Hopefully the trough can hang on for you Steve03Stormchaser wrote:Models are now showing a shift to Friday being a good storm day up north, no shear though. I really shouldnt be looking this far out but just cant help myself lol
EC has it out the way Friday, still early days
I get the feeling the latest GFS run doesn't fit the trend from the few runs beforehand showing thursday being the most unstable. Wed/thursday here in Canterbury arnt looking to shabby, and we all know Cnaterbury storms are the best anywayspwill wrote:Hopefully the trough can hang on for you Steve03Stormchaser wrote:Models are now showing a shift to Friday being a good storm day up north, no shear though. I really shouldnt be looking this far out but just cant help myself lol
CAPE is a hard number to nail down. The traditional severe hail events on the Canterbury plains do occur with relatively small CAPE but the dynamics such as shear and forcing are big. Its a combination of factors that go into the mix for a storm.mikestormchaser wrote:man havent seen that in awhile.. CAPE of 1000 over canterbury wensday, the LIs are -4.. good instability!! sometimes the models arent actually that accurate with CAPE on canterbury plains though. so it could be abit higher
Hopefully we can show you what a good storm does look like on Friday03Stormchaser wrote:
I get the feeling the latest GFS run doesn't fit the trend from the few runs beforehand showing thursday being the most unstable. Wed/thursday here in Canterbury arnt looking to shabby, and we all know Cnaterbury storms are the best anyway
but the very latest GFS run does have the system moving out.That's because you have forgotten/never witnessed what the north island has to offer03Stormchaser wrote: and we all know Cnaterbury storms are the best anyway
Exactlyjamie wrote: That's because you have forgotten/never witnessed what the north island has to offer
The big factor in Canterbury tornadoes is the very steep lapse rates in summer with the 850mb temperatures typically around 0C and 700mb temps around -9C.03Stormchaser wrote:An example was the Waimate tornado March 8th 2006, only had Cape of about 500 but more of a key ingredient were Li's-4 to -5 (Unfortunatly I cant remember shear figures from this day) but this formed a low topped supercell. I tend to only look at Cape as a level of instability rather than take anything of the actual figure.
On Saturday jamie wrote:Got to 26.7C yesterday. ... 27.3C in 2010 is the warmest November temp this station has ever recorded.
Got to 26.7C again today.
The airport had a SW yesterday and still got to 26C thoughNZstorm wrote:21C in Grey Lynn already but the SW flow will prevent temps getting as warm as yesterday.
Yeah it is freshening a bit now. We did reach a max of 25.9°C in Howick thoughspwill wrote:The southwest seabreeze will be fresher this afternoon than previous days, the upside being it keeps the sea breeze convergence out.
Humidity up a little today, dewpoint 17 -18C, currently sunny 24C
No NW here, despite the fact it got up to 25.4C.Richard wrote:NW wind arrived here at about 10.00 am ,sitting on 24deg atm.
According to NIWA (https://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/daily-climate-maps) quite a large portion of the country is at least 1C warmer than usual, with parts of the South Island at least 2C warmer than usual.Manukau heads obs wrote:I would say that there will be places in NZ that might end up with one of their warmest Novembers on record?
