General October Weather

[ben g]

Line of showers on the radar lining up Auckland from the west. no rain yet but it will soon cause I've just mixed up paint for boat:p nothing of note showing on mslp charts, small trough?

[Manukau heads obs]

I suspect its from an old CB...it will be mainly spotty rain from a high cloud base

[David]

Been nice having lighter winds for a change today, was getting a bit sick of the wind Light NE most of the day but a WNW change at 3pm. Cloudy with a few spots of rain here and there, max temp 19C.

[Manukau heads obs]

gusting to 53 kts here ,i.e 100kmh
and increasing

[David]

That sure is a huge difference in conditions Brian.
I'm hoping for some decent rain tomorrow, the garden could sure use it

[ben g]

Turned out to be quite a nice night here, no rain, light nw breeze, "grave yard" sky:)

ImageUploadedByTapatalk1381728827.490257.jpg

[mikestormchaser]

Thanks Nev.

Looks like another hail set up over the South island tomorrow but not as severe as Sunday.
The upper trough crosses the North Island but is uneventful.

500mb chart for Tuesday 1pm

looks good there nzstorm. i was thinking of taking time off work to chase storms if they accour, what time roughly would you think the trough would arrive in Canterbury? i know if we dont have alot of cloud cover to enhance suface heating we could get pre trough storms..

[spwill]

I'm hoping for some decent rain tomorrow, the garden could sure use it

Yes, Greylynn showing 22mm so far for October and a drying wind last 3 or 4 days.

After this next rain system moves through the weather looks a bit more settled in the short term.

[NZstorm]

looks good there nzstorm. i was thinking of taking time off work to chase storms if they accour, what time roughly would you think the trough would arrive in Canterbury? i know if we dont have alot of cloud cover to enhance suface heating we could get pre trough storms..

GFS is usually good on the day for placing storm activity and it has it over eastern North Otago this afternoon spreading into coastal Canterbury this evening. The set up is not comparable to Sundays as there was more moisture on Sunday with better convergence and the set up was more over the plains. Cb tops quite low today but should still be good for some lightning given 500mb -32C. A short wave will come in during the afternoon to trigger the convection.

[David]

What happened to the front! Not even enough rain to register in the rain gauge. Pretty unfortunate given that there looks to be a drier weather pattern moving in... and only 20mm MTD

[spwill]

You do wonder if we are in for a dry October, very blustery conditions here currently. I see Greylynn showing 21C, dewpoint 17C.

[ricky]

Very windy in Grey lynn alright! Seen 76 km/hr gusts and currently 59 km/hr average.

[Manukau heads obs]

61 kt/111kmh gusts here
similar in outer hauraki gulf...way more than marine forecast of gusts to 40kts

[David]

Very windy in Grey lynn alright! Seen 76 km/hr gusts and currently 59 km/hr average.

Wow! My station is only showing gusts up to 41 km/h

[David]

Very windy in Grey lynn alright! Seen 76 km/hr gusts and currently 59 km/hr average.

Wow! My station is only showing gusts up to 41 km/h

71 km/h now My highest this year.

[Manukau heads obs]

71 km/h now My highest this year.

I think M/S have been caught out how vicious this low has turned out to be for upper NI
I coud see it all unfolding via the sea state to my west a a couple of hours ago now

[cbm]

Big gust and brief squall of very heavy rain just came through Hamilton central city. Another one now. Associated with the red blobs on the radar I presume.

[03Stormchaser]

Good Cu poping up now around chch

[Chris Raine]

We have some Cb's around Oamaru , hearing spherics on the radio

[Orion]

*puts car under cover again to be on the safe side*

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Cu cloud forms forming from early this afternoon from a fine start to the day, with light winds.
Cu forms not really getting anywhere, with some glaciating and weakening away.
However, the NE remaining persistent and still is.
Looks like some development now to the TC direction, south to there.

[spwill]

I see Isolated thunder showers showing up over North Otago, Oamaru currently on a rather chilly 6C.



Brief gales here late morning, winds dropping through the afternoon and cooler with a couple of light showers

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Not looking promising here now.
Mind you we have had 3 thunderstorms in 4 days which is something unusual for here

[Orion]

Lightning-static on radio becoming frequent.
The advancing dark-grey rain-cloud has an interesting yellowish cast to its lower edge.
9.5 degrees.

[melja]

3.9C in Oamaru with rain