Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

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Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by CWUweather »

Models been in agreement for some time now. Cold temperatures, heavy rain and snow above 500-600m. Canterbury looking to be hit hardest... what are your thoughts?
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by Razor »

The amount of rain in the system for the central south island and the time it hangs around looks to be a worry, and a follow up event on the cards later in the week
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by CWUweather »

Razor wrote:The amount of rain in the system for the central south island and the time it hangs around looks to be a worry, and a follow up event on the cards later in the week
Especially if significant moisture that is showing falls as snow above 400-500m, could be a significant risk for farmers and livestock!
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by Richard »

And then a rapid snow melt a day after with the arrival of the NW wind flow,at least it may not be followed by frost
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by CWUweather »

What are your thoughts on a warm advection event occurring, very very hard to pick. But it is possible!
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

According to Karen's forecast on the TV this evening, the event seems to be shorter that was earlier forecasted, so it shouldn't be all that significant, despite the earlier predictions, now with NW flow developing on the back of it. <3'
By the way, off topic... What the hell was Karen wearing this evening? Looked like a dress, with bits attached which was thrown out from the recently held Wearable Arts show 8-o :lol:
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Should be lots of snow in the mountains to give the ski-fields a later closing season this year, with this system.
A wet day coming up tomorrow with a possible 44.6mm from this event for Christchurch. :>
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

CWUweather wrote:What are your thoughts on a warm advection event occurring, very very hard to pick. But it is possible!

Yes, it is.
...but quite short-lived. :-k
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by Richard »

Short-lived to me is a few hours of rain,this is looking about a 36 hour event which i would not define as short-lived.

Good steady heavy drizzle outside at the moment
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Well, a long "short-lived" event then, if that makes sense??? :rolleyes:
Despite the southerly this evening, rain, this evening, coming in from the NW, according to the RRR. :yum:
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by melja »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Should be lots of snow in the mountains to give the ski-fields a later closing season this year, with this system.
A wet day coming up tomorrow with a possible 44.6mm from this event for Christchurch. :>
They are all closed for the season apart from Mt Hutt and they close sunday, most of the snow is long gone _b
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

I see Hutt has 10cm overnight. Getting snow this late in the season doesnt help alot, once it stops snowing it melts very quickly
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by moylanr »

Especially if significant moisture that is showing falls as snow above 400-500m, could be a significant risk for farmers and livestock!
& for Jucy camper van without chains? Currently 13C in Westport, rain started ~1/2 hr ago, birds chirping happily in township motor camp. I don't remember seeing snow in the weather watch on Fri. Will it be risky over Arthur's midday Wed, better to go Lewis (bored with that route) or do we need to get across later today? :-k
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by melja »

Its not risky because if they think its unsafe for you they wont let you through, this time of year its only affected for a few hours.
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by moylanr »

melja wrote:Its not risky because if they think its unsafe for you they wont let you through, this time of year its only affected for a few hours.
Thanks melja _b .

Another risk is not having the van back when due 5 pm...
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by spwill »

melja wrote:Its not risky because if they think its unsafe for you they wont let you through, .
They will let you through if you have chains, otherwise there is always the Haast Pass :> the Lewis will likely become snow affected
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by Richard »

The radar's not picking up much of the rainfall any further north than Amberley this morning,steady moderate rain falling here ATM. 16mm so far
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by Orion »

5.8 degrees in Ashburton at present with light rain.
My Methven Spy reports "sleetish stuff melting on the windscreen" up there.
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by Orion »

moylanr wrote:
melja wrote:Its not risky because if they think its unsafe for you they wont let you through, this time of year its only affected for a few hours.
Thanks melja _b .

Another risk is not having the van back when due 5 pm...
I wonder whether road closures due to weather etc are covered as a "force majeur" in your hire-contract, so that you would not be penalised?
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by Richard »

Rain becoming heavy here now in the last 10 mins
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by TonyT »

27mm here so far, probably about half of what we will get.
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by Razor »

Arthurs Pass reprorts heavy snow to all levels. Chain essential, i would expect closure later. Clearing tomorrow. Check softrock.co.nz for webcam etc
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by Richard »

Up to 34mm now
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by CWUweather »

Getting reports on my page of snow in Darfiel, Coalgate and Sheffield!
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Re: Winters last blast? 7th - 9th October

Unread post by Richard »

Not surprised,noticed a bit of sleet on the windscreen half hour ago
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