Tasman Low- Storms and Rain - 4th to 9th Nov

[dan]

Fog going over the Kaimais. Weird

[jamie]

Its hard to tell just where i need to be heading. Really just need to wait and see where it kicks off but id still like to be in a good position. What are the experts thoughts on the development of a line south of Auckland? Will it start in the north and build south while is moves in a SW direction?

[Weather Watcher]

Its hard to tell just where i need to be heading. Really just need to wait and see where it kicks off but id still like to be in a good position. What are the experts thoughts on the development of a line south of Auckland? Will it start in the north and build south while is moves in a SW direction?

My guess would be to the hills west of Hamilton. This is where the models suggest the strongest low-level convergence will be over the next 2-3 hours, and the cell currently northwest of Huntly is building and moving southwards.

[jamie]

Thanks for your thoughts weather watcher. Yea I thought that too this morning when looking at the models but i would have expected some form of signs that that would be the target by now but that area seems the most clear. Perhaps that's not the case down in waitomoo though.

[jamie]

Possible funnel on the rain free base to my north. I'm a long way away but that looked well defined. Was there for about a minute that I saw. Still there now actually. Just much much smaller. Anyone in the te kauwhata area that can confirm that?

[jamie]

Yea that's definitly a funnel. Went away but came back again. It's too far for my iPhone to zoom and then cropping the image it becomes too grainy to see it.

[spwill]

Have seen several small funnel clouds on that NorthWaikato storm

[jamie]

has been nice to hear a small amount of thunder. But overall nothing much except for the funnel cloud today. Hopefully tomorrow brings better action.

Something trying to get going near me but seems to be struggling.

There is an impressive cell south of Karipiro

[Manukau heads obs]

saw that cloud from waiuku...had a real cork screw look to it

the high cloud from the next front moving down from the north was a real dampener in the waiuku area (where I happened to be (kids touch rugby game))
was some good thunder there at 3:30pm

[spwill]

A great storm over the Mercer/Meremere area with hail up to about 1cm mixed with the heavy rain, it also produced several funnel clouds over a 30 min period. photo of funnel cloud

[madaero]

getting some solid thunder and lightening in dinsdale in the last half hour,has remained dry tho-as i type,spits are falling now tho.

[Manukau heads obs]

nice catch their spwill

re the hamilton CB...can see that from here...nice punchy top on it

[Manukau heads obs]

photo of CB over hamilton

[spwill]

A few more photos from my afternoon

[Manukau heads obs]

thats huge mama in that 2nd photo!

[jamie]

A great storm over the Mercer/Meremere area with hail up to about 1cm mixed with the heavy rain, it also produced several funnel clouds over a 30 min period. photo of funnel cloud

Nice....the funnel cloud i saw was massive. Very wide and went about half way to the ground from what i could see.

That storm over Hamilton is flicking out some nice CG strikes.

[GreggWard]

Nice photos Spwill.

[littleheaven]

I am getting the radar fine on the iphone app. And boy, here's a big band of nasty not far from hitting Auckland. I'd say we're going to cop it fairly shortly. *rubs hands together in glee*

[NZstorm]

I am getting the radar fine on the iphone app. And boy, here's a big band of nasty not far from hitting Auckland. I'd say we're going to cop it fairly shortly. *rubs hands together in glee*

Looks like the thunder chances will be over the sea to our east overnight.

Tomorrows thunderstorm set up could be mucked up a bit up by the cloud sheet currently over Northland. Have to see how it looks in the morning. Hopefully it breaks up a bit.

[jamie]

Tomorrows thunderstorm set up could be mucked up a bit up by the cloud sheet currently over Northland. Have to see how it looks in the morning. Hopefully it breaks up a bit.

Is it not going to move off in a similar way that last night and this mornings cloud and rain?

[Tornado Tim]

Yea looks like the instability will be mainly off the east coast overnight.

Tommorows outloook

Issued at: 8:53pm Wednesday 6 Nov 2013

Updated 8:55pm Wednesday to increase area of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS risk.

An upper cold pool is expected to cover the north and central North Island.Daytime heating and sea breeze convergence is likely to generate frequent and heavy showers.

Over most of the North Island down to northern areas of Manawatu and Hawkes Bay there is a low risk of thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening. However,during the afternoon the risk increases to high for many areas from central Northland to the central North Island, inland Taranaki and the Bay of Plenty ranges. These thunderstorms are likely to be accompanied by localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25mm per hour and hail of 10 to 20mm in diameter. There is also a moderate risk of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS producing downpours with intensities of 25 to 40mm per hour.

No thunderstorms expected elsewhere Wednesday afternoon and evening.

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Had a look at the 00z GFS forecast for tomorrow, high CAPE numbers up to 1200j/kg SFC, 600j/kg mixed and upper air moist, resulting in a very High SWEAT Index of 309! No wonder why Metservice have added the Severe risk for very heavy rain.
Shear is negligible for this setup so hail should be under 20mm. Also hardly any steer/shear means that updraft can be more easily hindered and the entire `core` can be dumped in a matter of minutes.
However since this a high CAPE setup for NZ, flanking lines on cell's should bode well and result in multicell complexes, should thunderstorms get going, which is looking likely

[NZstorm]

Tomorrows thunderstorm set up could be mucked up a bit up by the cloud sheet currently over Northland. Have to see how it looks in the morning. Hopefully it breaks up a bit.

Is it not going to move off in a similar way that last night and this mornings cloud and rain?

It was good to get the clear skies today. The high cloud will be a player in Thursdays set up but thunderstorms still likely over the Waikato/Waitomo. But have to see how skies look tomorrow morning.

[NZstorm]

gfs wind chart for 1pm Thursday. You can see the convergence will be from Taranaki to Auckland. With heating the west coast wind will come more onshore as a sea breeze.

[spwill]

Yes, the high cloud could dampen tomorrows storm development, hopefully a mostly sunny afternoon for Waikato.
I plan to head down to Waikato.

[jamie]

Yes looks rather good for tomorrow. Ill be up for a chase tomorrow however ill play it as it happens again. Hopefully it doesn't all start before 4 or I might be late to the party