General November Weather

[Nev]

http://www.metservice.com/warnings/seve ... m-warnings

Did anyone save it? It's gone now & would have been good to have been able to take a quick gander.

MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

Thunderstorm Warning(s) in force for:

Canterbury Radar Area

No Thunderstorm Warning in force for:

Auckland Radar Area, Bay of Plenty Radar Area, Gisborne / Hawke's Bay Radar Area, Taranaki Radar Area, Wellington Radar Area, Westland Radar Area, Southland Radar Area

Canterbury Radar Area

MetService Severe Thunderstorm Warning Map - Is. Nov 1, 4.40pm.png

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Issued by MetService at 04:40 pm Friday 01 November 2013.
Valid until 05:30 pm Friday 01 November 2013.

This warning affects people in the following local government areas:
ASHBURTON.

At 04:30 pm, MetService weather radar detected severe thunderstorms near HINDS.

These severe thunderstorms are moving towards the northnortheast, and are expected to lie near ASHBURTON, WINCHMORE, TINWALD and WESTERFIELD at 05:00 pm and near ASHBURTON, WINCHMORE and LAURISTON at 05:30 pm.

These thunderstorms are expected to be accompanied by large hail.

Large hail can cause significant damage to crops, orchards, vines, glasshouses and vehicles, and make driving conditions hazardous.

The Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management advises that as storms approach you should:
- Take shelter, preferably indoors away from windows;
- Avoid sheltering under trees, if outside;
- Move cars under cover or away from trees;
- Secure any loose objects around your property;
- Check that drains and gutters are clear;
- Be ready to slow down or stop, if driving.
During and after the storm, you should also:
- Beware of fallen trees and power lines;
- Avoid streams and drains as you may be swept away in flash flooding.

This warning is due to be updated or lifted by 05:30 pm Friday 01 November 2013.

[Thunder]

Got a few photo's out chasing today, tried hard but rain kept getting on the lense etc. Constant cleaning it off. Hard work.....

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[Tornado Tim]

Very good Aaron, well done

This potential upcoming low later on next week is looking very interesting.....
Especially the convective potential from it
Will watch with keen interest, especially the forecast soundings taking note of shear.

[mikestormchaser]

Awesome photos aaron. Always enjoy ur photography . Went out with jase and meet up with our new female storm enthusiest,didnt have to go far, sat between dunsandle and rakaia. Observed lightning on film and chased it inland towards darfield before the storm died.. great chase though!! I ditched a pub crawl I was meant to be on tonight for storms.

[Richard]

I ditched a pub crawl I was meant to be on tonight for storms.

Now thats dedication

Good photos Aaron

[NZstorm]

Nice work there Aaron. I have to get one of those lightning triggers.

Very good Aaron, well done

This potential upcoming low later on next week is looking very interesting.....
Especially the convective potential from it
Will watch with keen interest, especially the forecast soundings taking note of shear.

Here's hoping.

Looks like an active front will bring widespread rain to the North Island overnight Tuesday. We need a decent rain event for the farmers.

[spike_01]

Had hail here in the hills last night at 6pm..

[spwill]

Yes, well done on the above photos/reports

The sound of rain on the roof here this morning was very nice, hopefully there is more on the way, I'm not a fan of dry climate.

[Lacertae]

A hell of a twisty strike on your 2nd shot Aaron !

[mikestormchaser]

I ditched a pub crawl I was meant to be on tonight for storms.

Now thats dedication

Good photos Aaron

haha! well its just our passion and i cant really afford to miss many.. the conditions looked so ripe at 5pm i thought ah stuff it lets go! lol

[Razor]

See metservice going with low/ mod risks today too, hard to see at the moment. Hope not, am going to the cricket tonight

[spwill]

The east coast of Northland looks the spot for a possible thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon if the sea breezes can get going.

More thunder possibilities showing up later Tues to Thurs at this stage with the incoming low system.

[Storm Struck]

This is the lightning trigger both me and Aaron use NZstorm but I havnt had the chance to use mine properly yet as ive been the driver most times, this looks to be the latest one going.
http://www.nerotrigger.com/

When out with Mike and another new chaser yesterday we spotted a really good wall cloud to the west on the eastern end of it ahead of the storm, there was a brief funnel cloud with definite rotation but lasted 5-10 seconds as usual.
Also spotted a horseshoe funnel driving towards the storm earlier on.
I didn't have my cameras on me as I didn't plan to go chasing having something else on, but still used my camera on my S4 Galaxy.
More chances popping up at the end of next week by the looks

[jamie]

fingers crossed for next week. quite variable in the models still as one would expect but always showing the possibility of something of interest happening.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Good shots there Aaron. Just like the lightning observed from here
Thunder sounded was if it was a bit muffled ? I wonder why?

[Lacertae]

Air pressure, temperature or humidity may be ?

[Richard]

Good shots there Aaron. Just like the lightning observed from here
Thunder sounded was if it was a bit muffled ? I wonder why?

Yer i noticed that,even the two storms that pasted here didn't seem to have had much horse power with them,you know ,the type of thunder that ends with a real deep rumble.

[tilly123]

Fantastic out there last night. Was great being out with Mike and Jason, would have loved to have gotten ahead of the storm to take photo's. Fingers crossed for this coming week.

[Orion]

Welcome, tilly!

[jamie]

Will watch with keen interest, especially the forecast soundings taking note of shear.

Yes this is certainly looking the limiting factor. Will this lead to pulsy showers?

[tilly123]

Thank you

[Tornado Tim]

Yes this is certainly looking the limiting factor. Will this lead to pulsy showers?

Perhaps in the Waikato at this stage as it looks like the system will be crossing the North Central of the North Island. However this is not ruling out the possibility of Severe Multi-cell storms (Example of Feb 2010 outbreak).

Going by the GFS runs over the past fews days, the Manuwatu could experience a discrete supercell or two, due to favourable speed shear on Wednesday and possibly Thursday.

Its still too far out to call it at this time, as it very much depends of where the LCC of the Low pressure system ends up crossing. GFS has shown quite a bit of Interaction between the Jet Stream and that will play a big factor in what type of storms develop.
One thing that is more certain is that this system will be bringing heaps of moisture, due to it being forecasted to sit in the Tasman for quite a few days.
We will have more of a fuller picture when the event comes closer....

[NZstorm]

Thanks Jason for the link to the lightning trigger.

Tim wrote

GFS has shown quite a bit of Interaction between the Jet Stream and that will play a big factor in what type of storms develop.

Looks like the jet stream will beef up the front overnight Tuesday over the North Island.

[einzack]

i'm excited as the forecast has no rain for us for the next 4-5 days.
after having only 8 dry days in the last 6 weeks, any extended period of sunshine will be gratefully appreciated.

[Tornado Tim]

Some quite active elevated storms occurring over the tasman atm. Around 400 to 500 strikes per hour according to NZAPStrike/Blitzortung.

The Trough of low pressure in the south Tasman will gain some cyclogenesis over the next 12hours as the polar jet skirts south more or less feeding it.

Time for a new Thread I think.........