Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

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Tornado Tim
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Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Time for a new Thread :)

Thunderstorm outlook for October 11 (Afternoon/Evening):
Metservice wrote: Issued at: 8:33pm Thursday 10 Oct 2013

Forecast amended 8:30pm Thursday and minor changes made to moderate risk area over North Island (now including coastal Waikato but not all of the Coromandel Peninsula).

The trough should move slowly across Fiordland and south Westland during the afternoon and early evening, with a low risk of a few thunderstorms. An associated southwest change is forecast to move through Southland and south Otago/Dunedin during this time. The combination of afternoon heating, cold temperatures in the upper atmosphere and surface convergence leads to a low risk of thunderstorms in this area.

An active front is forecast to move out of the north Tasman Sea tomorrow and across the upper half of the North Island at night. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms over Northland, Auckland, coastal Waikato and northwest Coromandel Peninsula in the evening. These thunderstorms may produce localised heavy rain,and strong wind gusts of 90 to 110 km/h. In addition there is a low risk of these thunderstorms becoming SEVERE with damaging gusts in excess of 110 km/h and the possibility of small tornadoes. A lesser risk of thunderstorms extends further south to Taranaki and east to Bay of Plenty.

No thunderstorms are expected over the rest of the country.
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Re: Thunderstorms, North Island 11,12th October

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

should read, possibility of micro bursts, instead?
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Re: Thunderstorms, North Island 11,12th October

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

It almost does now,Localised Wind Squalls
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Re: Thunderstorms, North Island 11,12th October

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

ah, yes, in reference to
http://metservice.com/warnings/severe-t ... torm-watch

thats actually OK as they will be squally type thunderstorms :)
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Re: Thunderstorms, North Island 11,12th October

Unread post by NZstorm »

The midnight models were not looking so good as previous runs on tonights front. Still looks gusty anyway.
And still worth watching this set up to see whether instability can occur.
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Re: Thunderstorms, North Island 11,12th October

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yeah , the latest marine forecast has not changed upwards
in the past wave depressions like this have caused serious damage in this area
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Re: Thunderstorms, North Island 11,12th October

Unread post by jamie »

what are you expecting to get in the next 24-48 hours brian? in terms of wind gusts. If the weather is atrocious tomorrow morning i might go for a drive up the heads.
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Re: Thunderstorms, North Island 11,12th October

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

jamie wrote:what are you expecting to get in the next 24-48 hours brian? in terms of wind gusts. If the weather is atrocious tomorrow morning i might go for a drive up the heads.
Id be tempted to go up too if it's really blowing....... :)

The warm frontal cloud doesn't really want to go away atm, completely overcast and dull..
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Re: Thunderstorms, North Island 11,12th October

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

cool on a weather meet at the signal station tomorrow morning :)
there is now an anenometer there...that I donated...a 'Maximum gauge'
i.e analog dial one...like the one I damaged, LOL
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Re: Thunderstorms, North Island 11,12th October

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Manukau heads obs wrote: i.e analog dial one...like the one I damaged, LOL
I still feel for you about that day, LOL

I was surprised how you reacted, I would have been more visibly pissed off!

The Storm risk goes up for the Waikato region tomorrow as the flow turns WSW to West. The distrurbed westerly flow will be in full swing! :D

Brian you are in a ideal place for these types of setups, It must be so cool to see distant storms over the Tasman flickering away at night.

Anyway T-storm outlook for Tomorrow PM:
Metservice wrote: ssued at: 10:22am Friday 11 Oct 2013

Unstable west to southwesterlies persist over New Zealand during the afternoon and early evening, along with very cold temperatures in the upper atmosphere. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms from Auckland to Wanganui during the afternoon. These thunderstorms may produce localised heavy rain, small hail and strong wind gusts. In addition, there is a low risk of these thunderstorms becoming SEVERE and producing damaging wind gusts in excess of 110 km/h. There is a lesser risk of thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening from Northland to northern Manawatu, also Bay of Plenty. Afternoon convergence zones are expected to set up in Wellington, south and coastal Wairarapa, and Hawkes Bay and Gisborne north of about Wairoa. In these areas, scattered heavy showers and small hail are possible along with a low risk of thunderstorms.

Heavy showers should quickly ease over Westland and Buller into the afternoon,but there is a low risk of a few thunderstorms there at first.

Afternoon convergences are likely to form over Southland, eastern Otago, the Canterbury coast and Plains, and eastern Marlborough. In these areas there is a low risk of thunderstorms through to early evening, however the risk is considered moderate in eastern Otago during the afternoon. These thunderstorms may produce localised heavy rain and small hail.

No thunderstorms expected over the remainder of New Zealand.
Interesting to see the Moderate risk for Otago, I best broaden the scope for the potential event down south if any our southern friends want to chase etc....
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Will be busy chase weekend. Sat tstorm and monday wind!
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

so the threat of tornadoes has been dropped I see
edit,ops, my bad, was looking at tomorrows thunderstorm outlook


yes, tomorrow could be a good day for squally CB's :)
Last edited by Manukau heads obs on Fri 11/10/2013 12:41, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by spwill »

I have a busy weekend on so no chasing for me.
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

I see some CB's are starting to fire ahead of the front...which is building into the tasman like a giant wave :)
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by NZstorm »

Manukau heads obs wrote:I see some CB's are starting to fire ahead of the front...which is building into the tasman like a giant wave :)
Lightning starting to show up now, great early sign!
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yes, and more and more along the frontal line :)
NW wind slowly increasing here

midnight ETA going on my reckoning
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by Richard »

Looks to be a decent sized storm west of Dunedin,not often you see red within this blind spot area of the radar system
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Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by jamie »

I'm still a NNW here. Got that humid drizzle back again now.

The jet stream is really getting these storms to fire. The colored infrared sat image shows they anvils are being displaced a long way. Some strong winds aloft.

Brian you'll have a great light show tonight as it approaches late tonight.
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

jamie wrote:
Brian you'll have a great light show tonight as it approaches late tonight.
Yes he will!, I would constantly stare from the West.....
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by jamie »

I see you have already topped the 50 knot gust mark Brian. That's a very good sign.
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yup, wind really ramping up now here, real gusty too
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by NZstorm »

500mb flow through those storms is 85knots. The jet stream is nicely placed to get the convection firing.
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

so thats the first (with the better chances of lightning activity) front showing on the rain radar I assume..
so the question is, is it going to develop more, west of me here, or is it only the far north thats going to get clipped by a few CB's?
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

well,...it is looking better on the rain radar now...so might start firing up soon :)
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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South

Unread post by ben g »

You know you have a problem when you are going to a party and not drinking, just so you can waste time till the front arrives with out falling asleep.
Last edited by ben g on Fri 11/10/2013 21:14, edited 2 times in total.
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