General October Weather

[jamie]

No wonder I was sweating milking the cows tonight. Got to basically 23 today. That's our warmest day in a long time. Got to 22.6 today and the record for my weather station is 22.7 which was on the 30th last October. Today is only the 5th. Carrying on the September trend of having very high day time max temps for this region.

[spwill]

No wonder I was sweating milking the cows tonight. Got to basically 23 today. .

The dewpoint temperature was around 15C for Auckland today, probably the same for Waikato, makes the day feel warmer than the temperature suggests.

Maximum for Auckland was around 20C, morning cloud then a fine afternoon but some central parts stayed cloudy with weak seabreeze convergence

[NZstorm]

Another nice spring day, already on 18C.

Keeping an eye on Tuesdays low in the models. Looks like good moisture being pulled down by the deepening low with a possible thunder/tornado risk for the upper North Island. There is variation in the models.

[Tornado Tim]

Yes looking good on Tuesday isn't it, forecasted highs are around the 17-20*C mark in the upper north island but it seems there is a front that crosses in the afternoon, so we will have to see if prime DTSH will be achieved before it hits.
Another few rounds of GFS should help firm this up.

[Razor]

Just nudging 24 degrees here, and rising it seems. Glorious day, I'm going to call it 'summer' today

Edit make that 25, and rising

[snowstormwatcher]

Thick high cloud keeping a lid on the temperature here with only 14c currently.

[moylanr]

Paroa has 13C, light breezy drizzle now (&a pool table while waiting for dryness at Shantytown), Dillmans had lots of rain and Jacksons was dry but low cloud this morning. Could be good waves at Punakaiki tomorrow...

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

In ashburton today. Hot there this morning before high cloud developed. I see got to just under 27 here at home today!

[Richard]

Not as warm as that here but still a lovely day on 22deg,the last five days have been over 22deg

[Tornado Tim]

Nice day here today with scattered cumulus and some altocumulus. High of 20.9*C. Looking forward to Tuesday which is looking favourable for storms.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Warm day here, drying out the grass, which was good for extra mowing over the top of it, to help scatter the clippings. Previous moving has been rather 'clogged' due to the dampness of the grass.
Just under 25C, it got to, with light NW winds and sunny skies B4 the high cloud moving in later this afternoon from the westerly direction.

[tich]

Just back from Dunedin. Went down on Saturday for a function at Larnarch Castle Sat night, where it was very misty/foggy (giving the place a spooky vibe) Quite alot of fog also just north of the city (up to about Waikouaiti) this afternoon.

[jamie]

Yes looking good on Tuesday isn't it, forecasted highs are around the 17-20*C mark in the upper north island but it seems there is a front that crosses in the afternoon, so we will have to see if prime DTSH will be achieved before it hits.
Another few rounds of GFS should help firm this up.

MS outlook for tomorrow looks promising

[jamie]

Ive just been looking at the GFS. I cant tell if its worth knocking off at midday tomorrow for the reason that I cant tell if there are going to be isolated storms or if they will be imbedded in the main frontal band.

Can anyone help to explain how to tell in the models if it will be isolated or embedded storms?

[Tornado Tim]

It looks like its embedded unfortunately, most frontal storms are embedded especially if the front is mature. Emerging fronts that develop the first lot of storms are typically isolated but on a line.

[spwill]

Isolated thunderstorms in a forecast means only a small area is expected to be affected by thunderstorms if storms do occur eg. one or two occurrences over a wide area.

Will keep a watch on the front tomorrow for any chase possibilities.

Frontal activity/trough later Friday into Sat is worth watching at this stage

[Tornado Tim]

Isolated thunderstorms in a forecast means only a small area is expected to be affected by thunderstorms if storms do occur eg. one or two occurrences over a wide area.

I don't take it like that exactly……..

Mainly because you can have numerous (> 3) isolated thunderstorms in one area at a time.

[spwill]

Isolated thunderstorms in a forecast means only a small area is expected to be affected by thunderstorms if storms do occur eg. one or two occurrences over a wide area.

I don't take it like that exactly……..

Mainly because you can have numerous (> 3) isolated thunderstorms in one area at a time.

Forecasts are generally given for regions rather than small localised areas, usually thunderstorm forecasting is not so good as to pick out an exact location for development/occurrence.

[Tornado Tim]

I see some isolated storms have been occurring in the southern half of north island.
Specifically over the Gisborne Ranges and just south of Ruapahu.

[moylanr]

Hope there's lots less rain on the coast next week. I expect to hire a Jucy campervan & take the boys over Arthurs Pass tomorrow. In true Jucy style, no accomodation is booked, but the planner in me is thinking about Punakaiki/Lake Rochfort/Denniston or Stockton/Lyell/Reefton/Marble Point.

I have a coat for Monday...and your forecasts confirm by expectation to be home by Wed night.

Unfortunately when I slid the door shut Sun night I only went to first latch rather than 'slamming' fully closed so as not to disturb Mr11. Punakaiki water fall sneaked into my bed with the brief torrential downpour at 5:45am.
Impressive show from blowholes
Didn't expect to stay in Reefton or Murchison tonight but we might do now- whichevers driest without being too cold...

[einzack]

it's pretty wet and cold in Reefton right now. not sure Murch will be much better tho.

[moylanr]

it's pretty wet and cold in Reefton right now. not sure Murch will be much better tho.

Westport BP tell me Arthur's is now closed. Wet & windy as coming back from
Denniston plateau. Guessing I won't need to book in for a powered site in Reefton...ie not much competition these school hols.

[moylanr]

it's pretty wet and cold in Reefton right now. not sure Murch will be much better tho.

Need to be back in Christchurch Wed night so now enjoying your cold but not raining camp ground. Did have to dodge puddles to get to power point suggesting we've arrived for the best part of the day...

[einzack]

it's pretty wet and cold in Reefton right now. not sure Murch will be much better tho.

Westport BP tell me Arthur's is now closed. Wet & windy as coming back from
Denniston plateau. Guessing I won't need to book in for a powered site in Reefton...ie not much competition these school hols.

aaroadwatch still has it open but with restrictions to no towing vehicles.
lewis still open - i'm also heading to chch tomorrow so hoping for no issues in the morning.

as for the weather, yeah, it's not that great.

[Tornado Tim]

Interesting situation brewing in the models, looks like a very disturbed SW to Westerly flow for the end of the week coming due to a Low pressure through developing in the central Tasman.
Storms looking quite a possibility on Saturday but then again, still to far out.

Interesting to note that its pulling in very cold upper air, despite forecasts showing its a westerly born system....