Isolated Storms BOP/Waikato- 11 November

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Sun 10/11/2013 12:37

Looks like we have a heat/wind convergence induced Thunder setup coming tomorrow, which is a surprise, which may be also assisted by trough passing.

GFS is expecting moisture to come in on Seabreeze and with the heat of day develop potential storms.
Due to expected afternoon temps on the 11th to be around 25°C, it poses a more likely setup for a Seabreeze to enter the equation. The Seabreeze front will most likely enter East central Waikato around 5 to 6PM.

However upper air is fairly dry and there is a risk that the air will mix out, like it did on Friday. The Kaimai Ranges, Rotorua and East Central Waikato, look like the best place.

I may have a peek tomorrow due to the location of the setup, but will only head out If I see something worthwhile.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 10/11/2013 12:51

GFS has been showing this afternoon shower/storm chance for atleast a few days. A sunny afternoon across inland BOP/ Waikato is needed.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Sun 10/11/2013 13:03

spwill wrote:GFS has been showing this afternoon shower/storm chance for atleast a few days.

Shows how much I have been looking at the models since Friday. Didnt bother looking due to thinking that the incoming ridge would get rid of any chance.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 10/11/2013 13:37

I have deleted the sounding I posted earlier and will check out todays 00Z run.

A weakness with the set up is a lack of shortwave.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 11/11/2013 06:52

Checking at the 12Z run, looking like a weak cb or two could spring up after 5pm. But not much of a set up.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 11/11/2013 07:58

we had a bit of drizzle here this morning...the sea gulls that came in last night were right...LOL

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Mon 11/11/2013 14:27

SFC conditions are ideal for a heat induced storm - temp of 23 with Dp of 18C! The lift just needs to be there. If anything gets going its going to be quite late around 6 PM onwards I think.
Baro decreasing too which is another good sign....

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Mon 11/11/2013 19:18

Big coliflower tops to my ESE but nothing on radar....yet?

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 11/11/2013 19:38

Lack of short wave energy was a big negative on today's convection chances as well as the warm upper level air.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Mon 11/11/2013 21:29

Spoken a little too soon i think, look at the latest radar image:
60dbz in all

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Mon 11/11/2013 21:36

Yea very nice cell. Very late starting for nz standards. Nicely isolated but sadly no lightning yet

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 11/11/2013 21:39

The wind convergence has come through too late

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Mon 11/11/2013 21:45

Lapse rates are/were not very good today, would have done a little better if the convergence occurred late afternoon. A pitty but 60dbz for a shower.......

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 12/11/2013 06:55

The short wave was running about 6hrs late. It was over the upper South Island late afternoon and spreading onto the NI in the evening.

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