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Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 07:52
by NZstorm
I may chase that trough this afternoon as dewpoints will be 10C and there will be some speed shear. There is the outside chance of a storm getting a bit active.
Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 08:03
by jamie
Yea but how will u keep up with it? They are moving so fast. I'm just going to stay put today and watch them go by.
Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 08:40
by Manukau heads obs
that NWer yesterday was interesting in that inland got strong winds...
often its only strong on the west coast....but thats usually associated with a pressure wind....i.e up against relatively stable airmass hugging the land, associated with a ridge of high pressure...but this time there was no ridge and there was more shallow instability rather than just upper level instability?
Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 09:01
by Nev
Pretty much the entire country has some risk in this morn's T-Storm update...
MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Valid to: Midnight Saturday 12 Oct 2013
Issued at: 8:42am Saturday 12 Oct 2013
A very unstable southwesterly flow is expected to affect the country, easing this evening as a ridge approaches from the west. A trough embedded in the strong southwesterlies is expected to move east across the country this afternoon and evening.
From the south of Northland through Auckland and the west of Coromandel to Taranaki and Taumarunui there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms this afternoon with heavy rain, strong wind gusts,90 to 110 km/h and hail. There is also a low risk of damaging wind gusts.
From Wanganui south through Manawatu to Kapiti there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms this afternoon with heavy rain, strong wind gusts 90 to 100 km/h and hail.
In Buller and Westland there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms this afternoon with strong wind gusts, 90 km/h and hail.
From north Otago through Canterbury there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms this afternoon with hail.
In the south of Wairarapa and north along the Wairarapa coast there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with strong wind gusts and small hail.
There is a low risk of thunderstorms for the remainder of New Zealand apart from the south of Fiordland as indicated on the map.
MetService T-Storm Map - Is Oct 12, 8.42am.png
Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 09:11
by jamie
got a thunderstorm about to roll in here. Hearing rumbles
Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 09:16
by Manukau heads obs
ohh, yup,that looks like a good one
Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 09:26
by jamie
looks good that there is a bit of clearance from now until this afternoon when that trough arrives
Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 11:33
by Storm Struck
Great set up today I feel in my books warrants our first high risk for the season, all ingrediants are there onshore fresh winds heating with clear crisp sky this morning and the jet stream plus upper air is -30C excellent
.
Well worth the chase and I agree decent size hail with initial slow moving storms this afternoon maybe 15-20mm, not small hail like MS are saying.
Last night a weak storm snuck up on the front with purple/red on the radars quite sharply around midnight to 1am, some brief strikes were picked up near Ashburton.
Edit: Update now from MS had to have a wee snigger quoted from the thunder outlook..
From north Otago through Canterbury there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms this afternoon with medium sized hail.
Medium sized hail want fries with that??
Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 12:02
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Yes, Jason, I too had a wee sniggle at that.
Sounded like a forecast been dished out from a fish and chip shop
Hope the hail is not that big as I don't want more damage to the spring growth, trees, flowers etc.
Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 12:03
by Richard
you can have the medium sized hail down your way Jason,i'll just settle for some small thanks.
Must say the clouds are building nicely ATM,the SW wind had died so looking promising i reckon.
Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 12:23
by mikestormchaser
Looking good for a chase this afternoon with stormstruck and will meet up with 03stormchaser later aswel, beautiful day atm, clear skies, a little bit of CU around, hardly any wind, perfect ahead of the trough coming up this arvo!
Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 14:03
by Tornado Tim
A nice 70k squall came through just a few min ago, nice
However the temperature here is far too cold for that trough to ignite over land, we just keep on getting cold outflow and not much sun.......
Hopefully it will change, but I am not sure......
Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 14:04
by 03Stormchaser
In mid canterbury. Couple nice bases toward the alps.no lightning yet
Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 14:07
by 03Stormchaser
Looking toward Mt Somers
Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 14:52
by Orion
Acting on information received [thankyou], I've put the car under cover for the first time in years.
It's getting very dark here.
16.3 degrees.
Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 14:54
by Nev
I see MS this arvo have upgraded the risk of 'SEVERE thunderstorms' for the south of Northland to Taranaki area from low to moderate. General increase in hail size potential too.
Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 14:54
by jamie
ssome nasty looking stuff on our door step at the moment.
Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 14:55
by Orion
Thunder here now. Posting from phone for the future!
Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 14:57
by snowstormwatcher
Thunder and lightning here now, looks pretty dark over the hills.
Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 15:01
by Orion
Light rain, repeated peals of thunder.
Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 15:07
by jamie
Looks good inland from Timaru
Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 15:08
by snowstormwatcher
Heavy rain and hail here now along with a near gale Southerly.
Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 15:15
by Orion
Ten seconds between lightning and thunder. Seems to be to my NW or NNW now.
Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 15:25
by snowstormwatcher
Moved though here now. best Thunderstorm Ive seen in awhile though, Almost constant overhead lightning and thunder with 9mm of rain in 10mins.
Re: Thunderstorm Risk - 11th,12th October - North and South
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 15:27
by Tornado Tim
Looks like you guys down south have 2 or 3 cells to go after, have fun