Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Manukau heads obs · Thu 21/11/2013 14:58

I think I thought I did too...maybe a sonic boom?

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Thu 21/11/2013 15:38

Manukau heads obs wrote:I think I thought I did too...maybe a sonic boom?

From what tho?

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 21/11/2013 16:03

A passing jet?

Manukau heads obs · Thu 21/11/2013 17:50

tropical downpour type rain shower occured in Waiuku this arvo

David · Unread post by **David** » Thu 21/11/2013 20:08

jamie wrote:Look at the GFS for next week! Some real juicy numbers for the north island in terms of convection starting Monday and going for the most of the working week. I'm enjoying this more active weather period we are going through.

I just had to save some of the charts, never seen them have such good instability numbers. Of course, being a week away it could change dramatically...

But here are the lifted index and CAPE charts for 7pm Thursday 28th (too early to start a new thread at this stage).

GFS-LiftedIndex-7pm28Oct2013.png

GFS-CAPE-7pm28Oct2013.png

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Thu 21/11/2013 20:13

Haha David I was just coming on here to do the same. Looks crazy. A real bullseye!

GFS has been keeping consistent with some serious instability for next week but keeps pushing it further out. Was showing Sunday as the day 2 days ago. Monday yesterday. Tuesday Wednesday this morn and tonight Thursday. Hopefully it can settle on a day and we get some real storms.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Thu 21/11/2013 20:33

Yes I saw that this afternoon and my jaw dropped. -8 Li forecast for NZ is absolutely insane!
I doubt it will hold, but output from the GFS for NZ that extreme is amazing.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 21/11/2013 20:47

Yes, next week could be interesting, very moist air showing with the incoming trough, something to watch

Airmass is looking drier now for this weekend, instability dropping away in the model, hopefully it will reverse.

A fine afternoon here, some low top Cb over southwestern parts of Ak

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Thu 21/11/2013 21:49

Im around Auckland on Friday and free to chase all day. Staying at Ibis at the Airport Thursday night. Friday is a free day for me, have rental car but will end up somewere close(ish) to whakatane for white island unless saturday looks insane for storms.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Thu 21/11/2013 21:57

03Stormchaser wrote:Im around Auckland on Friday and free to chase all day. Staying at Ibis at the Airport Thursday night. Friday is a free day for me, have rental car but will end up somewere close(ish) to whakatane for white island unless saturday looks insane for storms.

Neat. Hopefully we can get a good chaser group next week and the storms fire!

I'm 100% free. Unless baby is sick or something.

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Thu 21/11/2013 22:26

Hmm, need to check Whiteboard at work to see if I am committed to anything.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Thu 21/11/2013 22:27

Im sooooo tempeted to change my booking and come up thursday morning or wed night...

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Fri 22/11/2013 01:46

Do it Steve, represent! lol

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 22/11/2013 02:29

03Stormchaser wrote:Im sooooo tempeted to change my booking and come up thursday morning or wed night...

It could be worth it but then again it could all change being so far away.

From my amateur arm chair, this all locks like its frontal anyway? That means embedded hidden storms?

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 22/11/2013 06:31

From my amateur arm chair, this all locks like its frontal anyway? That means embedded hidden storms?

To me it has the look of a Hobsonville storm type set up. Possibility of frequent lightning and localised severe weather events.
But we have to keep in mind this is still days away in the modelling.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 22/11/2013 07:21

caching...I can hear the air plane tickets being purchased

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 22/11/2013 08:52

03Stormchaser wrote:Im around Auckland on Friday and free to chase all day. Staying at Ibis at the Airport Thursday night. Friday is a free day for me, have rental car but will end up somewere close(ish) to whakatane for white island unless saturday looks insane for storms.

Looks like drier stable air moving in Friday but Bay of Plenty/ Gisborne might be good for a storm on Friday, obviously still a long way out in the modelling.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 22/11/2013 13:33

Taupo web cam http://www.takeabreak.co.nz/accommodati ... .asp?cam=2 some showers developing there

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 22/11/2013 15:04

I wonder how far north the showers/storms will get today, as that's the direction they are heading?

Rotorua looks like its about to get a fairly decent one.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 22/11/2013 17:38

Hmmm i wonder if this cell just around the Karipiro area will make it further north? Looks to be developing on a sea breeze convergence. I can see it very well from here and it looks very nice

Taihape is having a thunderstorm.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 22/11/2013 18:27

definitely developing towards Hamilton now.

Justout · Unread post by **Justout** » Fri 22/11/2013 18:34

Good lightning strikes all around me at the moment...

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 22/11/2013 18:38

Justout wrote:Good lightning strikes all around me at the moment...

I'm not surprised. I can see lightning from here

Justout · Unread post by **Justout** » Fri 22/11/2013 18:39

Stormy

Justout · Unread post by **Justout** » Fri 22/11/2013 18:40

Yep, seen some good fork lightning with long rolling thunder.

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