jamie wrote:Chasing Waikato hauraki and Auckland tomorrow. What ever delivers. Anyone else?
I think I may do....... I know Ricky is too, so perhaps might have a meet up. Would be good to see Steven and Simon as well if possible...
Brian are you thinking about it too?
Looking promising for not only much of the North Island but many inland South Island areas tomorrow also.
A warm humid air-mass will cover most of New Zealand on Sunday, with daytime cloud buildups producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northern and central North Island, and also inland South Island areas.
In the North Island, the most unstable area extends from western Northland and Auckland through to the central North Island, Gisborne and Hawkes Bay. Within this region, there is a moderate risk of isolated thunderstorms, many of which will be severe producing localised downpours of 20-40mm/hr and hail possibly up to 2cm diameter. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely to be issued for these areas on Sunday. A lesser risk covers inland parts of Taranaki, Taumarunui,Wanganui and northern Wairarapa as indicated on the chart.
In the South Island, scattered afternoon and evening showers along with a few thunderstorms are expected about many northern and eastern areas. The main risk of thunderstorms is about the ranges of Marlborough and Canterbury, with a lower risk covering other areas as indicated on the chart. Localised heavy rain and small hail will accompany any thunderstorms that do occur.
No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand on Sunday, although a Severe Weather Warning is in force for heavy rain about northern Fiordland and southern Westland.
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Dewpoint plot shows drier air coming onto the North Island from the west. Looks like the best moisture this afternoon is Northland to Coromandel to BOP to Gisborne axis. Auckland sounding shows a drying trend through the afternoon.
From an Auckland/Waikato perspective Coromandal would be the best bet for a storm chase today I'm thinking.
GFS 4pm surface dewpoint.
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Current weather here is fine, 20C, dewpoint 18C, a light southwest breeze currently suggests any storm activity will be east of here. I will certainly be heading out this afternoon.
