NZ Weather Forum

Flooding - Road Closure - SH25 & Hot Water Beach Road, Whenuakite. - National Alerts

Due to flooding at the intersection of State Highway 25 and Hot Water Beach Road, Whenuakite, the intersection is now closed to all traffic.

High tide is due at around 4:30pm and the flooding is likely to increase.

The intersection will remain in closed, including the affected area, until approximately 7:00pm this evening.

Police advice to all motorists is to avoid the area and to take an alternative route or delay your travel.

The affected area is approximately half-way between Tairua and Whitianga.

Inspector Steve Kose
Shift Commander
Police Northern Communications Centre

Heavy rain now here in Henderson, no thunder now

what it looked like at the peak from waiuku

A nice shower line formed in the west early to mid afternoon but with only very isolated thunderstorm activity. Looks much better Waitomo way this evening. Southland has some storms as well. Max temp today was23C, dewpoint 18C.
A couple of photos from west Auckland

Might pack up the tent and head south.Still raining in Hanmer, everything saturated

Well looking at the models tomorrow id be picking a moderate risk over much of the south island for storms.
the humid air mass combined with cooling upper air aloft and a SW change should trigger storms but its the cloud cover id be concernd about if anything.

Watched the convection over inland Otago this afternoon. Quote a bit of lightning but low precip type thunderstorms. Will put some pics up in a day or two.

Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Sunday 29 Dec 2013

Issued at: 1:30pm Sunday 29 Dec 2013

Updated at 1.30pm Sunday to add a moderate risk of SEVERE thunderstorms for this afternoon and early evening over western parts of the North Island from Northland to Taranaki and also over Southland, inland Otago and the Canterbury High Country.

An active front and associated band of very heavy rain is currently moving slowly eastwards over Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne this afternoon and evening. Localised downpours of 25 to 50mm per hour are possible in these areas and a Severe Weather Warning is in force.

There is a moderate risk of isolated thunderstorms over other northern and western parts of the North Island this afternoon from western Northland down to northern Manawatu associated with daytime heating and wind convergences. Any thunderstorms that eventuate here are likely to produce localised heavy rain of 15 to 25mm per hour and small hail. One or two of these thunderstorms could be SEVERE producing localised downpours of 25 to 40mm per hour and a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH has been issued. There is a broader low risk of thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening over many other parts of the North Island.

Over the South Island, sea breeze convergences are expected in the south and west, along with cold temperatures in the upper atmosphere. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms from the Canterbury High Country down to inland Otago and Southland. Any thunderstorms that occur here are also likely to produce localised heavy rain of 15 to 25mm per hour. Again, one or two thunderstorms here could be SEVERE and produce localised downpours of 25 to 40mm per hour and a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH has also been issued for these areas. Finally, a broader low risk of thunderstorms extends over many other inland parts of the South Island, as indicated on the chart.
Valid to: Noon Monday 30 Dec 2013

Issued at: 11:05am Sunday 29 Dec 2013

The active front mentioned above is forecast to clear eastern Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne by dawn Monday, with the heavy rain there clearing. There is however a moderate risk of localised downpours and thunderstorms for these areas in the early hours of Monday, with a low risk over the remainder of Bay of Plenty, Gisborne and also northern Hawkes Bay.

A weakening low is forecast to cross central New Zealand during the morning with another front moving onto Westland towards midday. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms over Waitomo, Taranaki and western parts of the South Island from Westland to northwest Nelson and the Marlborough Sounds later in the morning,with a broader low risk extending further east and south, as indicated on the chart. Any thunderstorms that eventuate here are expected to produce localised heavy rain up to 25mm per hour.

Elsewhere, no thunderstorms or significant convection expected.
Valid to: Midnight Monday 30 Dec 2013

Issued at: 11:04am Sunday 29 Dec 2013

The second front mentioned above is forecast to cross much of New Zealand during the afternoon and evening. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms over northwest Nelson, Buller and northern Westland during the afternoon as the front crosses, with a low risk extending across to Marlborough, the Canterbury High Country and down to Fiordland. There is also a low risk of isolated thunderstorms about eastern parts of Otago and South Canterbury during the afternoon as an associated weak low crosses these areas. Any thunderstorms that eventuate in all the above areas are expected to produce localised heavy rain of 10 to 25mm per hour and possibly small hail.

Meanwhile, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms over inland parts of the lower North Island from Taranaki and Taihape down to the Tararua Range during the afternoon. Any thunderstorms that occur here are also likely to produce localised heavy rain up to 25mm per hour. There is also a broader low risk area of thunderstorms over the North Island extending from Waikato, Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty southwards, as indicated on the chart. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms or significant convection expected.

Will see what the 9pm update Is like from MS, but regardless of cloud cover which I don't think will be too much of an issue tomorrow afternoon its looking reasonably good and I would definatly at the least pick a moderate risk down the coast from even Christchurch down to Timaru ( maybe a high risk between Timaru and Ashburton ).

A mainly dry afternoon in the end here makes a change and even had a few glimpses of sun, if the sun had of come out properly it would have been a very muggy warm day.
Looks like about 6-7 different brief but fast moving cells over southland/otago this afternoon from what I seen on the radars.

Greylynn showing 7.4mm last hr, some old Cb moving across central Auckland

Storms over Otago/Southland were slow moving today Jason.

I agree some storms should fire in east Otago
Canterbury tomorrow but cloud cover will limit CAPE.

Saw a bit of IC lightning from this storm that I just chased SW of Ohakea AFB. The whole storm was moving quite quickly in a southerly direction.

Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Noon Monday 30 Dec 2013

Issued at: 8:18pm Sunday 29 Dec 2013

The active front is forecast to clear eastern Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne by dawn, with the heavy rain and possible localised downpours clearing.

A weakening low is forecast to cross central New Zealand around midday, with another front moving through Fiordland and Westland during the morning. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms over Waitomo, Taranaki and western parts of the South Island from northwest Nelson to Westland. These thunderstorms may produce localised rainfall rates of 10 to 25mm/hr. A broader low risk of thunderstorms extends from Fiordland, over the remainder of Nelson, and from Wanganui to Northland as indicated on the chart.

Elsewhere, no thunderstorms or significant convection expected.
Valid to: Midnight Monday 30 Dec 2013

Issued at: 8:29pm Sunday 29 Dec 2013

As the low moves across central New Zealand in the early afternoon, there is a low risk of a few thunderstorms from about Waikato and Bay of Plenty to Wellington and Nelson. However, the risk is considered to be moderate from inland Taranaki and Wanganui across to Tararua District and the Wairarapa. In addition, as the front moves across the northwest of the South Island in the early afternoon, there is a moderate risk of a few thunderstorms from northern Westland to northwest Nelson. These thunderstorms may produce localised rainfall rates of 10 to 25mm/hr.

The front is expected to move across Otago and Canterbury late afternoon and early evening, with an associated southerly change forecast to trigger showers in eastern Otago and the south Canterbury foothills. In these areas there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms, which may produce localised heavy rain and small hail.

Finally, a cold trough in the upper atmosphere is likely to move across southern New Zealand from late afternoon, bringing a low risk of a few thunderstorms to Fiordland.

No thunderstorms expected over the remainder of New Zealand.

Low-mod risk I think in the Waikato.
Lapse rate is sufficient for some IC lightning anyway in any significant convection.

Looks like there is convergence line right above me. Showers forming on it now

I see of the 119mm that fell at Whitianga Aero yesterday morn, 47mm fell in 1 hr and 77mm in 2 hrs.

Whangaparaoa also recorded 30mm in the hour to 6am from the 51mm that fell there early yesterday.

pic of cb over West Otago yesterday. Quite a bit of thunder from this.

Wide angle of a cb near Gore. This storm had LP structure and I observed good inflow as I neared.

Conditions did look ripe for the storm you observed Steven. Nice photos.

Chance of a chase later today

Nice timlapse sent to SC from a storm just outside Riverton yesterday

Nice Video!

More of a moderate risk south of Waikato in this morn's T-Storm Outlook update for today…

MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Monday 30 Dec 2013
Issued at: 9:07am Monday 30 Dec 2013

A weakening low to the west of Taranaki is forecast to move southeast and cross central New Zealand this afternoon, while an associated trough crosses the North Island. Showers are expected for much of the North Island this afternoon as the trough crosses and there is a broad low risk of isolated thunderstorms from Waikato, southern Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty southwards. However,this risk of thunderstorms is considered moderate from inland Bay of Plenty down through the central high country to Wairarapa, as indicated on the chart. Any thunderstorms that eventuate here are likely to produce localised heavy rain of 10 to 25mm/hr.

Meanwhile, a front is forecast to move onto the South Island West Coast this morning and cross much of the South Island this afternoon before weakening as it moves onto the North Island this evening. There is a moderate risk of embedded thunderstorms over Westland, Buller and northwest Nelson later this morning and early afternoon as the front crosses, with a low risk over Fiordland and extending eastwards into the remainder of Nelson, much of Marlborough and the Canterbury High Country. Any thunderstorms that eventuate here are also likely to produce localised heavy rain of 10 to 25mm/hr, especially about the ranges.

A southerly change is expected to spread northwards through eastern Otago later this afternoon and south and mid-Canterbury this evening. There is a low risk of isolated thunderstorms triggering on this change, although this risk is considered moderate about eastern parts of Otago, as indicated on the chart. Any thunderstorms that occur here are likely to produce localised heavy rain of 10 to 20mm/hr and hail of 5 to 10mm in diameter.

Finally, cold upper level temperatures are forecast to spread onto southern New Zealand late this afternoon and evening, bringing a moderate risk of thunderstorms to Fiordland. Any thunderstorms here are likely to produce localised heavy rain up to 15mm/hr and small hail.

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere.

MetService T-Storm Outlook Map - Is. Dec 30, 9.07am.0.png

I see that someone caught a picture of the papamoa tornado

http://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/61124-min ... oding.html

cool

Nice video.

Cool shot of the Papamoa tornado with a small amount of debris being thrown around.

TCu forming along sea breeze boundary, to the W-SW of Palmy. Clouds moving in a southerly direction. Temp currently 23C with DP at 14C.