General January weather

[Orion]

Beetles again, Richard?

[spwill]

The trough early next week is something to watch for thunder over the North Island/ upper South Island given the level of incoming moisture. There is model variation with this but something to watch.
GFS showing dps up to 20C upper NI Sunday

[NZstorm]

GFS rainfall for the next 7 days. Looks like the South Island will get a good soaking Sunday Monday. The far north of the country will stay dry and I think that will verify.

[melja]

Yeah but the west of the island not east.

Another great summer overnight low of 4C here.

[spwill]

GFS has been struggling with next week.
A holiday weekend coming up for Northland/Auckland so any dry weather would be good

[jamie]

yep dont think ill make 20mm for the month of Jan

[Richard]

Another great summer overnight low of 4C here.

gees thats a cold one for down there,last evenings SW didn't make it this far so the NW kept up all night,didn't go below 12deg

[melja]

Even CHCH airport was on 4.8C when I got up.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Another great summer overnight low of 4C here.

gees thats a cold one for down there,last evenings SW didn't make it this far so the NW kept up all night,didn't go below 12deg

Down to 2.7C here

[NZstorm]

Thunder looking possible over the North Island tomorrow as a strong upper level system crosses in the afternoon evening. Cool mid level temps and very moist low level air produces some CAPE. So hopefully some embedded storms which could be elevated also. Looks to be sufficient shear/moisture there for a waterspout tornado risk in the Bay of Plenty.

[tgsnoopy]

Gutted. I have a committee Meeting in Hamilton tomorrow afternoon. Middle of a holiday weekend & on the day of the local airshow. I feel an apology might be brewing.

[Richard]

Gutted. I have a committee Meeting in Hamilton tomorrow afternoon. Middle of a holiday weekend & on the day of the local airshow. I feel an apology might be brewing.

Could you not just put in the odd,"i'll second that" while you've got your head out the window.

[David]

Thunder looking possible over the North Island tomorrow as a strong upper level system crosses in the afternoon evening. Cool mid level temps and very moist low level air produces some CAPE. So hopefully some embedded storms which could be elevated also. Looks to be sufficient shear/moisture there for a waterspout tornado risk in the Bay of Plenty.

Regardless of whether we get a storm, it's looking good for some rain anyway Maybe 10-15mm. When I last checked the GFS it was showing very little precip for the rest of Jan.

[Richard]

Ended up reaching 30deg before the NW wind change,bit of summer at last,

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Ended up reaching 30deg before the NW wind change,bit of summer at last,

Summery today, but who wants the hot weather?
I'm sick of it. Glad it only got to 22C today instead of the 28C whatever predicted.

[Dean.]

Guess it makes a difference being 20kms inland...27 today,good to have some nice summer weather

[Richard]

Ended up reaching 30deg before the NW wind change,bit of summer at last,

Summery today, but who wants the hot weather?

Anything over 35 too much really.
Looking at the models for the next week, inland areas are in for some high temps

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Actually it only got up to 23C.

[spwill]

I was at Eden Park for the cricket yesterday, the NE wind on top of the West Stand was cold, where is summer this year ? but a fantastic game.
The pattern ahead is looking anticyclonic with plenty of dry weather after today

[Orion]

Stiffish southerly has arrived, with a bit of rain and strong gusts.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

SW through here around 4pm. None of this heavy rain rubbish

[Orion]

Raining well here

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Raining well here

I'll have to "eat my hat" now as it is pouring down now
EDIT: Interesting rain this is, now easing off, it's 'Southerly rain from the north" , if there's such a thing.?

[Richard]

Wonder if the wind change will make it this far north

[Richard]

Wonder if the wind change will make it this far north

Yep,quite a strong SW too