NZ Weather Forum

I think I thought I did too...maybe a sonic boom?

Manukau heads obs wrote:I think I thought I did too...maybe a sonic boom?

From what tho?

A passing jet?

tropical downpour type rain shower occured in Waiuku this arvo

jamie wrote:Look at the GFS for next week! Some real juicy numbers for the north island in terms of convection starting Monday and going for the most of the working week. I'm enjoying this more active weather period we are going through.

I just had to save some of the charts, never seen them have such good instability numbers. Of course, being a week away it could change dramatically...

But here are the lifted index and CAPE charts for 7pm Thursday 28th (too early to start a new thread at this stage).

Haha David I was just coming on here to do the same. Looks crazy. A real bullseye!

GFS has been keeping consistent with some serious instability for next week but keeps pushing it further out. Was showing Sunday as the day 2 days ago. Monday yesterday. Tuesday Wednesday this morn and tonight Thursday. Hopefully it can settle on a day and we get some real storms.

Yes I saw that this afternoon and my jaw dropped. -8 Li forecast for NZ is absolutely insane!
I doubt it will hold, but output from the GFS for NZ that extreme is amazing.

Yes, next week could be interesting, very moist air showing with the incoming trough, something to watch

Airmass is looking drier now for this weekend, instability dropping away in the model, hopefully it will reverse.

A fine afternoon here, some low top Cb over southwestern parts of Ak

Im around Auckland on Friday and free to chase all day. Staying at Ibis at the Airport Thursday night. Friday is a free day for me, have rental car but will end up somewere close(ish) to whakatane for white island unless saturday looks insane for storms.

03Stormchaser wrote:Im around Auckland on Friday and free to chase all day. Staying at Ibis at the Airport Thursday night. Friday is a free day for me, have rental car but will end up somewere close(ish) to whakatane for white island unless saturday looks insane for storms.

Neat. Hopefully we can get a good chaser group next week and the storms fire!

I'm 100% free. Unless baby is sick or something.

Hmm, need to check Whiteboard at work to see if I am committed to anything.

Im sooooo tempeted to change my booking and come up thursday morning or wed night...

Do it Steve, represent! lol

03Stormchaser wrote:Im sooooo tempeted to change my booking and come up thursday morning or wed night...

It could be worth it but then again it could all change being so far away.

From my amateur arm chair, this all locks like its frontal anyway? That means embedded hidden storms?

From my amateur arm chair, this all locks like its frontal anyway? That means embedded hidden storms?

To me it has the look of a Hobsonville storm type set up. Possibility of frequent lightning and localised severe weather events.
But we have to keep in mind this is still days away in the modelling.

caching...I can hear the air plane tickets being purchased

03Stormchaser wrote:Im around Auckland on Friday and free to chase all day. Staying at Ibis at the Airport Thursday night. Friday is a free day for me, have rental car but will end up somewere close(ish) to whakatane for white island unless saturday looks insane for storms.

Looks like drier stable air moving in Friday but Bay of Plenty/ Gisborne might be good for a storm on Friday, obviously still a long way out in the modelling.

Taupo web cam http://www.takeabreak.co.nz/accommodati ... .asp?cam=2 some showers developing there

I wonder how far north the showers/storms will get today, as that's the direction they are heading?

Rotorua looks like its about to get a fairly decent one.

Hmmm i wonder if this cell just around the Karipiro area will make it further north? Looks to be developing on a sea breeze convergence. I can see it very well from here and it looks very nice

Taihape is having a thunderstorm.

definitely developing towards Hamilton now.

Good lightning strikes all around me at the moment...

Justout wrote:Good lightning strikes all around me at the moment...

I'm not surprised. I can see lightning from here

Stormy

Yep, seen some good fork lightning with long rolling thunder.