Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Archive of NZ Weather & Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
User avatar
Gobus _WeatherBus
Posts: 3
Joined: Sat 25/05/2013 22:40
Location: Tauranga
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by Gobus _WeatherBus »

Hi Guys sorry have i have been so busy at work at gobus here some Good storms today before i head off to Tepuke Depot and here some pics are from Tepuke,My Bus depot in Tauranga and my place in Welcome bay sorry for wrong date on the photos i just had wrong date and time on it
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Gobus 121 is my bus in best in Gobus Tauranga its cute a small ideal for around Tauranga City
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Yes. Jim said on the Weather that you guys had some thunderstorms over the WE on the telly at the motel we were staying @ in "Oh Ahh Mar Roo"
Didn't really seem to mind.
More fun down here with penny-farthings and Steampunk 8-o
JohnGaul
NZThS
User avatar
tgsnoopy
Posts: 3653
Joined: Fri 25/03/2005 21:17
Location: Tauranga, NZ (Curse you COVID-19 :-( )
Has thanked: 816 times
Been thanked: 283 times

Re: Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

I shot up the Kaimais when I finally got clear of commitments at Tauranga Hospital.

I was looking over Rotorua way where it looked better on the way, but chose the Kaimai's to get into the Waikato based on Radar/TOA action.

Once at the summit I waited at the Waikato side observation point and tried unsuccessfully to get updated data. Saw very little but heard some great thunder from embedded stuff.

Headed back towards Tauranga and drove down through some of the heaviest rain I've driven in, saw a couple of good CG's too.

Sadly it never made it in to Tauranga, darn Kaimai Force Field ;)

Might go up and grab the car camera's card in a bit and copy off it's contents to see what the recordings look like.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by NZstorm »

Warmer upper levels and a freash NE shut the Waikato down today. GFS rainfall chart for this afternoon. Seems Waitomo could be good if the sea breeze kicks in. As always with gfs charts, the rainfall distribution is relevant but the totals are shown are not accurate.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Last edited by NZstorm on Wed 20/11/2013 06:59, edited 1 time in total.
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yesterday was 3.6c warmer than normal (for the whole 24 hours) here
thats some of the biggest numbers I have seen
no wonder we got a good thunderstorm :)
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by spwill »

Photo of hail falling at Bombay.

Not a great day for photography yesterday because there was a lot of cloud cover .
I will have to buy a lightning trigger for my camera
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
jamie
Posts: 5907
Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
Location: Hamilton NZ
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 273 times
Contact:

Re: Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by jamie »

So jealous of your rain Tim, guess ill just have to keep watering all the new garden we have put in round the house.
User avatar
Tornado Tim
Moderator
Posts: 4920
Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
Has thanked: 102 times
Been thanked: 202 times
Contact:

Re: Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

jamie wrote:So jealous of your rain Tim, guess ill just have to keep watering all the new garden we have put in round the house.
It pritty much came all at once and did create some minor surface flooding, not sure how good that is for new planted plants.

Looks like we have another Mod to High risk of storm on Thursday, but this time it will be westerly focused. Te Awamutu is looking like a good place......
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
jamie
Posts: 5907
Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
Location: Hamilton NZ
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 273 times
Contact:

Re: Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by jamie »

Today looks as though there is an outside chance for here but really not worth holding much hope for it.
User avatar
Tornado Tim
Moderator
Posts: 4920
Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
Has thanked: 102 times
Been thanked: 202 times
Contact:

Re: Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

jamie wrote:Today looks as though there is an outside chance for here but really not worth holding much hope for it.
Yea unfortunate eh, as NZStorm said, Waikato has warmer upper level temps today. This will limit how high the convection can go. If we look at 500mb temps go, its like yesterday around -17 to -18C however the air above that breaches the Saturated Adiabatic Lapse rate. Which means there wont be much activity above that level which means it will be a shower setup.
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by spwill »

No convergence here today with the gusty NE breeze, conditions on the warm side, small towering Cu around.
I see Hutt Valley is on 26C
User avatar
tgsnoopy
Posts: 3653
Joined: Fri 25/03/2005 21:17
Location: Tauranga, NZ (Curse you COVID-19 :-( )
Has thanked: 816 times
Been thanked: 283 times

Re: Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Tornado Tim wrote:Looks like we have another Mod to High risk of storm on Thursday, but this time it will be westerly focused. Te Awamutu is looking like a good place......
Sweet, Starting in Hamilton and finishing in Taumaranui tomorrow. Bummer for having to try to work if it rains, but at least I might get to see something.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by NZstorm »

Widespread shower activity over the North Island again but not much thunder activity by the looks. The upper level warming has moved in fairly quickly today.
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

reports from locals of between 25 and 50mm , just a few kms north of me, from that slow moving CB yesterday
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
User avatar
Tornado Tim
Moderator
Posts: 4920
Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
Has thanked: 102 times
Been thanked: 202 times
Contact:

Re: Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

tgsnoopy wrote:
Sweet, Starting in Hamilton and finishing in Taumaranui tomorrow. Bummer for having to try to work if it rains, but at least I might get to see something.
The further you head south the better. Taumaranui is a good spot for potential activity tomorrow.
The warmer upper air hangs around for a while in the Waikato, which is a pity. Inland Taranaki and Waitomo look the best chance for storms over the next few days but looking at the models its very border-line instability.
Heavy showers with a low risk of a storm in Northland on Saturday.

Sunday looks quite potent at this stage (Lots and lots of forecasted latent heat)!
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by NZstorm »

Doesn't look very good on gfs until the weekend.

GFS Sunday looks great but will it hold up in future runs of GFS?
GreggWard
Posts: 434
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:09
Location: Palmerston North
Has thanked: 160 times
Been thanked: 5 times

Re: Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by GreggWard »

NZstorm wrote:Widespread shower activity over the North Island again but not much thunder activity by the looks. The upper level warming has moved in fairly quickly today.
Things didn't really fire like they were expected to, in inland Manawatu. There were large shower clouds around, but I never witnessed any lightning. Now that I see your comment NZstorm that would explain why. Thanks.
jamie
Posts: 5907
Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
Location: Hamilton NZ
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 273 times
Contact:

Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by jamie »

Wow Sundays forecast is something I can't see holding. Doubt it will be there the next run. But it does look bloody nice.
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by spwill »

Our weather is set to turn humid from the weekend
Dewpoint chart for Sunday
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by NZstorm »

Convective rainfall chart for this afternoon/evening.

Looks like mainly just showers. Canterbury could be the best spot for a possible thunderstorm today.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looks like a warm front may affect Northland on Saturday with embedded thunder possible. Ukmet has it over Auckland Saturday night.
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by Richard »

I'll be working close to CHCH today so hopefully something comes of it later.
jamie
Posts: 5907
Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
Location: Hamilton NZ
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 273 times
Contact:

Re: Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by jamie »

Look at the GFS for next week! Some real juicy numbers for the north island in terms of convection starting Monday and going for the most of the working week. I'm enjoying this more active weather period we are going through.
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by spwill »

Yes, great to have this pattern this time of year.

Showery here this morning, only light showers at my place but there are some big cumulus around.
jamie
Posts: 5907
Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
Location: Hamilton NZ
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 273 times
Contact:

Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Unread post by jamie »

Man I'm sure I heard thunder a few minutes ago. No real clouds that look like they could produce a storm. Strange!
Locked