Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by NZstorm »

I may chase that trough this afternoon as dewpoints will be 10C and there will be some speed shear. There is the outside chance of a storm getting a bit active.
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Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by jamie »

Yea but how will u keep up with it? They are moving so fast. I'm just going to stay put today and watch them go by.
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

that NWer yesterday was interesting in that inland got strong winds...
often its only strong on the west coast....but thats usually associated with a pressure wind....i.e up against relatively stable airmass hugging the land, associated with a ridge of high pressure...but this time there was no ridge and there was more shallow instability rather than just upper level instability?
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by Nev »

Pretty much the entire country has some risk in this morn's T-Storm update...
MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Saturday 12 Oct 2013
Issued at: 8:42am Saturday 12 Oct 2013

A very unstable southwesterly flow is expected to affect the country, easing this evening as a ridge approaches from the west. A trough embedded in the strong southwesterlies is expected to move east across the country this afternoon and evening.

From the south of Northland through Auckland and the west of Coromandel to Taranaki and Taumarunui there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms this afternoon with heavy rain, strong wind gusts,90 to 110 km/h and hail. There is also a low risk of damaging wind gusts.

From Wanganui south through Manawatu to Kapiti there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms this afternoon with heavy rain, strong wind gusts 90 to 100 km/h and hail.

In Buller and Westland there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms this afternoon with strong wind gusts, 90 km/h and hail.

From north Otago through Canterbury there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms this afternoon with hail.

In the south of Wairarapa and north along the Wairarapa coast there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with strong wind gusts and small hail.

There is a low risk of thunderstorms for the remainder of New Zealand apart from the south of Fiordland as indicated on the map.
MetService T-Storm Map - Is Oct 12, 8.42am.png
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by jamie »

got a thunderstorm about to roll in here. Hearing rumbles
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

ohh, yup,that looks like a good one :)
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by jamie »

looks good that there is a bit of clearance from now until this afternoon when that trough arrives
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Great set up today I feel in my books warrants our first high risk for the season, all ingrediants are there onshore fresh winds heating with clear crisp sky this morning and the jet stream plus upper air is -30C excellent :smile: .
Well worth the chase and I agree decent size hail with initial slow moving storms this afternoon maybe 15-20mm, not small hail like MS are saying.

Last night a weak storm snuck up on the front with purple/red on the radars quite sharply around midnight to 1am, some brief strikes were picked up near Ashburton.

Edit: Update now from MS had to have a wee snigger quoted from the thunder outlook..
From north Otago through Canterbury there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms this afternoon with medium sized hail.

Medium sized hail want fries with that?? :lol:
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Yes, Jason, I too had a wee sniggle at that. :lol:
Sounded like a forecast been dished out from a fish and chip shop :mrgreen: :crazy:
Hope the hail is not that big as I don't want more damage to the spring growth, trees, flowers etc. [-X
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by Richard »

you can have the medium sized hail down your way Jason,i'll just settle for some small thanks.

Must say the clouds are building nicely ATM,the SW wind had died so looking promising i reckon. :D
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Looking good for a chase this afternoon with stormstruck and will meet up with 03stormchaser later aswel, beautiful day atm, clear skies, a little bit of CU around, hardly any wind, perfect ahead of the trough coming up this arvo!
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

A nice 70k squall came through just a few min ago, nice :)
However the temperature here is far too cold for that trough to ignite over land, we just keep on getting cold outflow and not much sun.......

Hopefully it will change, but I am not sure......
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

In mid canterbury. Couple nice bases toward the alps.no lightning yet
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Looking toward Mt Somers
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by Orion »

Acting on information received [thankyou], I've put the car under cover for the first time in years.
It's getting very dark here.
16.3 degrees.
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by Nev »

I see MS this arvo have upgraded the risk of 'SEVERE thunderstorms' for the south of Northland to Taranaki area from low to moderate. General increase in hail size potential too.
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by jamie »

ssome nasty looking stuff on our door step at the moment.
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by Orion »

Thunder here now. Posting from phone for the future!
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by snowstormwatcher »

Thunder and lightning here now, looks pretty dark over the hills.
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by Orion »

Light rain, repeated peals of thunder.
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by jamie »

Looks good inland from Timaru
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by snowstormwatcher »

Heavy rain and hail here now along with a near gale Southerly.
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by Orion »

Ten seconds between lightning and thunder. Seems to be to my NW or NNW now.
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by snowstormwatcher »

Moved though here now. best Thunderstorm Ive seen in awhile though, Almost constant overhead lightning and thunder with 9mm of rain in 10mins.
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Looks like you guys down south have 2 or 3 cells to go after, have fun :)
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