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Spring storm 14-15 October
Posted: Fri 11/10/2013 09:59
by David
Looks like a major weather event for parts of the country Monday 14 October, especially eastern NZ which will likely see severe gales. Very heavy rain on the SI west coast also.
Check out the GFS wind speed predictions. These charts are for 1pm - sustained wind speeds about 45 knots around Chch, 55 knots around Kaikoura.
GFS-iso-1pm-14Oct2013.png
GFS-wind-1pm-14Oct2013.png
(edited title to include 15th)
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Fri 11/10/2013 10:03
by Manukau heads obs
I hope the farmers have now invested in generators
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Fri 11/10/2013 10:58
by TonyT
Manukau heads obs wrote:I hope the farmers have now invested in generators
And tie downs for their newly repaired irrigators!
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Fri 11/10/2013 11:01
by jamie
showing suface gusts of 75 knots on the Kaikoura coast.
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Fri 11/10/2013 12:22
by Bradley
Never seen windguru predict this strong winds for Christchurch, even with last month's event!
http://www.windguru.cz/int/index.php?sc=6381&sty=m_menu
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Fri 11/10/2013 12:28
by LittleTreeHouse
Hope not! Still cleaning up from the last episode!
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Fri 11/10/2013 14:16
by spike_01
Not a breath of wind in Welly today..
Monday however, it is supposed to gust 140+
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Fri 11/10/2013 21:37
by jamie
looks like another after this one is possible too. maybe not as strong though.
its shaping up to be quite an active spring this year.
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Fri 11/10/2013 22:00
by Tornado Tim
jamie wrote:
its shaping up to be quite an active spring this year.
Makes for a change doesn't it.
I hope farmers are prepared before this event, I suspect some insurance firms wont accept any claims to farm equipment not properly secured before a significant weather event.
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 07:36
by David
I notice GFS has dropped the forecast wind speed now (35 knots at Chch, 40 knots Kaikoura)
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 11:47
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Yeah, despite that, we have made sure that the chook-house is really secured down, this time and I have extra bricks in the S. Screen which got a bit damaged in last month's Big Blow.
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Sat 12/10/2013 13:23
by spike_01
Some nice cloud at Mt Kaukau right now..
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Sun 13/10/2013 11:14
by David
Gusts up to 140 km/h in some places tomorrow.
http://www.metservice.com/national/warn ... r-warnings
Metservice wrote:SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.
ISSUED BY MetService AT 10:31 am 13-Oct-2013
Burst of heavy rain for West Coast of the South Island, also headwaters of Otago and Canterbury late Sunday and Monday. Severe northwest gales for Otago, Canterbury, Marlborough, Wellington, Wairarapa and Kapiti on Monday.
A front preceded by a moist and very strong northwest flow is expected to move onto the lower South Island Monday morning, then rapidly sweep north to lie over the lower North Island Monday night and clear the island late Tuesday morning. This system is forecast to bring rain to most of the country, especially to western regions.
The heaviest falls are forecast for the Southern Alps of the South Island, where 200 to 300mm of rain may accumulate from tonight through to Monday evening. Fiordland, the ranges of Buller and Nelson, and the headwaters of the Otago and Canterbury lakes and rivers may recieve 100 to 200mm of rain during this time. People, especially trampers and those planning outdoor activities, are advised that streams and rivers are likely to rise rapidly, surface flooding and slips are possible.
In addition, very strong northwesterlies ahead of the front are expected to rise to severe gale for a time during Monday in the east of the country from Otago to Wairarapa, and also about Kapiti, with gusts of 120 km/h possible. However, damaging gusts of 140 km/h possible in exposed places of inland Canterbury and Wellington. Winds of this strength may damage insecure structures, bring down trees and powerlines and make driving hazardous, especially for high-sided vehicles and motorcycles.
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Sun 13/10/2013 17:11
by Storm Struck
Could be some elevated lightning in the rain band tomorrow afternoon for the Canterbury Plains too, but certainly up there in terms of wind gusts tomorrow very damaging im picking around lunchtime for mid and north Canterbury.
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Sun 13/10/2013 17:49
by Richard
Here's hoping for some elevated lightning Jason,boy we have been spoiled so far this spring for lightning,may it keep up
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Sun 13/10/2013 18:48
by Manukau heads obs
the NWer though is a fickle thing where and who will be affected
i.e its not going to be an exact repeat of the last one
(i.e some areas may be worse or better off)
also the bands of up and down do migrate across the plains as the wind increases/decreases
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Sun 13/10/2013 20:27
by melja
Well it can bugger off as I had about 3500sqm out of 10000sqm of my greenhouses at work ripped apart last time and due to the work load of the repair crews we have had no work done on them yet and im sure the rest cant handle much more.
Drove home from the coast late this arvo and man was it raining in the alps with flooding, gale NWer in the foothills and about 30kmh gusting 50kmh here in the last hour.
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Sun 13/10/2013 20:46
by RWood
spike_01 wrote:Not a breath of wind in Welly today..
Monday however, it is supposed to gust 140+
I wouldn't mind that so much if we hadn't already had a rotten time of it in the last 20-25 days - cooler, wetter and much cloudier than average - in fact I can only think of a couple of occasions in the last 30 years with such drab conditions at this time of year.
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Sun 13/10/2013 20:52
by Brassnz
Am supposed to be flying into Welly on Monday evening (gulp). Might be doing the Jetstar boogaloo.
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Sun 13/10/2013 21:06
by RODALCO
13Oct2013 west.png
This looks interesting.
Hope it eventuates.
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Sun 13/10/2013 21:30
by jamie
wow that front has gone bonkers since 5pm our time.
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Mon 14/10/2013 00:55
by Razor
I saw frequent lightning accross the alps on my port hills run tonight
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Mon 14/10/2013 05:27
by Orion
Some very strong gusts in the last hour or so: looks like I'm up for the day.
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Mon 14/10/2013 07:03
by Richard
Same here,just about goes calm in between the gusts though.
Re: Spring storm 14 October
Posted: Mon 14/10/2013 07:21
by NZstorm
This set up crosses the North Island tomorrow morning but weakening. Some low topped convection on the front will enhance the risk of a few severe gusts 70knots over northern areas in the morning and BOP in the afternoon.