NZ Weather Forum

http://www.metservice.com/warnings/seve ... rm-outlook

Valid to: Midnight Tuesday 8 Oct 2013
Issued at: 11:12am Monday 7 Oct 2013

A low over the Tasman Sea is expected to approach New Zealand during Tuesday. A front associated with the low is forecast to move across the North Island in the afternoon and evening. This front is expected to bring a period of active thunderstorms to northern New Zealand, moving across northern Northland during the afternoon, southern Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato, Waitomo, Taranaki in the afternoon and evening, and then move into the Bay of Plenty, Taupo and the central North Island in the evening.

For Northland, Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula, the risk of thunderstorms occuring is high, while Bay of Plenty, Waikato, Waitomo, Taumarunui and Taranaki the risk is moderate. These thunderstorms have the potential to produce heavy localised rain of 10-25mm/hr, strong winds gusting 90-110 km/h and possible small tornadoes. Additionally, for Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty there is a low risk the thunderstorms could become SEVERE, producing down bursts with damaging winds gusting greater than 110 km/h and small tornadoes. For Taupo and Tongariro National Park the risk of thunderstorms in the evening is considered low. While for the Ruahine and Tararua ranges there is also a low risk of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

Over the South Island, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening about northwest Nelson which could produce heavy rain and squally wind gusts, and a low risk in the evening in the remainder of Nelson and about the Marlborough Sounds.

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected over southern New Zealand.

Metservice wrote:Issued at: 8:32pm Monday 7 Oct 2013

A deep low over the Tasman Sea is expected to approach New Zealand during Tuesday. An associated front is forecast to move across the North Island during the afternoon and evening. There is a moderate to high risk of thunderstorms for western areas from Northland and Auckland to Taranaki during the afternoon and early evening, then spreading into Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty in the evening. These thunderstorms may produce localised heavy rain and strong wind gusts of 90 to 110 km/h. In addition, there is a low risk of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS with this front from Northland across to Bay of Plenty, with the possibility of damaging wind gusts in excess of 110 km/h, and a few small coastal tornadoes.

There is a low risk of thunderstorms for the inland Wairarapa and the Tararua and Ruahine ranges during the afternoon and early evening. For Taupo and Tongariro National Park the risk of thunderstorms in the evening is considered low.


Over the South Island, there is a low risk of a few thunderstorms as the front moves onto northwest Nelson and the Marlborough Sounds.

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected over the remainder of New Zealand.

Manukau heads obs wrote: anyone chasing?
I could meet at bombay...

jamie wrote: I would have thought you guys in Auckland would want to head north west? Bit different for you Brian.
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spwill wrote:For storm chasing the chase country/roading is much better over South Auckland/Waikato and you have the option to go east with a system into Coromadel/BOP.

jamie wrote:What are the chances of things developing ahead of the front? Some tcu out there at the moment.