General December Weather

[GreggWard]

I think I will chase today. On the southern side of the central plateau. Not the best chase country through. Just have to find a high spot on the road and watch from there.

Jamie, if you want some company, I can drive up your way, from Palmy. I was going to see how the Manawatu panned out, this afternoon, but things are still pretty cloudy here.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Constant Drizzle all morning here, thick too. Another 10mm so far (seems to be much heavier in Southern CHCH, having ventured out into town twice this morning. That's now 30mm for this system so far.

[jamie]

Cloudy here still. Will only chase once I see stuff get going.

Gregg check your PM re chasing.

[GreggWard]

Looks like a couple of heavy showers have just popped up on the Central Plateau, in the last 0.5hr.

[spwill]

Yes, some heavy showers have developed over some inland areas. That cloud cover will hinder.

[tgsnoopy]

Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Thursday 26 Dec 2013

Issued at: 8:39am Thursday 26 Dec 2013

An upper low is forecast to move eastwards across the North Island this afternoon and evening. This will result in widespread shower activity over the central and lower North Island, and over the upper South Island.

Temperatures aloft will be coldest over the central and eastern North Island,and there is now a high risk of afternoon and evening thunderstorms about central North Island areas from Gisborne through the central high country to inland Taranaki and down through Hawkes Bay to inland Manawatu. These thunderstorms are likely to be fairly slow moving and therefore have the potential to produce localised heavy rain or downpours, along with moderate sized hail. Rainfall rates should generally be in the 10-25mm/hr range, but there is a moderate risk of ISOLATED SEVERE thunderstorms delivering higher intensities in the 25-40mm/hr range. In addition, the risk of ISOLATED SEVERE thunderstorms is considered higher from the Taupo area to Bay of Plenty to Gisborne and these are likely to last longer into the evening hours before dissipating. There is a lower risk of thunderstorms in a surrounding envelope generally south of Waikato and northern Coromandel Peninsula.

In the South Island, the risk of afternoon thunderstorms over inland Nelson,parts of Buller and western parts of Marlborough is considered moderate with some local rainfall rates in the 10-20mm/hr range. These storms are expected to dissipate by early evening.

Elsewhere, no thunderstorms or significant convection expected.

756c-1432d7cf300-1432ec68a00-1432b449cae.0.png

[tgsnoopy]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Valid to: 9:00pm Thursday 26 Dec 2013
Issued at: 9:17am Thursday 26 Dec 2013

7599-1432b673260-2839da0-1432b673260.0.png

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

Issued by MetService at 09:17 am Thursday 26 December 2013
Valid until 09:00 pm Thursday 26 December 2013
This watch affects people in the following weather forecast districts:
Waikato
Waitomo
Taumarunui
Bay of Plenty
Rotorua
Taupo
Gisborne
Hawkes Bay
Taranaki
Taihape
Wanganui
Manawatu
Tararua

Conditions are unstable today over the central and lower North Island as a pool of cold air aloft gradually moves northeast through the day. Widespread shower activity is expected, with a high risk of scattered thunderstorms from this afternoon from inland Taranaki to western Bay of Plenty, about the central plateau and from inland Manawatu to Gisborne. Some of these thunderstorms are likely to become SEVERE but will be ISOLATED with rainfall rates of 25-40mm/hr possible due to slow storm motions. The risk of ISOLATED SEVERE storms is highest from the central plateau to western Bay of Plenty to Gisborne, with storms in these areas lasting into mid evening before dissipating. Further east, heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to clear late afternoon or early evening.

Rainfalls of this intensity can cause flash flooding, especially about low-lying areas such as streams, rivers or narrow valleys, and may also lead to slips. Driving conditions will also be hazardous with surface flooding and poor visibility in heavy rain.

Note: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favourable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. People in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for possible Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Issued by: Paul Mallinson
This watch will be updated by: 02:00 pm Thursday 26 December 2013

[tgsnoopy]

Last 2 posts for the record, in case it does go off. Good luck guys.

[Storm Struck]

A lot drier out this way even had some sun glimpses around midday, but not raining just overcast.
Should be similar tomorrow but with long sunny intervals from afternoon I am picking, and to me the weekend is much nicer than the MS says as it will be more inland heat showers and thunderstorms on both sat/sun.
Monday and New Years day look to be good thunder/hail set ups for Canterbury at this stage anyway.

[03Stormchaser]

A lot drier out this way even had some sun glimpses around midday, but not raining just overcast.
Should be similar tomorrow but with long sunny intervals from afternoon I am picking, and to me the weekend is much nicer than the MS says as it will be more inland heat showers and thunderstorms on both sat/sun.
Monday and New Years day look to be good thunder/hail set ups for Canterbury at this stage anyway.

I've got my eye on a couple days there as well Jase. Between now and the 6th Jan I am pretty keen to chase anything. Even happy to head down to Otago / West Coast if need be.

[spwill]

Just arrived in Tirau, South Waikato, very loud thunder just now, heavy shower arriving.

[jamie]

Looks good in the Waikato.

Nothing happening here.

[tgsnoopy]

Thought it was going to be further South than that. Unfortunately I'm unable to chase today. Bit distracted and on call.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Persistent drizzle here today which is really appreciated after yesterday dumping of rain from the afternoon.
Instead of the sun coming out and drying everything out, this cloud cover with the occasional drizzle shower is keeping garden/ ground conditions rather greenish for this time of year.

[GreggWard]

A bit of a fizzer down this way. There just seemed to be too much cloud around, for too long, to get things going. I was going to try and meet Jamie in Taihape but got to Hunterville and it just didn't look like there was going to be anything worth trying to chase.

[GreggWard]

Looks like a good storm to the SE of Rotorua, at the moment.

[jamie]

SE of Rotorua around the lakes has been the place to be this December. They have had the best and most frequent storms.

[spwill]

Storms developed north of Taupo without much heating yesterday afternoon/evening, perhaps there was better cold air/ moisture overlap there. I observed occasional thunder/lightning through the late afternoon between Tirau and Te Aroha with on going heavy showers there. A few pics.

[Richard]

Some good dramatic photos there spwill

A heavy overcast morning with a bit of light drizzle about,i wouldn't mind some sun later

[Nev]

I kinda like that last shot.


On another note, 'A wild year of unpredictable weather', according to a review by Stuff yesterday...

'Drought, storms and warmer than ever winter'

[NZstorm]

Good effort to chase yesterday Spwill.

In Queenstown where skies are clear this morning. Hoping to catch a thunderstorm or two in the coming days in the south.

[Dean.]

Some good dramatic photos there spwill

A heavy overcast morning with a bit of light drizzle about,i wouldn't mind some sun later

Agree as Im about to head to Hanmer for a week of camping.
Looks better from Monday with the northwest forecast.

[03Stormchaser]

I think you have something on your lens Simon!

Nice photos

[Tornado Tim]

Sunday the 29th looks like a stormy day. However it looks tied up in a moist NW flow so cloud cover could be a potential problem.

[spwill]

I think you have something on your lens Simon!

I am a bit slack. I should also take video. Some of you guys do a great job with the photography