NZ Weather Forum

Models been in agreement for some time now. Cold temperatures, heavy rain and snow above 500-600m. Canterbury looking to be hit hardest... what are your thoughts?

The amount of rain in the system for the central south island and the time it hangs around looks to be a worry, and a follow up event on the cards later in the week

Razor wrote:The amount of rain in the system for the central south island and the time it hangs around looks to be a worry, and a follow up event on the cards later in the week

Especially if significant moisture that is showing falls as snow above 400-500m, could be a significant risk for farmers and livestock!

And then a rapid snow melt a day after with the arrival of the NW wind flow,at least it may not be followed by frost

What are your thoughts on a warm advection event occurring, very very hard to pick. But it is possible!

According to Karen's forecast on the TV this evening, the event seems to be shorter that was earlier forecasted, so it shouldn't be all that significant, despite the earlier predictions, now with NW flow developing on the back of it. '
By the way, off topic... What the hell was Karen wearing this evening? Looked like a dress, with bits attached which was thrown out from the recently held Wearable Arts show

Should be lots of snow in the mountains to give the ski-fields a later closing season this year, with this system.
A wet day coming up tomorrow with a possible 44.6mm from this event for Christchurch.

CWUweather wrote:What are your thoughts on a warm advection event occurring, very very hard to pick. But it is possible!

Yes, it is.
...but quite short-lived.

Short-lived to me is a few hours of rain,this is looking about a 36 hour event which i would not define as short-lived.

Good steady heavy drizzle outside at the moment

Well, a long "short-lived" event then, if that makes sense???
Despite the southerly this evening, rain, this evening, coming in from the NW, according to the RRR.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Should be lots of snow in the mountains to give the ski-fields a later closing season this year, with this system.
A wet day coming up tomorrow with a possible 44.6mm from this event for Christchurch.

They are all closed for the season apart from Mt Hutt and they close sunday, most of the snow is long gone

I see Hutt has 10cm overnight. Getting snow this late in the season doesnt help alot, once it stops snowing it melts very quickly

Especially if significant moisture that is showing falls as snow above 400-500m, could be a significant risk for farmers and livestock!

& for Jucy camper van without chains? Currently 13C in Westport, rain started ~1/2 hr ago, birds chirping happily in township motor camp. I don't remember seeing snow in the weather watch on Fri. Will it be risky over Arthur's midday Wed, better to go Lewis (bored with that route) or do we need to get across later today?

Its not risky because if they think its unsafe for you they wont let you through, this time of year its only affected for a few hours.

melja wrote:Its not risky because if they think its unsafe for you they wont let you through, this time of year its only affected for a few hours.

Thanks melja .

Another risk is not having the van back when due 5 pm...

melja wrote:Its not risky because if they think its unsafe for you they wont let you through, .

They will let you through if you have chains, otherwise there is always the Haast Pass the Lewis will likely become snow affected

The radar's not picking up much of the rainfall any further north than Amberley this morning,steady moderate rain falling here ATM. 16mm so far

5.8 degrees in Ashburton at present with light rain.
My Methven Spy reports "sleetish stuff melting on the windscreen" up there.

moylanr wrote:

melja wrote:Its not risky because if they think its unsafe for you they wont let you through, this time of year its only affected for a few hours.

Thanks melja .

Another risk is not having the van back when due 5 pm...

I wonder whether road closures due to weather etc are covered as a "force majeur" in your hire-contract, so that you would not be penalised?

Rain becoming heavy here now in the last 10 mins

27mm here so far, probably about half of what we will get.

Arthurs Pass reprorts heavy snow to all levels. Chain essential, i would expect closure later. Clearing tomorrow. Check softrock.co.nz for webcam etc

Up to 34mm now

Getting reports on my page of snow in Darfiel, Coalgate and Sheffield!

Not surprised,noticed a bit of sleet on the windscreen half hour ago