Convective Period- 18th to 23rd Nov

Gobus _WeatherBus · Tue 19/11/2013 23:41

Hi Guys sorry have i have been so busy at work at gobus here some Good storms today before i head off to Tepuke Depot and here some pics are from Tepuke,My Bus depot in Tauranga and my place in Welcome bay sorry for wrong date on the photos i just had wrong date and time on it

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 19/11/2013 23:46

Yes. Jim said on the Weather that you guys had some thunderstorms over the WE on the telly at the motel we were staying @ in "Oh Ahh Mar Roo"
Didn't really seem to mind.
More fun down here with penny-farthings and Steampunk

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Wed 20/11/2013 06:06

I shot up the Kaimais when I finally got clear of commitments at Tauranga Hospital.

I was looking over Rotorua way where it looked better on the way, but chose the Kaimai's to get into the Waikato based on Radar/TOA action.

Once at the summit I waited at the Waikato side observation point and tried unsuccessfully to get updated data. Saw very little but heard some great thunder from embedded stuff.

Headed back towards Tauranga and drove down through some of the heaviest rain I've driven in, saw a couple of good CG's too.

Sadly it never made it in to Tauranga, darn Kaimai Force Field

Might go up and grab the car camera's card in a bit and copy off it's contents to see what the recordings look like.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 20/11/2013 06:53

Warmer upper levels and a freash NE shut the Waikato down today. GFS rainfall chart for this afternoon. Seems Waitomo could be good if the sea breeze kicks in. As always with gfs charts, the rainfall distribution is relevant but the totals are shown are not accurate.

Manukau heads obs · Wed 20/11/2013 06:57

yesterday was 3.6c warmer than normal (for the whole 24 hours) here
thats some of the biggest numbers I have seen
no wonder we got a good thunderstorm

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 20/11/2013 08:07

Photo of hail falling at Bombay.

Not a great day for photography yesterday because there was a lot of cloud cover .
I will have to buy a lightning trigger for my camera

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Wed 20/11/2013 08:11

So jealous of your rain Tim, guess ill just have to keep watering all the new garden we have put in round the house.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Wed 20/11/2013 09:52

jamie wrote:So jealous of your rain Tim, guess ill just have to keep watering all the new garden we have put in round the house.

It pritty much came all at once and did create some minor surface flooding, not sure how good that is for new planted plants.

Looks like we have another Mod to High risk of storm on Thursday, but this time it will be westerly focused. Te Awamutu is looking like a good place......

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Wed 20/11/2013 10:08

Today looks as though there is an outside chance for here but really not worth holding much hope for it.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Wed 20/11/2013 10:35

jamie wrote:Today looks as though there is an outside chance for here but really not worth holding much hope for it.

Yea unfortunate eh, as NZStorm said, Waikato has warmer upper level temps today. This will limit how high the convection can go. If we look at 500mb temps go, its like yesterday around -17 to -18C however the air above that breaches the Saturated Adiabatic Lapse rate. Which means there wont be much activity above that level which means it will be a shower setup.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 20/11/2013 13:21

No convergence here today with the gusty NE breeze, conditions on the warm side, small towering Cu around.
I see Hutt Valley is on 26C

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Wed 20/11/2013 17:26

Tornado Tim wrote:Looks like we have another Mod to High risk of storm on Thursday, but this time it will be westerly focused. Te Awamutu is looking like a good place......

Sweet, Starting in Hamilton and finishing in Taumaranui tomorrow. Bummer for having to try to work if it rains, but at least I might get to see something.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 20/11/2013 18:10

Widespread shower activity over the North Island again but not much thunder activity by the looks. The upper level warming has moved in fairly quickly today.

Manukau heads obs · Wed 20/11/2013 18:23

reports from locals of between 25 and 50mm , just a few kms north of me, from that slow moving CB yesterday

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Wed 20/11/2013 18:52

tgsnoopy wrote:
Sweet, Starting in Hamilton and finishing in Taumaranui tomorrow. Bummer for having to try to work if it rains, but at least I might get to see something.

The further you head south the better. Taumaranui is a good spot for potential activity tomorrow.
The warmer upper air hangs around for a while in the Waikato, which is a pity. Inland Taranaki and Waitomo look the best chance for storms over the next few days but looking at the models its very border-line instability.
Heavy showers with a low risk of a storm in Northland on Saturday.

Sunday looks quite potent at this stage (Lots and lots of forecasted latent heat)!

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 20/11/2013 19:23

Doesn't look very good on gfs until the weekend.

GFS Sunday looks great but will it hold up in future runs of GFS?

GreggWard · Unread post by **GreggWard** » Wed 20/11/2013 20:54

NZstorm wrote:Widespread shower activity over the North Island again but not much thunder activity by the looks. The upper level warming has moved in fairly quickly today.

Things didn't really fire like they were expected to, in inland Manawatu. There were large shower clouds around, but I never witnessed any lightning. Now that I see your comment NZstorm that would explain why. Thanks.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Wed 20/11/2013 21:04

Wow Sundays forecast is something I can't see holding. Doubt it will be there the next run. But it does look bloody nice.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 20/11/2013 21:07

Our weather is set to turn humid from the weekend
Dewpoint chart for Sunday

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 21/11/2013 06:33

Convective rainfall chart for this afternoon/evening.

Looks like mainly just showers. Canterbury could be the best spot for a possible thunderstorm today.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 21/11/2013 06:54

Looks like a warm front may affect Northland on Saturday with embedded thunder possible. Ukmet has it over Auckland Saturday night.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Thu 21/11/2013 07:17

I'll be working close to CHCH today so hopefully something comes of it later.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Thu 21/11/2013 09:01

Look at the GFS for next week! Some real juicy numbers for the north island in terms of convection starting Monday and going for the most of the working week. I'm enjoying this more active weather period we are going through.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 21/11/2013 09:45

Yes, great to have this pattern this time of year.

Showery here this morning, only light showers at my place but there are some big cumulus around.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Thu 21/11/2013 14:33

Man I'm sure I heard thunder a few minutes ago. No real clouds that look like they could produce a storm. Strange!

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