Tasman Low- Storms and Rain - 4th to 9th Nov

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Fri 08/11/2013 07:10

Nev wrote:
Brassnz wrote:That Cb to the east is spectacular from here (out West). Sadly the photo size is too large to post here, and the power is currently off so I can't fiddle with the resolution.
Hope it's as striking as this pyro-ring yesterday evening, lol ...

'West Auckland power restored' - Stuff
'Raw video: Smoke rises after substation fired' - One News

Far out!

Manukau heads obs · Fri 08/11/2013 07:16

the wind here this morning is more easterly
yesterday morning it was SE

so its actually better here for a sea breeze convergence

skies are starting to clear over north waikato already...

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 08/11/2013 07:43

A southwester will have the storm potential over east Auckland this afternoon

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 08/11/2013 08:18

Sky is trying to clear here but not a lot of luck so far. That wind is rather cold too.

We really need those darn pesky showers to bugger off and then we might stand a chance today.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 08/11/2013 08:30

already T/cu in the E.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 08/11/2013 08:58

yes, patches of blue here now and some nice looking CU
I will be in Waiuku this arvo (daughter needing to go to exam refresher)

Manukau heads obs · Fri 08/11/2013 08:59

cool:
http://metservice.com/national/warnings ... rm-outlook
looks like a severe threat map form the USA

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 08/11/2013 09:04

clearing nicely now

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Fri 08/11/2013 09:21

Today should pan out better than the last 2 days for us Waikato folk, I expect that activity will start in Auckland and start developing further south today later on in the afternoon.
Todays outlook:

Metservice wrote: Upper level temperatures remain relatively cold over the North Island during today, and conditions are likely to be favourable for the development of thunderstorms from Northland down to the central North Island high country and inland Hawkes Bay. There is a moderate to high risk of thunderstorms developing in these areas, especially during the afternoon. These thunderstorms are likely to be accompanied by localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25mm per hour and hail of 10 to 20mm in diameter. Additionally, there is a moderate risk of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS forming during the afternoon about the ranges of Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay and across to Taupo and Tongariro National Park,producing localised downpours with intensities of 25 to 35mm per hour. There is also a low risk of isolated thunderstorms over the Wanganui hill country, the ranges of northern Manawatu and the ranges of Nelson this afternoon.

Note, thunderstorm activity is expected to decrease in most areas early Friday evening.

No thunderstorms expected elsewhere during the period.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 08/11/2013 09:22

I am making the call:
its going to be epic today

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 08/11/2013 09:30

Problem still is that there is no cap. We just had a very breif shower wet the conrete. Need things to slow down a bit.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 08/11/2013 09:39

yeah, but today we are going to get a sea breeze convergence....yesterday we didnt...
(as there is more heating occuring today...more clear patches)

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 08/11/2013 10:31

There is no way a sea breeze convergence will get underway today if things dont change. We have showers about to move in again. There is also a decent easterly breeze. Its going to take a lot of heating to create enough of a low pressure inland that enables a sea breeze from the west coast to overpower this easterly breeze thats filled with junk. Auckland could be again the better spot as it seems to have clearer sky.

Fingers crossed though that this pattern changes throughout the rest of the morning.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Fri 08/11/2013 10:48

Convection is looking lovely bold and crisp this morning.

Today should be better than yesterday, yesterday had that horrible blob of rain that hung around too long and then more pesky showers. This time the showers look more isolated that are coming in from the BOP shore. Should be better for heating.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 08/11/2013 10:51

the easterly is not too strong here...only 5 knots...
and we are already on 16C here...
and good cloud build ups here on the coastal hills already

David · Unread post by **David** » Fri 08/11/2013 10:55

Cloudy areas and some sunny periods here, with very little wind. Had some convective-style rain drops around 10am from a large cumulus cloud.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 08/11/2013 10:55

That's good to hear. Just watched a nice tower go up an hit the ceiling to my NE

David · Unread post by **David** » Fri 08/11/2013 11:13

Cumulonimbus way to the ENE (Coromandel maybe?)

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 08/11/2013 11:19

jamie wrote:Just watched a nice tower go up an hit the ceiling to my NE

That is now a storm on the Hauraki plains. Have a good view of the top of it from work. It seems to be back building a bit too

Manukau heads obs · Fri 08/11/2013 11:26

17.3C here now...
wind tending southerly here now...
edit : make that SSW now..so sea breeze started here now
good build ups inland from me...
Pukekohe might get a good dump of rain this afternoon..as any showers that develop will be very slow moving

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 08/11/2013 11:28

Awesome thanks for that update Brian. Interesting that its already started.

That cell to my NE is going bazurk and is rapidly expanding the size of its anvil. Will take a pic.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 08/11/2013 11:33

ImageUploadedByTapatalk1383863557.084208.jpg

Also have nice Tcu to my N round to my W.

Hordur · Unread post by **Hordur** » Fri 08/11/2013 11:53

Current, 11am, lifted indices over the North Island. Based on surface observations and model upper air.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Fri 08/11/2013 12:01

Thank you Hordur!

Some very buoyant air around!

David · Unread post by **David** » Fri 08/11/2013 12:07

NE sea breeze just developing here now

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