knots gusting 40 knots Tuesday evening.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 23/09/2013 11:04

the media really needs to be on top of this more....as this is all happening quickly...i.e not much time to prepare...

I am pleased I gave the teacher of our school camp a heads up...

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 23/09/2013 11:22

I agree Brian - the media seem too obsessed with the America's cup racing at the moment to even notice the incoming storm!

A number of weather warnings and watches have now been issued for this event.

harleyb · Unread post by **harleyb** » Mon 23/09/2013 13:42

Latest marine forecast for Stephens marine area looks promising for a good blast...

Issued by MetService at: 1:09pm Monday 23 Sep 2013
Valid to: Midnight Tuesday 24 Sep 2013
Forecast

*** STORM WARNING IN FORCE ***
Northwest 20 knots but southwest 15 knots west of Cape Farewell to Cape Egmont, easing to variable 10 knots everywhere tonight.Southeast 20 knots developing overnight, rising to 40 knots Tuesday morning, to 50 knots Tuesday afternoon and to 65 knots Tuesday night. Sea becoming very high. Southeast swell 4 metres developing. Southwest swell in the west, 2 metres easing. Poor visibility in rain developing Tuesday afternoon.

joecam · Unread post by **joecam** » Mon 23/09/2013 14:48

The media sure are obsessed with the US Cup....Unfortunately. A colleague in AKL is trying to say its an adverse event but its falling on "semi" deaf news producers ears because it does not relate to boat racing.

Chris Raine · Unread post by **Chris Raine** » Mon 23/09/2013 15:12

Media will turn if damage reports start coming in maybe

CWUweather · Unread post by **CWUweather** » Mon 23/09/2013 17:50

Showing up top on the radar already, little bit earlier than expected?

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Mon 23/09/2013 18:17

Gave my Silverdale Spy a good 48 hours' notice of event to come.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 23/09/2013 18:56

Orion wrote:Gave my Silverdale Spy a good 48 hours' notice of event to come.

Quite high and exposed to the E/SE there Orion.

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Mon 23/09/2013 19:13

NZstorm wrote:
Quite high and exposed to the E/SE there Orion.

Exactly. Trees about the place too.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Mon 23/09/2013 19:52

SE also goes against the grain of trees. Westerly winds is how the trees have grown. So easily damaged in SE winds.

Wishing the northland radar was operational for this. Can't be too far away.

ben g · Unread post by **ben g** » Mon 23/09/2013 21:31

Metservice msl charts show 20 hpa drop in 24 hours. Not bad. Almost a weather b...

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Mon 23/09/2013 21:37

Orion wrote:Gave my Silverdale Spy a good 48 hours' notice of event to come.

You certainly have a vast network spies there Orion

CWUweather · Unread post by **CWUweather** » Mon 23/09/2013 21:43

This is looking pretty intense for the Kaikoura coast too. Not until Wednesday morning, but they could get pretty heavy downpours all day. I know its not much to go by, but has anyone seen the 48 hour forecast for Kaikoura on MetService? Up to rates of 18.9mm per hour

Manukau heads obs · Mon 23/09/2013 22:01

the W or SW wind on the top side might be just as damaging too as the low tracks SE over the Waikato ...or so..

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Mon 23/09/2013 22:10

Dunno if many have seen this but talked about it with Brian and Foggy. Jetstream has a massive kink in it which I think has helped deepen this low very quickly just on the east of the apex of the kink. Just doesn't look like your normal subtropical storm.

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