NZ Weather Forum

Its still very early out but i see some models are pointing to a wet Christmas day for the east of the SI and top of the NI.
Might take two people to do the barbe this year,second person to hold the brolly over the BBQ

Put the whole country under a rain risk for Xmas day. Still too early for the detail, depends on how a Low system moves.

for the upper NI ,
will only be showers (with fine intervals) I would say for the upper NI

rain never comes to much out of west normally at this time of year for the upper NI

just look at today..was supposed to be a period of rain here originaly in the forecast
(came through during the night)

A bit of a cool upper trough there for Christmas and Boxing day so somewhere will get a thunderstorm. Its a lottery at this stage to say exactly where.

Looking rather messy through the xmas/new year period well in Canterbury anyway which I am sure will go down well with the campers.. , I must say though we have had some good xmas days the last 4-5 years possibly due for a wet one would be a cool xmas present if got thunderstorms

Looks less threatening now with model agreement for the Low to pass south of the country, a cooler airmass over the South Island with an afternoon shower risk over the high country and showers about the southwest coast, a front to cross the North Island with the chance of a brief spell of rain or showers, GFS showing 18 dewpoint for Auckland Christmas Day so possibly humid over the north.

Metvuw charts show good rain on boxing day for most of Canterbury with a SE flow, im sure I will change with it being all over the place at the moment.

Yes, a significant upper trough there for Xmas.

500mb heights/msl pressure Dec 25th.

A thunder/hail set up for xmas eve areas south of Christchurch down the coast, and yeah showery and cooler on xmas day at this stage.

Yes, some changes in the modelling last couple of days, colder upper level temperatures over the South Island with the general flow tending onshore along the east coast, widespread shower activity tending to clear in the west/southwest with the flow change. The front over the North Island moves through earlier in the day now.

Think rather have the rain or drizzle least you can wear a coat instead of the bbq flying away to chile lol though a calm dry day be best.

For Auckland the Front is out the way by lunch time.

Yes, appears to be a thunder set up for east of the South Island on Xmas eve. But the upper level temperatures not unduly cold so it is highly conditional. Dunedin looks best placed to catch a storm.

Christmas day thunderstorm set up looks like Nelson and east of North Island. And possibly a severe hail risk for Nelson region

Am i right to say the shear looks quite good though on tuesday?? going by the christchurch sounding??
to far away to tell but monday dec 30th shows real cold upper air down south.. wonder where thats going to go in the coming days.. if its comes straight up we would be looking at a good chance of storms new years eve

I think Xmas Day afternoon will be okay for Auckland, sunshine /cloud mix, only isolated showers so a chance of a dry afternoon, a fresh southwesterly , temp low 20s.

Classic.

In case there's any temptation to be somewhat dismal about the weather: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TM1XusYVqNY

(wasn't expecting that)

Thankyou, moylanr - that was lovely

I cant remember a Christmas that there's been thunder&lighning,hopefully tomorrow will be the first time,thank goodness we are not going to the rellies in CHCH but staying instead otherwise i would have had to pull out the "cant go,storms due"

Merry christmas to all of you and hope everyone has a fantastic day, eat and drink lots, go hard! in terms of the weather today.. thunder/hail set up probably more up north canterbury into nelson region, very low risk that christchurch south will get storms, would be nice though.

Have a great day guys

Thanks Mike and to everyone else too,have a lovely day with family&friends,

A storm today would be the bestest present of all, a strong NW here overnight,still breezy now but not as bad as it was.

Morning all, have a great and safe day today whatever your doing.....

A belt of heavy rain came around 6.30 AM, seems it was the cold front moving up. Hopefully it turn out finer later on today.

Merry Xmas all. High cloud here in South Canterbury, not expecting rain here (Timaru) but there will be some convection inland Canterbury today.

Rain just arrived here... hopefully we'll get a good 10mm or so

Wishing all a great day. Yes, much needed rain has arrived, perhaps less welcome today being Xmas day.

Thunderstorms possible for central/eastern NI tomorrow.

Radar would suggest rain in timaru soon, im off to lake benmore for a few days so I hope the rain stays away but some thunder would be good.